StormRaven
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
By calculating odds. There are many, the main ones to concern yourself with are pot odds and hand odds (you already did a thread about implied odds).
Pot odds are simple:
Player 1 bets 150 into a pot of 300
Player 2 would have to put in 150 for a pot containing 450, 450/150= 3. You are getting 3 to 1 pot odds to make the call.
*FedEx is here - be back to finish this later or someone else can jump in.
Pot odds are simple:
Player 1 bets 150 into a pot of 300
Player 2 would have to put in 150 for a pot containing 450, 450/150= 3. You are getting 3 to 1 pot odds to make the call.
*FedEx is here - be back to finish this later or someone else can jump in.
sammyfive
Rock Star
Silver Level
SO if you have 3 to 1 pot odds, your odds of making your hand must be less than that. This is something that plays itself out in the long run. Sometimes you gotta wait for variance to even out before you make money off pot odds. Sometimes you hit your hand every time and go on invincibility tilt like I do. 
Weregoat
Visionary
Silver Level
Basically you put your opponent on a hand, an over pocket pair, two pair, a straight draw, a flush draw, but generally when calculating odds, you want your opponent to be on a made hand and you want to be drawing against them. Suppose you have Ts9s on a board that reads AsTc7s, and your opponent raised preflop, and has bet out on the action on the flop.
You put him on AK. Provided you are right, you have 2 T's to make trips, 3x 9's to make two pair, and 9 spades to make the better flush. If an 8, 6, or J comes you also pick up an out on the turn to make a straight (the ideal straight card for you would be the 8 on the turn, however be careful of getting priced in. As a rule of thumb you should know better than to chase inside straights or draw to runners).
So you count up your outs (2 Ts, 3 9s, 9 spades, or 2+3+9=14), and consider the chances of your card coming out on the turn. (As a general rule of thumb, I use a switch no larger than the width of my thumb... But also you can multiply the number of outs you have by 2 to get your percentage. However the correct math is available on the forum, which involves number of known cards, number of known outs, but overall you're rounding and simplifying large choppy numbers. I'd give myself about 30% to improve on the turn in this case, and be likely to call anything but a huge overbet. If your opponent bets the pot, you are getting 2:1 on your money. But since he has a pair of aces and probably thinks it's best, he's not likely to bet the pot, since he is going to call. He will probably bet less than the pot. Look at his bet, compare it to the size of the pot.
Ideally, you want what you put into the pot to be comparable to your chances of winning, or less. However, keep in mind that if your spade comes, or your 9 comes, he's likely to bet again. So you have to take into account that there will be a larger bet on the turn. Or another bet for value if he thinks the card doesn't help you, like the 9 for instance. But if the T hits, he might not bet again, especially if he puts you on the T.
So you have to keep in mind that if you made your hand, you're likely to get more money. These go into two different catagories, expressed and implied odds, and really go into the game of drawing in hold'em.
And it's not within the scope of my understanding of poker math to go too indepth. I could discuss outs and drawing with you for hours, but you should probably pick up a good poker book instead.
Generally speaking I would call just about any bet in the exampel given with a deep stack against another deep stack, or in a multi-way pot. (Especially then, becuase your odds, both expressed and implied, are so much better).
Also, you have to take into consideration that 1: you may have less outs than you counted. 2: You maybe have more outs than you counted, and 3: you may be ahead. Also, you may be drawing dead.
I think that answers your question.
You put him on AK. Provided you are right, you have 2 T's to make trips, 3x 9's to make two pair, and 9 spades to make the better flush. If an 8, 6, or J comes you also pick up an out on the turn to make a straight (the ideal straight card for you would be the 8 on the turn, however be careful of getting priced in. As a rule of thumb you should know better than to chase inside straights or draw to runners).
So you count up your outs (2 Ts, 3 9s, 9 spades, or 2+3+9=14), and consider the chances of your card coming out on the turn. (As a general rule of thumb, I use a switch no larger than the width of my thumb... But also you can multiply the number of outs you have by 2 to get your percentage. However the correct math is available on the forum, which involves number of known cards, number of known outs, but overall you're rounding and simplifying large choppy numbers. I'd give myself about 30% to improve on the turn in this case, and be likely to call anything but a huge overbet. If your opponent bets the pot, you are getting 2:1 on your money. But since he has a pair of aces and probably thinks it's best, he's not likely to bet the pot, since he is going to call. He will probably bet less than the pot. Look at his bet, compare it to the size of the pot.
Ideally, you want what you put into the pot to be comparable to your chances of winning, or less. However, keep in mind that if your spade comes, or your 9 comes, he's likely to bet again. So you have to take into account that there will be a larger bet on the turn. Or another bet for value if he thinks the card doesn't help you, like the 9 for instance. But if the T hits, he might not bet again, especially if he puts you on the T.
So you have to keep in mind that if you made your hand, you're likely to get more money. These go into two different catagories, expressed and implied odds, and really go into the game of drawing in hold'em.
And it's not within the scope of my understanding of poker math to go too indepth. I could discuss outs and drawing with you for hours, but you should probably pick up a good poker book instead.
Generally speaking I would call just about any bet in the exampel given with a deep stack against another deep stack, or in a multi-way pot. (Especially then, becuase your odds, both expressed and implied, are so much better).
Also, you have to take into consideration that 1: you may have less outs than you counted. 2: You maybe have more outs than you counted, and 3: you may be ahead. Also, you may be drawing dead.
I think that answers your question.
IcyBlueAce
Visionary
Platinum Level
It sure helps, thanks!
M
marknz88
Rock Star
Silver Level
Check this link out if you havent already - https://www.cardschat.com/odds-for-dummies.php
I use the rule of 4 and 2 to calculate the rough odds..This rule is based on multiplying the number of outs left after the flop by 4 for your odds on the turn, and then multiplying you outs again by 2 for your odds on the river of making your hand
I use the rule of 4 and 2 to calculate the rough odds..This rule is based on multiplying the number of outs left after the flop by 4 for your odds on the turn, and then multiplying you outs again by 2 for your odds on the river of making your hand
G
Goinfordamill
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I do as marknz does and multiply my outs by 4 for the turn and then my outs by 2 for the river. I believe if you take into account your implied odds and pot odds then you have a better than average chance of winning the hand. Oh' yeah and pay attention to position and table image.
Weregoat
Visionary
Silver Level
Yep. Do gotta keep in mind when using the rule of 4, that assumes you can't be bet out on the turn. So your 2 outer has an 8% chance of hitting if all your money goes in the pot on the flop, otherwise it has a 4% chance of hitting on the turn, and if you call on the turn you get the other 4%.
Just about every poker book worth it's weight covers pot-odds, some of them go into detail with the exact fractions, I can't rock the exact fractions, I use general math, if I'm off by half a percent then no biggie.
Poker Orifice
FoolsTilt
Platinum Level
I'd recommend reading Phil Gordon's book --> "The Little Green Book". It's a decent book to read (well-written, ez read) & covers all kinds of stuff like this (also along these lines... how you should size your bets on turn & river so that those who might be on a draw aren't getting the right price to call... bet-sizing to have your opponent's making a mistake to call you). Lots of other stuff that is related to this. Book also covers a bunch of other basics, but is a decent book to read. I always recommend it to anyone playing NLHE, especially if they haven't read any NLHE books yet (more geared towards NLHE Tournament play).
W
wetyeti
Rock Star
Silver Level
The Rule of 2 and 4 can be a bit tricky, when your outs are multiplied by 4 that number is only relevant if you see both the turn and the river, not just the turn. Weregoat just explained this but I got antsy and wrote it again!
So with this in mind sometimes Ill just shove if I have a massive amount of outs on the flop. Like if I have KQ suited and the flop is TJ of my suit and a lower card. Id have any suit of my flush, the three non suit 9s, the three non suit As and possibly the 6 remaining Ks or Qs to make the best hand. In this situation Im a slight favorite so I might just ship it all.
I might just fold it too and get away without a fight:creep:
Gordons book is great, the little greenie. Any one read the little bluey?
So with this in mind sometimes Ill just shove if I have a massive amount of outs on the flop. Like if I have KQ suited and the flop is TJ of my suit and a lower card. Id have any suit of my flush, the three non suit 9s, the three non suit As and possibly the 6 remaining Ks or Qs to make the best hand. In this situation Im a slight favorite so I might just ship it all.
I might just fold it too and get away without a fight:creep:
Gordons book is great, the little greenie. Any one read the little bluey?
P
phillyfan810
Enthusiast
Silver Level
RoyalFish
Rock Star
Silver Level
I'm really not a fan of this idea of putting people on hands. Ranges, yes. Hands, no. Take your example, but I'm the villain. My betting pattern is the same regardless of my hole cards. It might vary by villain, like if they're a terribad calling station post flop and raised before the action gets to me, I might not try to push them out pre. Postflop I'm betting the same whether I have AA, AK, AT, A7, TT, T7, or 77, and possibly wider depending on my read on you.
AK is the most common hand we're facing, but it happens like 8-9% of the time. I forget exactly, but last time I looked at my historical data, I remember AKo was 6%. I think being overly specific about villains hole cards leads to mistakes. Tbh, I'm cheering here if I raised pre with 77 or TT, cuz most of the time I'm going to get a lot off somebody with AK and the like who thinks they're good.
RF