Originally Posted by brank
So in the hand with the set of 2s you dont give him credit for TT or maybe even slowplayin JJ. Is that because you're sure he 3 bets those every time preflop or that he would never c/r that when the flush hits? That line about flop sets was lolz.
JJ/TT are very unlikely because:
1) They usually 3-bet preflop
2) They usually check/raise the flop
3) They might not check/raise the turn
Let's say they cold call preflop 20% of the time, check/call the flop 30% of the time, and check/raise the turn 80% of the time. The chances of villain taking this line with either hand is only .2 x .3 x .8 = .048, or a little under 5%. Since there are only 6 combos, we have .3 weighted combos of those hands. That means it's about 3 times as likely that villain holds precisely 89 of clubs. Multiply that by the number of club draws he could hold, and we're looking at a very flush-heavy range.
In the hand after that I'm wondering why you don't include the wheel draw A4 and A2 and A3 into his range....
Yes, those hands can be in his range. They are reasonable parts of his range, although to be thorough, his range can probably contain any two cards. His line of "defend the blind, donk the flop" can mean virtually anything, particularly since I have a short stack. I would weight A2 and A3 behind 9x, hearts, 54, and A4 in his range, but ahead of stuff like KQ, J7, etc.