Folded outs

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feecg

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Have some of you ever though about having better estimate of left outs when there are a lot of folded cards from the deck from the other players?
For example
You hold a hand like 98s, you're seated on the cutoff and you are playing against the UTG, who, you think, is probably hold two higher cards, like KQo or something like this. Then the flop comes T87 rainbow, and then, you get an OESD (open ended stragiht draw, for those who don't know) and hit the medium pair. In theory you have 13 outs, three 9, two 8, four 6, and four Jacks, but and the folded cards, I mean, there were 7 players who didn't play that hand, and probably there's a very nice chance there are one or two Jacks,sixes, nines and eights in those folded hands, don't you think? and then our outs decrease and we could be making a -EV decision.
Well I know it may be a very neurotic thinking, but I just want to know your opinion about "lost or folded outs".

Thank you for response
 
Andrew Popov

Andrew Popov

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This makes sense, although we can not estimate how many outs we lose.

By the way, sometimes it works the other way round. For example, if all the players who usually play with any ace fold before the blinds - we can assume a higher chance of getting an ace on the board, or that the aces are at the villain on the BB.

But unfortunately these are only abstract arguments, which can not be supported by calculations. That is why, poker can not be calculated absolutely accurately, there will always be an error due to such cards.
 
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ph_il

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Since it's impossible to know what outs are gone, you always calculate for your total true outs as it's possible to have outs that can improve your opponents range. Situations like you hitting the low end of an OESD that also helps a higher straight.
 
OzExorcist

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Yep. Unless you've somehow seen the folded cards (which would be cheating), you have no way of knowing what they were so there's no point trying to account for them.
 
orchidra

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Have some of you ever though about having better estimate of left outs when there are a lot of folded cards from the deck from the other players?
For example
You hold a hand like 98s, you're seated on the cutoff and you are playing against the UTG, who, you think, is probably hold two higher cards, like KQo or something like this. Then the flop comes T87 rainbow, and then, you get an OESD (open ended stragiht draw, for those who don't know) and hit the medium pair. In theory you have 13 outs, three 9, two 8, four 6, and four Jacks, but and the folded cards, I mean, there were 7 players who didn't play that hand, and probably there's a very nice chance there are one or two Jacks,sixes, nines and eights in those folded hands, don't you think? and then our outs decrease and we could be making a -EV decision.
Well I know it may be a very neurotic thinking, but I just want to know your opinion about "lost or folded outs".

Thank you for response

If I understood your question correctly, and you are talking only about Texas Holdem, then Oz sums it up.

Yep. Unless you've somehow seen the folded cards (which would be cheating), you have no way of knowing what they were so there's no point trying to account for them.

But with Razz, Stud, Stud Hi Lo, etc. it's not only possible but the correct thing to do.
 
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OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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But with Razz, Stud, Stud Hi Lo, etc. it's not only desirable the correct thing to do.

Yes, obviously counting dead upcards is part of the skill of playing stud games.

OP was very clearly talking about hold 'em games though, so kept the answer relevant to that.
 
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