Folding big hands on the bubble

Say the blinds are 80/160 and theres 4 players left. Hero has 2,000 in chips, two guys have around 1,000 and then theres the big chip leader. Should the hero be folding QQ and such just to avoid any beats whatsoever and let another guy get blinded out?

no, push...unless you don't feel you can win a 70/30 or so.

if you double up against the chip leader you would have a way better chance to win.

If you playing to just cash, you COULD fold, but if you want to win you gotta shove. If you double up you will be in great position to win, and most peopl tighten up on the bubble, so you might even take it down uncontested.

Yeah ok, I understand now. Statisically I'm going to make more money pushing. Its just I lost like this and was feeling bad so I created the thread. Oh well, gotta build a better emotional wall.

Show Nun Bat Toe said:

Its just I lost like this and was feeling bad

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Gotta ignore the variance.......Make the profitable decision at all times

Nobody wants to go out on the bubble. You need to exploit that with big hands like QQ. You may just steal the blinds preflop but a small pot is better than no pot at all.

If your on the bubble of a satellite where everyone gets paid exactly the same amount whether 1st or last in chips when in the money. Those 1000 chip stacks were like 500-600 instead then it might be better to fold the QQ. But only if the big stack is being super aggressive and going to put you all in no matter what

You didn't say how many get paid. I'm guessing you mean 9 plr SNG and 3 get paid.
odds are you got the best hand with only 4 in it. I would probably bet 3 or 4 times the blind and if I get called see what flops. I'd hate risking my whole tourney on one hand especially after getting that far. But I'm more conservative than others might be. Just my openion.

It is hard not to fold on the bubble sometimes and the one pushing you knows it. On full tilt lately I have got in the habit of just wanting to cash because of donks and bad beats, but I am of the mind to play that now and suffer the consequences or reap the rewards

Show Nun Bat Toe said:

Say the blinds are 80/160 and theres 4 players left. Hero has 2,000 in chips, two guys have around 1,000 and then theres the big chip leader. Should the hero be folding QQ and such just to avoid any beats whatsoever and let another guy get blinded out?

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There are no guarantees that one of the others will be blinded out. You're sitting on ~12bb's and a couple more orbits & if the blinds go up, you might find yourself being the shortstack on the table.
If your stack was close to the size of the CL (ie. if stack sizes were 5,500 6,000 1,000 & 1,000) and CL shoves preflop,... QQ is a clear fold.

easy, im shoving on QQ.... You have to take the risk, if not players will run over you all the time.
At best the only call you are going to see is AK, or AA, unless it's a loose player that calls.
See Poker Orifices post...

Playing on the bubble can be the hardest part of any game. I try to play quite aggressive and steel blinds where ever can but I have to admit that there have been times when I have just sat back and waited for somebody else to make a mistake. A lot depends on the prizes. In most MTT's the lower placings are not much more than your stake and you need to finish pretty high up to get a decent return.

I would shove..QQ is a great hand for this and you may not get a better chance before your blinded out.

Like a few people have said already, 99% of the time this is an easy push. If you go into things just wanting to cash, you will miss out on the real money (ie 1st and 2nd). Making it to first place a few times will make you a lot more money then if you just cash more. Aim high, the rewards are much sweeter up there.

Your position in relation to the big stack is important. If he has folded and it gets to you, it can be profitable to push any two cards against the two smaller stacks if they are tight players. If they are both loose players, one of them will blind themself out.

Have you looked at ICM calculations and theory? It is definitley worth looking at if you are playing sit n gos or small multi table tournaments.

If you're talking about a SNG it might be correct to raise and fold to a re-raise depending on the table. Bubble play is really explained in harringtons third book on holdem tourneys.

Thinking about the maths in general, it should be correct to call if a loose small stack re-raises, but if the big stack comes over the top being quite tight then its quite a clear fold. If you raise 2.5x or 3x and someone comes over the top and you've pinned them as tight a fold is not bad since you are still going to be second or third in chips while the smaller stack(s) will have have the biggest chance to go out fourth.

Think about both options here. If you fold to shown strength then you are not making a big mistake since you are keeping a chance of cashing high which is more important in SNGs as the money is significant even in third place. If you win with the queens then you either take the blinds or double up.

The question is if the double up is worth the risk which again depends on your read of the player

lol at everyone saying they are shoving

obv it is not a fold but u have too much chips to just open shove.

I like to ramp up the aggression as much as I can without letting on that Im doing so, when approaching the bubble. To me it just makes sense to take advantage of the majority of players tendency to pucker their A-holes to make this paticiluar game a profit. To me the difference between profit or not , is not why I enter an MTT. I try to look further ahead given the poker gods arent too moody.

You have to ask yourself, self do I want to win this? If the answer is just to cash, then fold. For the win you need to get a little aggressive and go for it.