Hand-reading help

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Beasty2k

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Hello again all, I am improving my game and now nearly doubled my BR on 10NL cash games ($100 => 200 in 3 weeks). I now feel I know a bit about position, 3B’s, CB’s and am quite good at evaluating my own hands postflop. I virtually never bluff anymore like I used to, play TAG and normally have quite a good feel for the different player types. I have no problems folding a losing hand, despite having put 20bb in the pot postflop. So no real tilts so far.

My next step, one I think I will benefit the most from, is hand-reading. I have read one book and probably 20 articles / strategy websites on the topic, and still have trouble understanding and using it. In every forum people will post hand stats and after one reraise by the button they say “I had him down as 99+” – how the HELL is that even possible? Because it can be anything. Also, users in forums tend to disagree when discussing hand reading (“really? I thought mid-suited connectors”). Obviously there is no universal formula – the fact every oneimplements the hand-reading differently means people win / lose.

But let me give you an example hand… A fairly loose player (think standard 10NL game) MP bets 3xbb preflop, I raise on the button with QQ, he calls. Flop is K27. Villain checks, I bet 2/3 pot or whatever. He raises 3x pot. How on earth can I have an idea what he has?

Instinctively, my thoughts would be as follows. A loose player raises flop and calls my raise –pretty standard, could have anything from 22+ to 9To. (not that this is how I would play 9To myself, but this is the type of players I am up against all the time). I miss the flop, but have a decent hand. Since he outbets me, I am 100% convinced he has a Kx or KK. So I fold.

Or rather, he PROBABLY NOT has a Kx or KK, but there is definitely a chance so it is not worth going along. I have a pessimistic view, generally, so will fold to anything as soon as there is a chance he can beat me (not entirely true, but annoying). BUT… Even before my initial bet and I see a K on the board I convince myself he has one. A better example I suppose is if he bets preflop and I call with QQ, and the flop reads as above. If he CBets, I will tell myself “he must have a K” and fold. Here, it would be really helpful with thought on what I should do.

Is it just that I should think “there is one K on the board, and so the probability of him holding one of the other three is very low.

I am sure there are much more ways to tackle this dilemma (I just tend to take the highest card on the board and think his hand matches this one, regardless of anything else). You have any ideas on how I can change my thinking about this? Any links to articles, easy to understand strategies would be much welcomed. And especially, any-hand reading exercises that I can do over and over, with a “correct” answer to tell me what was wrong and how I should think instead.

Feel free to use own examples than mine. Thanks a million for your help.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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Hand reading is an exercise in fuzzy logic. You use player stats, your observations and the opponent's actions to narrow down his range.

For example, you see someone who enters 50% of all pots and who limps 4/5 of those times. Ignoring 3bets, positional factors and free looks in the BB for the sake of simplicity, this means he open-raises pre-flop 10% of the time, limps 40% and folds 50%. So when he open-raises, we can immediately narrow down his hand to roughly the best 10% of all hands he could have been dealt. That's more or less 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo. We then adjust this if we've seen anything that leads us to do so - maybe we've seen that he limps 88-TT and open-raises some smaller A hands.

On the flop, if we've observed, for example, that he's a player who seldom continues with less than top pair, we can further narrow his range from his action; if he bets or calls, he has at least TP.

While this is a rather simplified example, I hope it will help you to see something as to what hand reading entails.
 
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Beasty2k

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Hand reading is an exercise in fuzzy logic. You use player stats, your observations and the opponent's actions to narrow down his range.

For example, you see someone who enters 50% of all pots and who limps 4/5 of those times. Ignoring 3bets, positional factors and free looks in the BB for the sake of simplicity, this means he open-raises pre-flop 10% of the time, limps 40% and folds 50%. So when he open-raises, we can immediately narrow down his hand to roughly the best 10% of all hands he could have been dealt. That's more or less 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo. We then adjust this if we've seen anything that leads us to do so - maybe we've seen that he limps 88-TT and open-raises some smaller A hands.

On the flop, if we've observed, for example, that he's a player who seldom continues with less than top pair, we can further narrow his range from his action; if he bets or calls, he has at least TP.

While this is a rather simplified example, I hope it will help you to see something as to what hand reading entails.

That's excellent, thanks for that simplified example. I really understand the logic of the 10% conclusion.

I guess another question is that I tend to think everyone (well, nearly), will always have one of those hands. Especially when we get to the flop, I will be very "pessimistic" and always think they have the top 10%, or better, hands - like the ones you gave as an example. Any ideas how to think differently so I can cut my pessimistic nature on what the villain holds?
 
MediaBLITZ

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That's excellent, thanks for that simplified example. I really understand the logic of the 10% conclusion.

I guess another question is that I tend to think everyone (well, nearly), will always have one of those hands. Especially when we get to the flop, I will be very "pessimistic" and always think they have the top 10%, or better, hands - like the ones you gave as an example. Any ideas how to think differently so I can cut my pessimistic nature on what the villain holds?

yes, understand that the math says a player will only hit the flop (a pair or better) roughly 1/3 of the time - meaning 2/3 of the time they miss.

It is not entirely a bad thing to give a player credit for what he is representing - especially in your early experience with them. But you must start cataloging their actions and hands and realize what the percentages are for them to seemingly have a hand that beats you. If they are very active and involved then that is your first clue that they might be up to some shenanigans and you can start to question their credibility. While they could go on a heater and "have it" 4 out of the next 10 hands, it is FAR less likely to do that 40 out of 100 times.
On the other hand, if they are pretty inactive and uninvolved and suddenly spring to life and want to bet - well they just might be credible.

So all I have done is over simplified Arj's simple explanation.

So you just have to keep an eye out and make notes - mental or otherwise and you start developing your read and figure out what kind of credit you are going to give to different players at your table.
 
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Caesura

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Hand reading is an exercise in fuzzy logic. You use player stats, your observations and the opponent's actions to narrow down his range.

For example, you see someone who enters 50% of all pots and who limps 4/5 of those times. Ignoring 3bets, positional factors and free looks in the BB for the sake of simplicity, this means he open-raises pre-flop 10% of the time, limps 40% and folds 50%. So when he open-raises, we can immediately narrow down his hand to roughly the best 10% of all hands he could have been dealt. That's more or less 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo. We then adjust this if we've seen anything that leads us to do so - maybe we've seen that he limps 88-TT and open-raises some smaller A hands.

On the flop, if we've observed, for example, that he's a player who seldom continues with less than top pair, we can further narrow his range from his action; if he bets or calls, he has at least TP.

While this is a rather simplified example, I hope it will help you to see something as to what hand reading entails.

So, forgive me for sounding dense, is it that simple to judge? A players % of open bets correlates closely to their range %? A player that only opens 5% of hands is only playing the top 5% of range (give or take)?
 
danprince10

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After/while reading poker books the parts about hand reading were always so vague they never quite made sense to me and I always thought that would be something I would just never get unless some book had a magic explanation of it. However it's definitely something you will be able to learn and do. No book can teach it to you it's purely experience. It's from playing hands over and over again to see all these spots that look alike and the hands that people almost always show up with in those spots. Like when someone shoves into a flop that has 2 of a suit like Kc 3c 6s. They are almost always going to have the either the flush draw with an over/some combo draw. Or a king with a decent kicker. Just keep playing and stay engaged and some day you'll know exactly what I mean lol.
 
MediaBLITZ

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So, forgive me for sounding dense, is it that simple to judge? A players % of open bets correlates closely to their range %? A player that only opens 5% of hands is only playing the top 5% of range (give or take)?

Pretty much but I would add that the lower/tighter the number the more true this can be.

You start getting up around say 20+% then their range % is very likely higher than that number.

JMHO
 
Arjonius

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So, forgive me for sounding dense, is it that simple to judge? A players % of open bets correlates closely to their range %? A player that only opens 5% of hands is only playing the top 5% of range (give or take)?
It's a simplified example, so no, it's not this simple. For example, a player who open-raises 10% overall probably doesn't do so from all seats. It might be something like 4% from EP, 10% from MP and 16% from LP. So you should count on him to have a substantially narrower range when he opens from UTG than from the BTN.
 
MediaBLITZ

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It's a simplified example, so no, it's not this simple. For example, a player who open-raises 10% overall probably doesn't do so from all seats. It might be something like 4% from EP, 10% from MP and 16% from LP. So you should count on him to have a substantially narrower range when he opens from UTG than from the BTN.

EXCELLENT POINT!!!!
 
dj11

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So, forgive me for sounding dense, is it that simple to judge? A players % of open bets correlates closely to their range %? A player that only opens 5% of hands is only playing the top 5% of range (give or take)?

Almost that simple, until you have to add in positional factors, but it is a very useful start to evaluating the situation. If you start and stop with that info, bad things will happen to you, but for a start its the right place.

The stats you have on your villains are generally a gross approximation (based on facts) that cover all positions.

So, for another simplified example, player V(illain) has a VPIP of 20. That might be a solid number for middle position. UTG he might be 10, button he could be 40, with a non straight line describing how he plays in each position.

Again, simplified and using the above nonstraight line, V in the CO should probably be in the 30-35 VPIP range. Usable info from a hand chart will give you the bottom end of his range.

Other variables in his stats will be how many hands over what period of time you have on V. If you have tons of hands on a player, that might go back a year or more, I would tend to want to restrict how many of those hands you are using to some number of more recent hands. I do this often in Tourneys where I see the same folks over and over and have for a long time. Year old stats means V has had a chance to get Phil Ivy as a coach, and he graduated with honors.

Size of table will be very important. 9 seats vs 6 seats. If you come to a 9 seat table with a villain you have 6 seat stats on, trouble will ensue..
 
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Caesura

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Good starting point though. I wouldn't even have thought of comparing those stats until reading this thread.
 
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