re: Poker & The hard reality of luck
Originally Posted by Arjonius
Yes, you have to get lucky to win any tournament. But luck isn't just about sucking out. For instance, you get it all in with AA vs KK. Is it skill or luck that the hands weren't reversed? Or say someone does suck out on you. Is it luck or skill that he only had 1/4 of your stack instead of having you covered?
And yes, you should get sucked out on more than you suck out. If the latter is happening, you're getting it in bad too often. That said, the better you are at chip accumulation, the more you can afford to play small and mid-sized pots where your EV is somewhat negative. When you win, great. When you lose, you lose chips you can replace better than most.
Your words are wise, but those are situations where I can accept a defeat. If I get kings when someone else get Aces I already count myself out of that pot (if it doesn't happen to often, then it gets frustrating).
It can be both, in this example he got lucky and sucked out on me, and afterwards did it again for the rest of my chips.
I'm just frustrated that I'd never seen to get anywhere in tourneys even tough I get the money in good most of the time. Not always, but when I do play my A-game, I usually get it right.
I have to learn about accumulating chips better then, so I can survive more of them situations I described above.
I do tend to get a bit chicken when playing for bigger money, I dont really feel that comfortable playing flips early in a tourney ^^
Originally Posted by dasher
This is impossible even if you are only paying 5% of your hands. There are all kinds of situations where it's correct to get your money in when you can be beat. You're playing the odds after all. Especially in tournaments.
If you want to stay sane and play poker, then you have to roll with the punches. There will be countless of them. It's a part of the game. Yes, bad players suck out more often because they are in those situations more often. But you have to remember that they don't suck out more frequently. You do get lucky too.
I entered your example of A8 versus K4 into an equity calculator (you can find many of these floating around on the web) and it shows that you only have a 63 to 36 percent edge, not the 70% that you think. 1.75 to one versus 2.33 to one if that doesn't sound like a big difference.
The odds on the flop and turn don't count for squat. It just skews the result and makes you feel more unlucky than you actually were. So unless you enjoy feeling bad, consider the odds only when the money went in.
Ah, sorry I calculate things in my head and it doesn't always get exactly right, so ty for the correction there.
No I don't enjoy feeling bad lol. Yes, I admit I get lucky from time to time too, but I experience suckouts more then I give, and that's a positive thing. Just not in tourneys maybe.
Originally Posted by EriqPhoenix
Well, you know what a pro calls "luck"? Variance
As long as you continue making good decisions, and having the foresight to evaluate your play afterwards, I think that you should be able to outlast any swings in your roll.
I know... Just frustrated not being able to bink in a big money tourney you know... Thank you.
Thank you all for the responses!