How to distinguish between downswing and bad play?

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stephensproject

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I feel like I'm a pretty good player and always base every decision off of the most logical and +EV move, yet I'm losing hand after hand and busting over and over. I first deposited $20 into ACR and Bovada a month or two ago and ran it up to $60 playing 2nl and 5nl. in just a few days. Ever since then I've dropped down to just $17 and it seems like I'm losing every hand and end up busting every session I play. It actually seems like I'm doing worse since actually learning more about poker and thinking through every decision.

I really do believe and am trying to convince myself that this is just a downswing and not the result of my playing. I've never busted by simply losing more and more chips, but it's always losing a significant amount while holding a monster hand. These past 3 days have been brutal, getting busted:

- flopping a set of 2's on incredibly dry board and guy catches set of 6's on the river
- flop a King high flush with KQs, guy catches runner runner Ace high flush with Ax, no pair...
- flopping two pair with AKs, guy goes all in on A3s flush draw and catches the heart on the river
- Guy goes all in with TT, I call with AA and he flops set of 10s

It seems like no matter what hand I hold someone always one ups me, and it's like the more I fear and try to avoid bad beats the more they happen. I'm not claiming to be a pro or incredibly skilled player, so it could be the way I'm playing. So I guess my question is how can you actually distinguish between bad playing and bad beats if you're losing over and over?
 
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RJPisscat

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Easy.

If you are losing over and over, it's a combination, and the thing you can control is the bad play.

Bad luck can snowball into bad play. Take a day off from poker and go to an art museum, or build a bird house. Do something with a different part of your brain and come back to poker the next day with fresh eyes.
 
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Sidetracked

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That is one of the most difficult questions in poker.
 
MattRyder

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I've seen a lot of crazy hands winning and losing this past week. Pocket Aces almost seem like the worst starting hand rather than the best.

It always comes down to BRM though. The more often you lose (regardless of the reason) the more you have to pay attention to your bankroll management. Redepositing should only be a last resort.
 
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karl coakley

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You have 4 bad beats that really aren't that bad....

- flopping a set of 2's on incredibly dry board and guy catches set of 6's on the river
- flop a King high flush with KQs, guy catches runner runner Ace high flush with Ax, no pair...
- flopping two pair with AKs, guy goes all in on A3s flush draw and catches the heart on the river
- Guy goes all in with TT, I call with AA and he flops set of 10s

Not sure how you think its a bad beat when the best starting hand wins...

66 is the favorite over 22....

Ax is the favorite over KQ....

When A3 picks up a flush draw, not that big a dog.

AA vs 1010, it happens 1 out of 5 times.

You have to manage your bankroll in a way that you survive days like that. You are most likely playing too high of a level for your bankroll (5nl).
 
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chronical

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1. I dont know how wide is the example size is 4 hands in 100 or in 10000.but from what you told it's a cooler that you caught. they will happen

2.
66 is the favorite over 22....
Ax is the favorite over KQ....
When A3 picks up a flush draw, not that big a dog.
AA vs 1010, it happens 1 out of 5 times.
`66 vs 22 with set of 2s is ~85% to 15% so it's a bad beat. 2 outs after all
`Ax vs KQ 70% vs 30% again...
`Ax vs AK two pair is a HUGE undre dog 95%flop>20% turn
-yeah, that is true but with that logic 72o vs AA wians 1 in 10 =)
 
Reven420

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You really won't know until you compare over a huge amount of hands. Keep records or purchase a poker tracking software and examine yourself over something like 50,000 hands. That is usually a big enough sample size to really see whats going on. Also you are playing micro limits. It's not poker like what people really learn to play. Because of the amount of fish playing so far from correct these stakes are in my opinion an entity separate from the rest of poker. I had the same problem. Trust me when I say this, google and read "Crushing the Microstakes" by BlackRain79. It's a little outdated so you will have to mentally update things such as bet sizing but if you do have the fundamentals and the knowledge then this will teach you specifically how to beat the micro stakes.... and pretty much no other stakes. These stakes require their own technique. Hope this helps you as much as it did me.
 
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antonis32123

antonis32123

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All these can happen , especially is not a bad beat in my opinion. The thing is how you played them preflop and if they saw the flop cheaply .All these in 3 days is too much , but you need to be carefull with your banroll management , from 60 to 17 is a big fall , maybe you should have changed level/stake while being on this downswing, to 2nl for some time . Either way , I wish you good luck for the games to come , when a downswing/many bad beats happen to you have a break so to avoid tilt . :)
 
gjwalk

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Bad beats are a big part of the game. It's how they effect your game that matters. If you're getting it in good and still losing the hand, at least you can take comfort in the fact that you played the hand correctly. Whether or not it's bad play is tough to determine, sometimes it helps to have a neutral party analyze your play. Posting hands here sometimes helps and I don't mean just the bad beats. Finding leaks in your game are not easy to find on your own.
 
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