Formula EV

loquillowin

loquillowin

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Hello

Well, I wish I could explain the development of this formula that I can not understand it.
This is the formula for EV:

EV = FE * DM + (1-FE) * [(Eq Pot * * 0.95) -stack remaining]

and this is already developed with an example: (This is where I do not understand)

EV = 0.7 * 1.75 + 0.3 * [(25.39 * 0.3157 * 0.95) -12.07] = 1.225 to 1.3365 = -0.11

I have tried to develop in many ways but never goes well, even if I put all in a calcladora.

Thank You

regards
 
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floweryhead

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Well... I've no idea where you got this from but am curious as to what the FE & DM mean? I work out Expectation in a different way to this using likely hand ranges and the amount of times I win minus the amount of times I lose in that particular situation.
 
Marcwantstowin

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Well... I've no idea where you got this from but am curious as to what the FE & DM mean? I work out Expectation in a different way to this using likely hand ranges and the amount of times I win minus the amount of times I lose in that particular situation.

I totally agree with floweryhead. This is how most people work out their EV. I personally would not have the time or brain when I'm sat there with 77 and have a raise and a call to me.............I suggest you stick to the this and disregard your formula..............gl :D:D:D

P.s There are plenty of good threads on here about EV. If you read some of them no doubt you will be able to work out EV without having a math degree !!
 
Fknife

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Well... I've no idea where you got this from but am curious as to what the FE & DM mean? I work out Expectation in a different way to this using likely hand ranges and the amount of times I win minus the amount of times I lose in that particular situation.

Probably Fold equity and Dead Money. Thats your "amount of times I win" part. Its probably some kind of a 4bet-shove or BvB game, although I think it lacks (its not complete) the other part of the EV equation - when you get called (1 - FE) and you still have some equity share of the pot.
 
loquillowin

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on equity

How to make an estimate of pot equity, equity, etc fold equity?
 
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floweryhead

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Probably Fold Equity and Dead Money. Thats your "amount of times I win" part. Its probably some kind of a 4bet-shove or BvB game, although I think it lacks (its not complete) the other part of the EV equation - when you get called (1 - FE) and you still have some equity share of the pot.

Cheers for that I was thinking it was something I'd never heard of... when in reality...it's more or less what I would've thought ...
 
LD1977

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The formula seems to be good and it even includes rake. I don't see what the problem is?
 
Fknife

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The formula seems to be good and it even includes rake. I don't see what the problem is?

Oh yea, you're right. I've never cared about rake therefore the equation seemed weird for me, first time I looked at it. Isnt rake capped at some point though? (not to mention differences in limits and number of players)
 
LD1977

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Sure but presumably that is already averaged in that rake coefficient. Also if he is playing MSS (where 4bet shoving is profitable) then he never caps.
 
jayrock334

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this post just goes over my head I hope to get a bettor understanding from the threads on here
 
DrazaFFT

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i dont get this part...
[(Eq Pot * * 0.95) -stack remaining]
is something left out here???? between the two **
is is pot equity x total pot x 0.95 - stack remaining
stack remaining is actually our bet (4bet shove) because it will only make sense in that scenario, that is why we have 1-FE which is the part of the range we stackoff

is 0.95 the rake part???
 
Fknife

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i dont get this part...
[(Eq Pot * * 0.95) -stack remaining]
is something left out here???? between the two **
is is pot equity x total pot x 0.95 - stack remaining
stack remaining is actually our bet (4bet shove) because it will only make sense in that scenario, that is why we have 1-FE which is the part of the range we stackoff

is 0.95 the rake part???

Generally, its something like this:

EV = (FE * DM) + (1 - FE)[PE * (DM + S)] - (1 - FE)[(1 - PE) * S]

where:

FE - Fold Equity
DM - Dead Money
PE - Pot Equity
S- Shove Size

You can transform this into:

EV = (FE * DM) + (1 - FE)[PE * Pot - S]

where Pot = DM + S

PE * Pot is your expected stack size so I guess multiplying it by 0.95 is equivalent to getting 5% of rake from the pot... I think...
 
DrazaFFT

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shouldnt pot be total pot? dead money + shove size + call?
 
Fknife

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shouldnt pot be total pot? dead money + shove size + call?

Its a risk:reward situation so...you risk the amount you shove S to win the the amount which is in the pot: DM (pot size before the shove) and the amount villain called your shove with (Here).
 
LD1977

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i dont get this part...
[(Eq Pot * STACKOFF POT SIZE * 0.95) -stack remaining]
is something left out here???? between the two **
is is pot equity x total pot x 0.95 - stack remaining
stack remaining is actually our bet (4bet shove) because it will only make sense in that scenario, that is why we have 1-FE which is the part of the range we stackoff

is 0.95 the rake part???

Fixed. It is included in his numbers below.
 
DrazaFFT

DrazaFFT

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so is STACKOFF POT SIZE = TOTAL POT (all the money in)
 
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