The flaw with the “long haul” approach

I've heard a lot of people talking about how you have to play each hand based on how you will win the hand over a lifetime. Here's my problem with that. Let's say in 1/2 NL Hold’em, every time you have pocket Aces you bet $20 pre-flop. You get called once and lose. You're down $20. The next 5 times you get the hand you win, but force everyone out pre-flop with the bet. All you're winning is the blinds. So over 6 hands of pocket Aces you win 5 hands x 3 blinds = 5 x 3 = $15 won vs. $25 lost. So even though you win 5 out of 6 time you have pocket Aces you’re still losing $10 over the long haul. Please don't get me wrong, I'm not saying everyone will fold to a $20 bet 5 hands in a row. What I'm saying is, the philosophy of "Play for the long haul" does not take into account the possibility of getting payed for wins less than giving up in losses. If your losing pots are 10 times higher than your winning pots, you have to win 10 times to even out just 1 loss.
I believe this is an inherent flaw in the “playing good pays out in the long run” approach to poker. You can’t just play good, you have to win better than you lose every time you have the same hand more than once. So if you’re betting big and people are folding for your wins, you may be coming out on the losing end of that type of hand.

I believe your argument has some merit and could be applied to OGT as intrepreted of late.
I will let others do the math I will try to play poker.

Your only taking into account pre flop..... A wet board doesn't mean you play it the same way. I see what your saying.

after such conclusions we begin to play different garbage and bluff, having less than nothing. for a calm pair of ladies ...

No need to complicate anything, I think you are spot-on with your approach mentally and mathematically. This is real talk people! The only game you should be playing for the "long haul" is life! Can I get a Hallelujah?! Let's face it, we don't know what cards that tomorrow will deal to us. So before we decide how we will play in a month, realize...retain only the value of yesterday, play lights-out, focused on maximum value of our time/ minimize losses of our dollars today, and give thanks to God if we are given an opportunity to be more clever, intuitive and gracious tomorrow.

Right now, I know that my two cards don't matter to me near as much as they do to you, Right now, accumulating all of your chips using the least possible number of hands means more to me than their value will be when the game is over. Right now, being friends is not an option. Right now, winning is all that I am. Maximum by the minimum psychology.




.....smiling more, wins more, makes me smile more.....

in 1-2 blinds dont put 20 with aa bet 6 and you will win long time.This is very obvious you have monster when you raise 10bb. Raise 3bb and if someone reraises you then 4 bet

I understand your reasoning here.Although your math feels correct, the issue is more of the fact that you would bet the $20 pre-flop.


In that case your assumption is correct, but your aim should be to get the $20 and your enemies $20's in the pot by the river.


Getting value bets in rather than shoving it and scaring anyone who might make a hand on the flop you can beat later on.


Maybe try slowplaying those monsters once, in a while, but not 'to slow' getting value over limpers

'In the long run' means your variance will even out it doesn't take into account poor play.

Halleluja!!!cguru:

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/learning-poker-57/flaw-long-haul-approach-363183/post-4136977.html
Nice post.

Yeah I was thinking the same, you need 3 lifetimes for the long run. Don-t take it as a fact, adapt your style to make it real. You lost 20 on aces? next time be tricky with aces, make them worth, try to grow the pot slowly and fill it up with nuts. You want to win 40 now at least!

I like to treat the game as if I am running a business. I try to make smart investments that can yield large returns while also keeping myself out of sticky situations.

And people wonder why I am always minimum raising. Not because I am trying to shove them out of the pot. It is to get in several raises by the river so the pot is worth while to win.