help with odds calculation?

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stefanorb

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Hi guys, i was reviewing the odds part of Harrington's book, but i am having troubles i what i thought i understood about odds calculation. He teaches us that for calculate the hand odds is a formula like [(52-X)/X] : 1

Then, right after, talking about small stacks, say that we are about 7,5 : 1 underdog to hit a set on the flop, considering that we hold 33.

The formula says that we should be 25 : 1

Where do i mistake?
 
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rhombus

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Hi guys, i was reviewing the odds part of Harrington's book, but i am having troubles i what i thought i understood about odds calculation. He teaches us that for calculate the hand odds is a formula like [(52-X)/X] : 1

Then, right after, talking about small stacks, say that we are about 7,5 : 1 underdog to hit a set on the flop, considering that we hold 33.

The formula says that we should be 25 : 1

Where do i mistake?
7.5:1 is only the odds to hit your set, \and 25:1 is what he suggests as implied odds because even if you hit your set you might not win any more money.

The suggestion is that to call a bet you should be looking at 25/1 effective stacks

i.e. if you have 30000 and your opponet has 25000 the effective stack is 25000

if you have to call a raise preflop you should only call about 1K to get near to 25/1. If you have to call 2K you arent getting good enough odds
 
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stefanorb

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7.5:1 is only the odds to hit your set, \and 25:1 is what he suggests as implied odds because even if you hit your set you might not win any more money.

The suggestion is that to call a bet you should be looking at 25/1 effective stacks

i.e. if you have 30000 and your opponet has 25000 the effective stack is 25000

if you have to call a raise preflop you should only call about 1K to get near to 25/1. If you have to call 2K you arent getting good enough odds

hi rhombus, thank you for your answer! i made a mistake when typing, it was meant to be: talking about small stacks, he says that we are about 7,5 : 1 to hit a set on the flop, exactly as you said. So where this 7,5 : 1 comes from? The chances to hit a set on the flop shouldn't be 25 : 1?

Thank you!
 
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rhombus

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1 - (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48) is 11.75%

basically you work out odds of not hitting your set
1st card you have 2 cards in your hand 50 left so 48/50
2nd card you have 2 cards 1 has been dealt and 49 left so 47/49
3rd card you have 2 cards 2 have been dealt and 48 left so 46/48

100/11.75 is 1 in 8.5 ot 7.5/1

24/1 or 1 in 25 is the odds to hit on the 1st card dealt
 
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stefanorb

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1 - (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48) is 11.75%

basically you work out odds of not hitting your set
1st card you have 2 cards in your hand 50 left so 48/50
2nd card you have 2 cards 1 has been dealt and 49 left so 47/49
3rd card you have 2 cards 2 have been dealt and 48 left so 46/48

100/11.75 is 1 in 8.5 ot 7.5/1

24/1 or 1 in 25 is the odds to hit on the 1st card dealt

Everything clear! Thank you rhombus!
 
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stefanorb

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I have another question, still reviewing Harrington's book, and i thought maybe i could post here instead of opening a new thread.

It's about the stack to pot ratio, that here is presented as

SPR = small stack / pot after preflop action

How does this change if i have three different stacks? Example: Me = 120 - Opp1 = 80 - Opp2 = 25?

I presume i calculate it with the medium stack?

And if i have 4, still presuming i have the highest stack, i considerate the one just smaller than mine?


I am sorry if sometimes my questions are a little dumb :confused: i am a beginner, and i have some ideas but i just want to be sure.

Thank you cardschat!
 
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Hi guys, i was reviewing the odds part of Harrington's book, but i am having troubles i what i thought i understood about odds calculation. He teaches us that for calculate the hand odds is a formula like [(52-X)/X] : 1

Then, right after, talking about small stacks, say that we are about 7,5 : 1 underdog to hit a set on the flop, considering that we hold 33.

The formula says that we should be 25 : 1

Where do i mistake?

so think that the odds for hitting set is 2/(52-2)= 1/25 is that what you mean?
for holding 33?

the mistake comes from there are 3 cards on flop not on cards.
that odds calculation is based on one card yet to come.

easy way is
1- 48/50*47/49*46/48 = 11.76%
converted to pot odds =1/7.5
 
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stefanorb

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easy way is
1- 48/50*47/49*46/48 = 11.76%
converted to pot odds =1/7.5

100/11.75 is 1 in 8.5 ot 7.5/1

24/1 or 1 in 25 is the odds to hit on the 1st card dealt

guys how did you arrive to that number? from 11.75% of hitting, to 7.5 : 1 odds(so 7,5 losing cards for each winning one)? is there an easy mathematical relation? :coffee:
 
micromachine

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7.5 losing card to every winning one -> 8.5 cards in total
100 / 8.5 = 11.75%

Seriously I don't know why anyone bothers with odds when you can just use percentages for everything :)
 
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micromachine

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I mean I suppose it's useful to know how to work out % of hitting a set on the flop, but really you just need to remember that you will hit approximately every 1 in 8 times and that's close enough
 
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stefanorb

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7.5 losing card to every winning one -> 8.5 cards in total (100%)

100 / 8.5 = 11.75%

Seriously I don't know why anyone bothers with odds when you can just use percentages for everything :)

hi micro! i like the odds because for me (still just on the paper) is easy to compare hand odds and pot odds and decide if the hand is worth to play or not! I have no doubt percentage can be easier in the beginning, but i think if you can manage right and fastly the odds, it can become a powerful weapon.

Anyway, thanks for your explanation! i got a little more, so 8.5 is the total hands that we play considering that we win one, and this is why then we have 7,5 to 1?
What i want to try to do is the opposite calculation. I made that calculation, using 1 - (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48) and i got 11.75%.
Now how i pass from this to 8.5 played hands?

Thank you!
 
micromachine

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BTW you can do pot odds, hand odds with percentages too, it really is simpler
 
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stefanorb

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Perfect! Everything clear! So after i subtract one and i have the effective X : 1 odds, thank you for your explanation! And i will try to ee how works for me with percentages, seems that it needs a passage less in the calculation, so maybe once got accustomed it really is better.

BTW I am staying in England this year, such a beautiful country! Cheers!
 
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