Fold equity...

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stevertrmurray

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I've seen the term fold equity in posts....can someone explain to me exactly what that is. It would seem obvious but I'm not sure what it is or how to use it to better my decisions.
 
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Caesura

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As no one has answered, I will try. I don't know how to work out the maths involved but essentially it's how big your stack / bet is compared to your opponents. i.e. if you shove does it make more sense for your opponent to fold?
For instance you have 1,500 chips, your opponent has 2,500. You shove then if they call they stand to lose over half their stack. If you only have 500 chips then it makes sense for them to call and you have very low fold equity.
Sorry not to post a link but I'm sure there are plenty of articles around.
 
micromachine

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It's not the easiest concept to explain so check the wikipedia page :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fold_equity

Your fold equity is greater:
1) against tight players compared to loose players and calling stations
2) on dry boards than wet boards
3) when your stack is large enough that folding is a good option for your opponent
4) when you have a 'good' table image ie. you haven't been caught bluffing yet.

Sometimes you will be behind in a hand yet raising or shoving is more profitable than calling and trying to improve because you have fold equity.
 
Arjonius

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It's the difference between your share of the pot based on the card odds at the time and your share based on the cards odds plus the probability that the opponent will fold if you bet.

In practice, it's often not easy to estimate your fold equity because you have to estimate / guess what the card odds are, and also what the probability of the opponent folding is, both of which can differ considerably depending on his holding. And there are other factors too, including but not limited to his style, the pot odds, the effective stacks, any image he may have of you, the field situation if you're in a tournament, etc.
 
fletchdad

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You can calculate fold equity as the % of the time you think a player will fold to your bet, raise or re raise. If you see a player who calls bets pre OOP (out of position) then checks when he misses the flop, your FE is very high if checked to OTF. So you could bet into this player with any two cards and expect him to fold a large % of the time. You can also use FE combined with your equity in the hand. Like, if you put a player on a strong high pair, and you have a straight and flush draw, you can raise or re raise (of course, other factors must be considered but for simplicity's sake) and if you are called, you still have outs, so if you think he is capable of laying down a strong hand some of the time to you, you have extra equity in that he may just fold. There are many factors that influence your FE: Your image, the texture of the flop, action so far, relative position of all players involved, the number of players involved are a few, and of course you only have FE vs players who know how to fold.



EDIT: lol, I started typing an answer and then someone came over and I was distracted, finished and voila..... MANY other answers in a few minutes...
 
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stevertrmurray

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Thank you for the insight....
 
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stevertrmurray

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Pulled this off of http://www.pokerlistings.com/strateg...ut-fold-equity
Thanks for the link tcummo


In no form of poker do you rely on fold equity more than in tournament poker.
As the blinds increase and your M value decreases, you're going to need to start stealing blinds to keep afloat. If you do not steal blinds, you won't last long. The blinds will swallow you up and your tournament will be finished.
Most tournaments see rapid blind increases. There just isn't time to sit back and wait for aces. You have to make do, and you make do by "stealing" with worse-than-average hands.
Full Tilt pro Allen Cunningham: Big fan of stealing blinds.


Let's say you have seven BBs in the late stages of an online multi-table sit-and-go. The average stack is likely around 15 BBs, and the chip leader may only have 30 BBs. It's time to get moving and accumulate some chips.
In this stage of the tournament you have two options, shove or fold. (This article fills in the background as to why these are your two choices.) As we established earlier, good hands are not going to come along fast enough to save you, so you must start shoving worse-than-average hands.
Shoving a hand like T♥ 9♥ isn't a play made for value. Your goal is to have your opponents fold so you can take down the blinds and antes without a fight.
You rely mostly on fold equity. That's not to say that you should push any two cards and rely completely on your opponents folding, because that just isn't going to happen all the time.
 
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stevertrmurray

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Sorry didn't mean to get the picture of Allen on there lol!
 
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