Hand Odds vs. Pot Odds

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Zer0-0uts

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I posted thread somewhat similar to this one when I first joined. Although this post is the same subject matter, the questions in this one delve deeper into hand odds and pot odds. For this post I want to outline how I understand things to be, and then have someone look it over and tell me yea or nay. Ok let's get into it.

Now the way I understand things to work is like this. Lets say for this example that there is a total of $15 in the pot. The villain leads out and bets $10 on the flop making the pot $25. I believe that I am behind in the hand, but I am open ended for a total of 8 outs. I take the 8 outs and multiple them by 4. This gets me to 32. Then I add one to get 33. This means if I see this hand to the end I have a 33% chance of making the straight. 100/33=3.030303, so I am basically looking at 3 to 1 odds against making the hand.

Now I look at the pot odds I am being offered. It will cost me $10 to win $25. So $25/$10=2.5. Now I put that together. The odds are 3 to 1 against making the hand and I am only being offered 2.5 to 1 on my money. The odds against me making the hand are greater than the odds I am being offered for my $10 call. I should fold.

Now let's look at the same situation only this time there is the $15 in the pot. The villain puts in a $10 bet. There is one caller before it gets to me. That brings the pot total to $35. It cost me $10 to call. Now the pot is offering me 3.5 to 1 on my call. Again the odds are 3 to 1 against me making my straight, but this time the pot is offering me 3.5 to 1 on my money. I should call.

Does all this sound right? What if anything do I have wrong here with the way I am looking at things? Thanks in advanced.
 
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I believe that is wrong
15 in the pot
you have 8 outs, winning chance 33%
so some one bet 10 into the pot, as final action, you are offering 10 to call 10+15= 25.

you need to call.

simply count

in 10 to call 25 situation.

you call 3 times " on average"

you spend 30, you win 1 time, total win is 10+25= 35 as your total win, and final amount in your account

your total spend 30
______________________
so 3 times average total, your account starting from 30 finished with 35.
your net win in the long run is 35-30=5

you need to call. not fold.
 
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Lorpugo

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2 things wrong here .... if you need to call 10 bucks into 30 pot you got 1/3 but you actually need 25 percent not 33 to make the call because three times you lose 10 bucks and the fourth time you hit and win 30 bucks so your breakeven call when pot odds are 1/3 are 1/3+1 or 1/4 or 25 percent. and the second important thing is that this is until the river... if you have 1/3 on flop and miss and opponent bets again 1/3 .... you dont have the odds. you have half of it for the turn or 16 percent so it is not that easy.... basically if you have one dollar on the flop and the pot is 30 cents and have 1/3 odds go all in
 
Lorpugo

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also there are implied odds if you think your opponent cant fold aa and you are some deep stack you can call against odds because when you hit you will gain big...
 
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I usually do it how I feel. I find pot odds useless since it doesn't help right card to come. Also player can bet higher intentionally so you couldn't call (only because of pot odds).
Also, I noticed many good players, 40-60%, don't count pot odds. And, probably not very good players, are ready to make weird calls (only because of pot odds).
 
Lorpugo

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cheeer you are wrong if you think top players dont count their outs and dont do pot odds calculations
 
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I watched their interviews, heard what they say, saw how they act. I talked not about all good players, re-read.
 
Lorpugo

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the videos are very sellective, they show weird hands but the pros are forced to play like that because they are very good at pot odds and dont make mistakes. if they raise ak utg everybody will put him on such a hand and he cant make money thats why sometimes they play 45suited utg... this is wrong at the stakes we are in
 
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I talked not about weird hands, but about weird calls. To play random hands is fine to make your game more complicated.
For example, I watched live stream (sellective videos?) where A2 tried to bluff KK on pre-flop by raising, re-raising. When KK went all in, one commentator (who's now a player) said that A2 could call, because he has pot odds.
Again. I didn't tell they don't use it. I said some use it, some don't. means: some count exact amount, some imagine it approximately. How they feel.
 
Lorpugo

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well a2 vs kk has 30 percent equity before flop so if you have 300$ and the pot is 1000$ if you fold you make mathematical mistake
 
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I believe that is wrong
15 in the pot
you have 8 outs, winning chance 33%
so some one bet 10 into the pot, as final action, you are offering 10 to call 10+15= 25.

you need to call.

simply count

in 10 to call 25 situation.

you call 3 times " on average"

you spend 30, you win 1 time, total win is 10+25= 35 as your total win, and final amount in your account

your total spend 30
______________________
so 3 times average total, your account starting from 30 finished with 35.
your net win in the long run is 35-30=5

you need to call. not fold.

So in the first example that I gave:
there is a total of $15 in the pot. The villain leads out and bets $10 on the flop making the pot $25. I am open ended for a total of 8 outs. I take the 8 outs and multiple them by 4. This gets me to 32. Then I add one to get 33. This means if I see this hand to the end I have a 33% chance of making the straight. 100/33=3.030303, so I am basically looking at 3 to 1 odds against making the hand.

It will cost me $10 to win $25(The pot contained $15 after the flop. The Villain wagered an additional $10 making the pot a total of $25 when it gets to me. I need to call $10 to win a $25 pot.). So $25/$10=2.5. Now I put that together. The odds are 3 to 1 against making the hand and I am only being offered 2.5 to 1 on my money. The odds against me making the hand are greater than the odds I am being offered for my $10 call. I should fold.
I am right? I should fold?

And then in the second example I used:
...there is the $15 in the pot. The villain puts in a $10 bet. There is one caller before it gets to me. That brings the pot total to $35 ($15 pot + $10 bet + $10 call=$35). It cost me $10 to call.(35/10=3.5) Now the pot is offering me 3.5 to 1 on my call. ...the odds are 3 to 1 against me making my straight. (So every three times I play this hand out I will win one of those times), ...this time the pot is offering me 3.5 to 1 on my money(hand one loose $10, hand two loose $10, hand three win $35 net profit of $15). I should call.
I was right? I should call? (Maybe even raise, but that is a new thread all together. lol)

Thanks to everybody for all the replies.;)
 
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So in the first example that I gave:

I am right? I should fold?

And then in the second example I used:

I was right? I should call? (Maybe even raise, but that is a new thread all together. lol)

Thanks to everybody for all the replies.;)


my Idea is you need to call both examples
meaning both example are worth a call.
 
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Remember thats with 2 cards to come and there could be a bet also on turn, then there is implied odds and reverse implied odds

If you expect to win a lot more money from your opponent after you make your draw, you have good implied odds.

If you anticipate that you will not be able to get any more money out of your opponent on future rounds, then you have little or no implied odds

All this plus pot odds go hand in hand and is part of being a winning player

Even though you might have 3.5 to 1 with 8 outs your only roughly going to hit the cards 16% of the time on the turn
 
MoeJurphy

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I posted thread somewhat similar to this one when I first joined. Although this post is the same subject matter, the questions in this one delve deeper into hand odds and pot odds. For this post I want to outline how I understand things to be, and then have someone look it over and tell me yea or nay. Ok let's get into it.

Now the way I understand things to work is like this. Lets say for this example that there is a total of $15 in the pot. The villain leads out and bets $10 on the flop making the pot $25. I believe that I am behind in the hand, but I am open ended for a total of 8 outs. I take the 8 outs and multiple them by 4. This gets me to 32. Then I add one to get 33. This means if I see this hand to the end I have a 33% chance of making the straight. 100/33=3.030303, so I am basically looking at 3 to 1 odds against making the hand.

Now I look at the pot odds I am being offered. It will cost me $10 to win $25. So $25/$10=2.5. Now I put that together. The odds are 3 to 1 against making the hand and I am only being offered 2.5 to 1 on my money. The odds against me making the hand are greater than the odds I am being offered for my $10 call. I should fold.

Now let's look at the same situation only this time there is the $15 in the pot. The villain puts in a $10 bet. There is one caller before it gets to me. That brings the pot total to $35. It cost me $10 to call. Now the pot is offering me 3.5 to 1 on my call. Again the odds are 3 to 1 against me making my straight, but this time the pot is offering me 3.5 to 1 on my money. I should call.

Does all this sound right? What if anything do I have wrong here with the way I am looking at things? Thanks in advanced.

To OP

Pot Odds
When calculating pot odds you need to count everything you will win compared to the bet size for example; pot + villains bet + heroes call= pot odds.

For example;
pot is 15 + players bet of 10 + your call of 10 = 35/ original bet 10 =3.5-1

Equity:
number of outs (8)*4=32
32/68=2.1

So PO 3.5-1 and EQ 2.1-1 we should call.

If you have over 8 outs on the flop you should work your equity like so;
(number of outs * 4) - (number of outs - 8) = Equity

Someone correct me if I am wrong but to me that's the math behind it?

Side note/ This isn't taking into consideration of anti outs and implied odds.
 
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Equity Outs?

To OP

Pot Odds
When calculating pot odds you need to count everything you will win compared to the bet size for example; pot + villains bet + heroes call= pot odds.

For example;
pot is 15 + players bet of 10 + your call of 10 = 35/ original bet 10 =3.5-1

Equity:
number of outs (8)*4=32
32/68=2.1

So PO 3.5-1 and EQ 2.1-1 we should call.

If you have over 8 outs on the flop you should work your equity like so;
(number of outs * 4) - (number of outs - 8) = Equity

Someone correct me if I am wrong but to me that's the math behind it?

Side note/ This isn't taking into consideration of anti outs and implied odds.
I never remember to include my call in the pot odds. :\ I do not know why I can not remember to include my call when calculating. That significantly changes the equation.

Now what are the equity odds as you are describing them here? I am not familiar with how you are getting to your 2.1 to 1. The way I've always know it is to take your number of outs (8) and multiple that by 4 and then add one to the total to see the percentage chance you have to make your hand. Then divide 100 by your percentage to figure out your odds against making your hand. In the case of my example I am working with a hand that is 3 to 1 against making the hand. Am I right thus far?

Now here comes a little more confusion on my part. It has to do with the ratio 3 to 1. Does 3 to 1 against making the hand mean that if I play the hand 3 times I will win 1 time, or is it if I play 4 time I will loose 3 times and win once?

I would love for someone to help me with this.

Thanks again to everyone for your replies.
 
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I posted thread somewhat similar to this one when I first joined. Although this post is the same subject matter, the questions in this one delve deeper into hand odds and pot odds. For this post I want to outline how I understand things to be, and then have someone look it over and tell me yea or nay. Ok let's get into it.

Now the way I understand things to work is like this. Lets say for this example that there is a total of $15 in the pot. The villain leads out and bets $10 on the flop making the pot $25. I believe that I am behind in the hand, but I am open ended for a total of 8 outs. I take the 8 outs and multiple them by 4.
...Assuming the villain has more chips behind, you would actually multiply by 2 calculating the odds for seeing the turn. You can to calculate the odds of hitting your out for both the flop-to-turn and turn-to-river in comparison to the pot odds seperately.

If the villain had no money behind, or the $10 bet put them all-in, then you would multiply by 4 because you're guaranteed to see both the turn and river.


This gets me to 32. Then I add one to get 33. This means if I see this hand to the end I have a 33% chance of making the straight. 100/33=3.030303, so I am basically looking at 3 to 1 odds against making the hand.
...Well, since you're only x2 your outs, it's actually ~17%.

I prefer the ratio method, so 39/8 = ~4.9:1 odds of hitting.


Now I look at the pot odds I am being offered. It will cost me $10 to win $25. So $25/$10=2.5. Now I put that together. The odds are 3 to 1 against making the hand and I am only being offered 2.5 to 1 on my money. The odds against me making the hand are greater than the odds I am being offered for my $10 call. I should fold.
...The odds of making your hand on the turn is 4.9:1 while only getting 2.5:1 pot odds.

Interestingly enough, if the odds of you hitting was actually 33% or 2.03:1 to hit, then getting 2.5:1 pot odds would actually be a call.


Now let's look at the same situation only this time there is the $15 in the pot. The villain puts in a $10 bet. There is one caller before it gets to me. That brings the pot total to $35. It cost me $10 to call. Now the pot is offering me 3.5 to 1 on my call. Again the odds are 3 to 1 against me making my straight, but this time the pot is offering me 3.5 to 1 on my money. I should call.
...Yes, if your correct odds was 2.03:1. But since it isn't and is actually 4.9:1 to hit, it's still a fold.

Does all this sound right? What if anything do I have wrong here with the way I am looking at things? Thanks in advanced.
...You just made a common error that a lot of players do when using the rule of 2 and 4. Basic guide:

1. If villain has money behind and a future bet is possible, use the rule of 2.
This way, you avoid making incorrect calls in false +EV situations that are actually -EV. This is used for both flop-to-turn because villain still has an option of betting on the turn, and on the river because it's the last card.

2. Only use the rule of 2 if there is no future betting and you're guaranteed to see the turn and river. If the villain is all-in and can't bet, then you can calculate the odds of hitting on the turn or river to make your hand.

Using your example above, if villain went all-in for $10 on the flop and you had to call $10 to win $25, it's a profitable call with a 33% chance of hitting.

Plug that into an EV formula and we get:

EV = [$25 x .33] - [$25 x .67]
EV = [$8.25] - [$6.7]
EV = $1.55

Also, your converting to ratio is a bit off. For 33%, we get 33/100 = 3.03, to make that into a ratio, it's 3.03 - 1 = 2.03:1
above.
 
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To OP

Pot Odds
When calculating pot odds you need to count everything you will win compared to the bet size for example; pot + villains bet + heroes call= pot odds.

For example;
pot is 15 + players bet of 10 + your call of 10 = 35/ original bet 10 =3.5-1
...if you are using the ratio method, you do not include your call in the pot odds.

So, if there is $25 and you need to call $10 to win it, it's 2.5:1 to call.

However, if you're using the percentage method, then you do include your call. So, $25 + $10/$10 = $35/$10 = ~29%


Equity:
number of outs (8)*4=32
32/68=2.1

So PO 3.5-1 and EQ 2.1-1 we should call.
...it would actually be 2.5:1 to call using the ratio method. Still a call, though.

If you have over 8 outs on the flop you should work your equity like so;
(number of outs * 4) - (number of outs - 8) = Equity

Someone correct me if I am wrong but to me that's the math behind it?
...Your math is fine, just unnecessary. The percentage chance you have of hitting is your equity. So, if a situation where you have 8 outs and can use the rule of 4 or [8 x 4], you have 32% chance to win the pot. Or 32% equity.

Your equity is simply how much of the pot is yours. For example, if the pot is $100 and your equity is 32%, then with the current pot, $32 is yours.

Now, whether or not you should call a bet depends on your expected value and you need to know your equity in order to figure that out.

Using the same example, lets say the pot is $100 after villain bet and you have to call $40. Since we know our equity to win is 32%, that means we have a 68% chance to lose and we're calling $40 to win $100, our EV formula is:

EV = [win x .32] - [lose x .68]
EV = [$100 x .32] - [$40 x .68]
EV = [$32] - [$27.2]
EV = $4.8

Calling is profitable.

However, all that above isn't totally necessary since we can just compare our pot odds to hand odds. With an equity 32%, we have a ~2.1:1 chance of hitting. Our pot odds is 2.5:1 and since out pot odds > hand odds, the call is profitable.


Side note/ This isn't taking into consideration of anti outs and implied odds.
above.
 
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I never remember to include my call in the pot odds. :\ I do not know why I can not remember to include my call when calculating. That significantly changes the equation.
...only include your call in the pot calculation if you're using the percentage method. Don't if you're using the ratio method.

Now what are the equity odds as you are describing them here? I am not familiar with how you are getting to your 2.1 to 1. The way I've always know it is to take your number of outs (8) and multiple that by 4 and then add one to the total to see the percentage chance you have to make your hand. Then divide 100 by your percentage to figure out your odds against making your hand. In the case of my example I am working with a hand that is 3 to 1 against making the hand. Am I right thus far?
...Close. Remember, when converting a percentage to ratio, you have to subtract 1.

So, with 33/100 = 3.03. To convert that to a ratio, it's 3.03 - 1 = 2.03:1.

As far as equity goes, it's just what your chance of winning the pot is. If it's 33% chance of winning, you have 33% equity. I went further into this in my reply above.


Now here comes a little more confusion on my part. It has to do with the ratio 3 to 1. Does 3 to 1 against making the hand mean that if I play the hand 3 times I will win 1 time, or is it if I play 4 time I will loose 3 times and win once?
...If you're still converting the 33%, your ratio is 2.03:1.

However, as an example of 3:1, the bolded part is correct.


I would love for someone to help me with this.

Thanks again to everyone for your replies.
above.
 
MoeJurphy

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I never remember to include my call in the pot odds. :\ I do not know why I can not remember to include my call when calculating. That significantly changes the equation.

Now what are the equity odds as you are describing them here? I am not familiar with how you are getting to your 2.1 to 1. The way I've always know it is to take your number of outs (8) and multiple that by 4 and then add one to the total to see the percentage chance you have to make your hand. Then divide 100 by your percentage to figure out your odds against making your hand. In the case of my example I am working with a hand that is 3 to 1 against making the hand. Am I right thus far?

Now here comes a little more confusion on my part. It has to do with the ratio 3 to 1. Does 3 to 1 against making the hand mean that if I play the hand 3 times I will win 1 time, or is it if I play 4 time I will loose 3 times and win once?

I would love for someone to help me with this.

Thanks again to everyone for your replies.

8*4=32 (100-32=68) 68/32=2.1

Read the correction to my post in thread from ohshootmybad
 
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I simply cannot believe such a simple calculation could develop into such tortuous and complex calculations. You are sitting at a poker table and need a sure and quick method to arrive at an answer to an odds problem. There is $25 in the pot and it will cost you $10 to play ie odds of $25/$10 =2.5. You have 8 outs and can see 5 of the 47 unknown cards. Your winning odds are (47-8) divided by 8, which is 39/8 = 4.875/1. You don't have an option, FOLD
 
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Thanks for the correction :D

Why is it when using the ration method we do not include our call into the pot, but using the other method we do?
No problem.

To answer your question: because we just do.

Seriously, though, it just has to do with converting percentage to ratio.
Honestly, I don't know if I can explain it correctly but I'll do my best.

Lets say a pot is $100 after your opponent bet $25. You need to call $25 to win $100. Using the ratio method, we can see its: $100:$25 or 4:1 pot odds.

4:1 = 20% chance of hitting. Out of 5 [4+1] tries, you win 4, lose 1.

However, $25 is not 20% of $100, it's 25%. So, in order to make sure our ratio method and percentage method are the same, we must include our call with the pot. So, $25 is 20% of $125.
 
MoeJurphy

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No problem.

To answer your question: because we just do.

Seriously, though, it just has to do with converting percentage to ratio.
Honestly, I don't know if I can explain it correctly but I'll do my best.

Lets say a pot is $100 after your opponent bet $25. You need to call $25 to win $100. Using the ratio method, we can see its: $100:$25 or 4:1 pot odds.

4:1 = 20% chance of hitting. Out of 5 [4+1] tries, you win 4, lose 1.

However, $25 is not 20% of $100, it's 25%. So, in order to make sure our ratio method and percentage method are the same, we must include our call with the pot. So, $25 is 20% of $125.

Perfect, my brain now understands :D
 
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Figuring Odds Out.

OP... free odds and outs trainer. Run this for a week or so and you'll have this stuff down. No catch, it's free:

http://www.acepokersolutions.com/Poker-equity-calculator/

Run it in basic mode, and then advanced mode once you have that down.

Ok cool thank you so much for the link. I will definitely spend some time there.

Here is a couple of links I found that explain the stuff I was trying to figure out in a way that I could understand. I am posting it here because I know other people will see this post and other people will find the info helpful.

http://www.pokerlistings.com/strategy/how-not-to-suck-at-poker-learn-basic-odds

http://www.pokerlistings.com/strategy/poker-math/how-to-calculate-pot-odds-and-equity-equity

Thank you to everyone who has helped make this thread awesome. A real big thank you to ohshootmybad and MoeJurphy for getting me pointed in the right direction. Without what you both posted I don't think I would've know what I was looking for to find those links I just posted.

Cheers,

Jay
 
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