The hard reality of luck

Now, this is a subject that is common to everybody.
The hard reality when you sit there with your quads only to realize the pot get's to the other guy who managed to get the 2 only cards that would save him from certain bust in the hand. Or the guy who called you with nothing but a backdoor flush draw to your made straight and actually gets the flush busting you.
Or you decide to push with AKs on sb and the bb calls with AA?

I've endured many of theese situations during my poker career, and I guess you have aswell.
However I find it fascinating in over a how long course you can keep loosing even tough the math states you are ahead?
I feel disturbed about the fact that yesterday I was playing the MM 002 event on stars, and I was running pretty well. However I bust 5 hands from the bubble with A8. I was on SB, decided to shove with an M of 3 and the BB called with K4 and the flop served me with an 8 and him with a 4, so I was ahead 70% pre and 80% post.
However the turn decided to go rouge on me and tossed up another 4. I didn't get another 8 sadly and I busted 5 hands from the bubble.
The hands before that was equal, except one when I lost half my stack in a flip to the same guy who now called me with K4.

And now to my first question: You can't be skilled alone to bink in a tourney, right?
There's just so many factors that math wont cover that will get you even if you are doing everything by the book.

And my second: You will get sucked out more then you will suck out others right? Since you wont be putting yourself in them bad situations where you have to rely on a single card.

I don't know if theese questions go here but I kind of need some enlightenment to remain focused.

(currently playing MM event 10, 693/9949 with an M of 20, wish me luck)

Cheers

Just an update on the 10th event.
I lost a big deal of my stack to this donk who's stat's is
54/27/AFQ25 to a higher set (that he caught on the river) and this hand came shortly after when I was shortstacked....


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 1 Tournament, 3,000/6,000 Blinds 600 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

MP1 (t296,624)
MP2 (t252,536)
MP3 (t77,380)
Hero (CO) (t49,948)
Button (t26,919)
SB (t242,388)
BB (t41,800)
UTG (t173,865)
UTG+1 (t74,000)

Hero's M: 3.47

Preflop: Hero is CO with A , A
2 folds, MP1 raises to t12,000, 1 fold, MP3 calls t12,000, Hero raises to t49,348 (All-In), 3 folds, MP1 calls t37,348, 1 fold

Flop: (t125,096) 3 , 6 , J (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t125,096) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t125,096) K (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t125,096

Results below:

So this is what I am talking about. I went out in 4397th place Thanks to a moron who is calling, raising far and wide, and should pay you off. Instead the Mofo have to be lucky whereas I'm never and therefore bust me out of the tourney.
So PLEASE enlighten me. Is it even possible to bink in a tourney when your big hands get cracked in situations where it does matter since it costs you a huge portion of your stack-or all of it?
The hands usually only get payed of when a shortstack donk shoves into you.
Should I simply stop playing big hands and just fish with speculative hands since that seems to work best >_<

You know...I feel your pain. Today I was playing some SNG's and had some sick beats as well. You should be "happy" that your AA was cracked by KJ...my AA got owned by T4o! Anyway, some time ago, I was so frustrated that I even asked (maybe not too polite, but I was tilting), one of those donks how they do that?! How they just shove all-in with that crap and hit flushes, straights etc... The answer shocked me. It turned out that...he didnt even know what I was talking about! He wasnt there for the game, to get better or to earn money. He was there just to "play", see some cards, enjoy his free time etc... And I finally got it. You cant get mad at them for what they are doing because...they dont even know what they are doing They are not trying to play back at you, suckout on you etc. They dont know the game, they dont want to know it, and they dont need to know it -> its their money, their right. Its an important lesson to realize that they dont think like you do.

So the conclusion is that, at those low limit games you will find players like that. So you either have to deal with it and accept it or... deposit more $ and move up stakes (where you will probably beg for that kind of player to be at your table).

BoddJonar said:

And now to my first question: You can't be skilled alone to bink in a tourney, right?
There's just so many factors that math wont cover that will get you even if you are doing everything by the book.

And my second: You will get sucked out more then you will suck out others right? Since you wont be putting yourself in them bad situations where you have to rely on a single card.

Click to expand...

Yes, you have to get lucky to win any tournament. But luck isn't just about sucking out. For instance, you get it all in with AA vs KK. Is it skill or luck that the hands weren't reversed? Or say someone does suck out on you. Is it luck or skill that he only had 1/4 of your stack instead of having you covered?

And yes, you should get sucked out on more than you suck out. If the latter is happening, you're getting it in bad too often. That said, the better you are at chip accumulation, the more you can afford to play small and mid-sized pots where your EV is somewhat negative. When you win, great. When you lose, you lose chips you can replace better than most.

Arjonius said:

Yes, you have to get lucky to win any tournament....

[Y]ou should get sucked out on more than you suck out. If the latter is happening, you're getting it in bad too often. That said, the better you are at chip accumulation, the more you can afford to play small and mid-sized pots where your EV is somewhat negative. When you win, great. When you lose, you lose chips you can replace better than most.

Click to expand...

Arjonius, this is why you're great. Its a very nice fundamental thing in poker, but its easy to look past. If you are sucking out on other people a lot, you need to take a look at your game. If other people are constantly sucking out on you - take it as a moment of pride that you are making better decisions than your opponents are.

BoddJonar said:

Since you wont be putting yourself in them bad situations where you have to rely on a single card.

Click to expand...

This is impossible even if you are only paying 5% of your hands. There are all kinds of situations where it's correct to get your money in when you can be beat. You're playing the odds after all. Especially in tournaments.

If you want to stay sane and play poker, then you have to roll with the punches. There will be countless of them. It's a part of the game. Yes, bad players suck out more often because they are in those situations more often. But you have to remember that they don't suck out more frequently. You do get lucky too.

I entered your example of A8 versus K4 into an equity calculator (you can find many of these floating around on the web) and it shows that you only have a 63 to 36 percent edge, not the 70% that you think. 1.75 to one versus 2.33 to one if that doesn't sound like a big difference.

The odds on the flop and turn don't count for squat. It just skews the result and makes you feel more unlucky than you actually were. So unless you enjoy feeling bad, consider the odds only when the money went in.

Well, you know what a pro calls "luck"? Variance

As long as you continue making good decisions, and having the foresight to evaluate your play afterwards, I think that you should be able to outlast any swings in your roll.

Good luck.

Arjonius said:

Yes, you have to get lucky to win any tournament. But luck isn't just about sucking out. For instance, you get it all in with AA vs KK. Is it skill or luck that the hands weren't reversed? Or say someone does suck out on you. Is it luck or skill that he only had 1/4 of your stack instead of having you covered?

And yes, you should get sucked out on more than you suck out. If the latter is happening, you're getting it in bad too often. That said, the better you are at chip accumulation, the more you can afford to play small and mid-sized pots where your EV is somewhat negative. When you win, great. When you lose, you lose chips you can replace better than most.

Click to expand...

Your words are wise, but those are situations where I can accept a defeat. If I get kings when someone else get Aces I already count myself out of that pot (if it doesn't happen to often, then it gets frustrating).

It can be both, in this example he got lucky and sucked out on me, and afterwards did it again for the rest of my chips.
I'm just frustrated that I'd never seen to get anywhere in tourneys even tough I get the money in good most of the time. Not always, but when I do play my A-game, I usually get it right.
I have to learn about accumulating chips better then, so I can survive more of them situations I described above.
I do tend to get a bit chicken when playing for bigger money, I dont really feel that comfortable playing flips early in a tourney ^^

dasher said:

This is impossible even if you are only paying 5% of your hands. There are all kinds of situations where it's correct to get your money in when you can be beat. You're playing the odds after all. Especially in tournaments.

If you want to stay sane and play poker, then you have to roll with the punches. There will be countless of them. It's a part of the game. Yes, bad players suck out more often because they are in those situations more often. But you have to remember that they don't suck out more frequently. You do get lucky too.

I entered your example of A8 versus K4 into an equity calculator (you can find many of these floating around on the web) and it shows that you only have a 63 to 36 percent edge, not the 70% that you think. 1.75 to one versus 2.33 to one if that doesn't sound like a big difference.

The odds on the flop and turn don't count for squat. It just skews the result and makes you feel more unlucky than you actually were. So unless you enjoy feeling bad, consider the odds only when the money went in.

Click to expand...

Ah, sorry I calculate things in my head and it doesn't always get exactly right, so ty for the correction there.
No I don't enjoy feeling bad lol. Yes, I admit I get lucky from time to time too, but I experience suckouts more then I give, and that's a positive thing. Just not in tourneys maybe.

EriqPhoenix said:

Well, you know what a pro calls "luck"? Variance

As long as you continue making good decisions, and having the foresight to evaluate your play afterwards, I think that you should be able to outlast any swings in your roll.

Good luck.

Click to expand...

I know... Just frustrated not being able to bink in a big money tourney you know... Thank you.


Thank you all for the responses!

Cheers

Ok, lets look at your question from a different perspective (just for the fun of it).

What does dwelling on the fact that your running bad really do for your game in the long run?

What does it do to your mind over all?

When you just started a tourney (after running horrible for x number of games even 100s+), are you really focusing on that game that you just started or are you thinking more down the lines (I'm already doomed)?

Negative thoughts=Negative thoughts (nothing positive ever comes from this), so why even do it to yourself?

Yes it sucks when you're running really deep, playing well and just get sucked out on for everything after putting in 6+hours of work/game time (Just happened to me right now as I write this).

Best advice I can possibly give to you is to re-examine the hand, and see if at all you could've taken a less variance route, or if your play was +EV.

Yes a person would need to win acouple of flips and yes you'd need to get lucky at times (and more so in the case of MTT's), but if you do everything correctly, than really forget luck, forget her ass and kick her to the curve if she swings your way (great, if not than so be it).

No need to kick yourself or be upset over it man