Finding my leaks (overplaying hands)

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DeusEx_Machina

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**Cliffs at bottom**

First off, hello to everyone! This will be my first post and I look to make a lot more in the future! I’ve been playing poker since I was around 17 – house games, local shops after hours tourneys and whatnot. Over the past few months I have decided to really buckle down and focus on my game. I was always a winning player in house games so I felt there may be some aptitude there.

I’ve played around 100 hours in live casinos over the past couple of months and am averaging 30-35/hr at 1/2. I feel confident in my live game thus far - still studying my game and learning and staying humble though. Despite this, I seem to be falling short in online play.

I started with a $250 deposit, doubled that really quickly, then busted back down to $200. I’ve been floating between 150-250 now and can’t seem to adjust to change that. It seems like I grind up a few BI’s then bust them in bad beats (usually people catching draws) – rinse and repeat.

I invested in a HUD to further analyze my play (Bovada – Holdem Indicator) and it usually places me as tight aggressive – then will bounce to overplays at times. I’m assuming that is one of my leaks, but I can’t for the life of me figure out exactly what to do about plugging that. I have searched and googled and can’t find anything that gives me an idea on what to do.

I usually bet very aggressively against draws – pot sized bets normally but it seems EVERYONE chases them so over time I win the ones that bust, but since no one seems to fold at these stakes, I seem to lose more often than not. Should I just stop doing this altogether? Or lower my bets?

Anyway, any help/advice would be much appreciated!

Here’s the short version:

Overplaying hands are one of my leaks. There may be others, but I think this is the big one.

I play 25nl 6max mostly - online

My initial deposit isn’t my entire bankroll. I have 100 or so BI’s in all, just still feeling out this online stuff before committing huge.

I don’t really have any examples to give of my play, still working on figuring out all this software – I will try and get a few though if needed.

Does anyone know of any good things to look for to see if I am overplaying? And how to stop that leak?

Thanks again!!!
 
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Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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First off, welcome. :)

The best thing to do is make a note of hands that you think may be relevant, then review them in the cold light of day after you're finished with your session. It's often amazing how different things can look when the pressure and stress are off. Posting relevant hands to the hand analysis forums here will definitely help too if you're still unsure.

With regards to the situation you posted regarding betting and getting called by people with draws - this is exactly what you want to happen assuming you're sizing your bets appropriately. Of course, when the draw hits you will lose, but if you're betting $80 into a $100 pot on the flop and getting called by someone on a draw that's only going to hit a quarter of the time on the turn, well you don't need to be a mathematical genuis to determine that it's a good deal for you in the long run! The crucial thing is not to be results-oriented. Just because you lost a hand doesn't mean you played it incorrectly (similarly just because you won a hand doesn't mean you played it perfectly!)

Regarding overplaying hands in general, I wrote a piece many years ago back when I actually used to post thought-provoking stuff that might help here.
 
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DeusEx_Machina

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Thanks for the quick reply! I am going to read your article now :)

I always make 3/4-pot sized bets when I hit the flop and see a draw on the board. In live poker, this is highly profitable... but online I can't help but feel like I am losing money doing it :\

It seems the pots I win with busted draws are small and the ones I lose when they hit their draws are large... I really need to figure out how to balance that!
 
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ezevan1022

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If your going to play somewhat seriously I would highly recommend buying leak busters and it will tell you exactly what your major leaks are.
 
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matiusaa

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Well, you have to bet so as not to give the odds to the villian. Lets supose you believe that the other player is after a flush draw, you should bet more than the pot in order for him not having the correct odds to fold (as he has 1/3 chance of hitting his draw once on the flop, so even if you bet the pot, he will still have the odds).
 
Vfranks

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Do you have any HH software like HEM or PT? If you could post a few hands where you feel you are in one of these spots?
 
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DeusEx_Machina

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If your going to play somewhat seriously I would highly recommend buying leak busters and it will tell you exactly what your major leaks are.

I will look into investing in that. Can you elaborate on what it would do for me exactly? I get the general idea, but how would it show my leaks?

Well, you have to bet so as not to give the odds to the villian. Lets supose you believe that the other player is after a flush draw, you should bet more than the pot in order for him not having the correct odds to fold (as he has 1/3 chance of hitting his draw once on the flop, so even if you bet the pot, he will still have the odds).

This is something I already do. In live poker it is very profitable; online I seem to be losing money doing it. People are hitting draws far more often online than I have ever seen in live. Maybe the issue I am having is people are more willing to chase at such low stakes? I know when I throw $125 in the pot post flop in a live game, very few people are willing to gamble with that kind of money on a draw. Perhaps people just don’t care about the few bucks??
Would it behoove me to go up to the same stakes I play live? I’ve heard people refer to micro’s as bingo… there really does seem to be some truth to this and I feel the math is skewed when you have so many people playing with nothing. It also seems to be a controversial subject of someone claiming to be “profitable” at the micros. What’s your take on this?

Do you have any HH software like HEM or PT? If you could post a few hands where you feel you are in one of these spots?

I play Bovada so I purchased Holdem Indicator. I’m still learning how to use all of its features, though. I will comb through some of my plays and post them to give some examples.


Thanks again to everyone’s responses! Sorry it took me so long to get back to you, busy week!
 
Aces2w1n

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The thing is about online. Your playing a lot more hands so everything appears to be enhanced. Also most ppl who start online and this happened to me as well we all remember the bad hands and tend to forget the good ones.
 
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DeusEx_Machina

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The thing is about online. Your playing a lot more hands so everything appears to be enhanced. Also most ppl who start online and this happened to me as well we all remember the bad hands and tend to forget the good ones.

That's true for live too haha! I definitely agree with you and you're right about the increase in hands, I didn't really think about that. I am working on getting some hand analysis software so I can look at things more broadly... and post some of my hands.
 
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DeusEx_Machina

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Ok I'll have to write this one out and you guys tell me what you would do:

UTG +1 (me) 6d8d
UTG raises .75

I call - one other caller

Flop:
5c 7s 8c

UTG checks
I raise pot (thinking he's on a draw)
other person folds
UTG calls

Turn:
8h

UTG checks
I bet 3.30 (still on the draw and now I have top set)
UTG re raises all in


Proceed....

Here's some more food for thought on my recent down swing.

I turn top set Q's J kicker - get called by a K kicker - felted
Flop nut flush - someone goes all in w/ 2 pair - catches full house - felted
I flop nut straight - someone goes all in w/ some suited cards - catches runner runner flush - felted
The problem listed above - he caught a flush on river - felted
Flop 2 pair AK - guy calls me down with pocket 4's and catches a 4 on the river - lost like 2/3 of my stack (the board was completely dry) <- this happens very frequently, actually - I just don't normally lose THIS much to it.

Down over $200 now in less than 48 hrs... I mean wtf. Should I not call all in with nut flushes/straights/top sets??? Some of these weren't suck out's or bad plays on the other guys part, but still just AWFUL luck for me :\

I've had some bad beats before, but never this many in such a short period of time.
 
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Beasty2k

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Ok I'll have to write this one out and you guys tell me what you would do:

UTG +1 (me) 6d8d
UTG raises .75

I call - one other caller

Flop:
5c 7s 8c

UTG checks
I raise pot (thinking he's on a draw)
other person folds
UTG calls

Turn:
8h

UTG checks
I bet 3.30 (still on the draw and now I have top set)
UTG re raises all in


Proceed....

Here's some more food for thought on my recent down swing.

I turn top set Q's J kicker - get called by a K kicker - felted
Flop nut flush - someone goes all in w/ 2 pair - catches full house - felted
I flop nut straight - someone goes all in w/ some suited cards - catches runner runner flush - felted
The problem listed above - he caught a flush on river - felted
Flop 2 pair AK - guy calls me down with pocket 4's and catches a 4 on the river - lost like 2/3 of my stack (the board was completely dry) <- this happens very frequently, actually - I just don't normally lose THIS much to it.

Down over $200 now in less than 48 hrs... I mean wtf. Should I not call all in with nut flushes/straights/top sets??? Some of these weren't suck out's or bad plays on the other guys part, but still just AWFUL luck for me :\

I've had some bad beats before, but never this many in such a short period of time.

Far from an explanation to ALL your losses/bad beats, but could you be playing too many speculative hands? Especially with kicker problems.

The turn top set with QJ is not a set, it is trips which is a massive difference. And sometimes it can be a clear fold, you will often be dominated with AQ, KQ. Although this might be considered a cooler sometimes. Coolers happen, we just have to deal with it. Same with set over set for instance.

But holding JJ and hitting third J on turn is a set - and is very often the best hand.

I would avoid QJ type hands where you can get outkicked, and probably avoid one-gappers and other weak speculative hands. ESPECIALLY during a downswing. Tighten up, play your strong made hands aggressively. Easy game.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Ok I'll have to write this one out and you guys tell me what you would do:

UTG +1 (me) 6d8d
UTG raises .75

I call - one other caller

Flop:
5c 7s 8c

UTG checks
I raise pot (thinking he's on a draw)
other person folds
UTG calls

Turn:
8h

UTG checks
I bet 3.30 (still on the draw and now I have top set)
UTG re raises all in

90% of this post is irrelevant because you should be folding preflop, especially if you find yourself feeling uncomfortable in postflop situations like this.

Assuming you have no reads on UTG as being particularly loose, there is only a very select group of hands they will be raising with - this being something like AA-JJ/AQ+. You say you bet pot on the flop thinking he's on a draw but in fact you have no real reason to think this - if you look at the average person's UTG raising range then only two specific hands in villain's range give him a draw - AcKc and AcQc. On the flop - sure it could be AcKc/AcQc, but it could just as easily be another AK/AQ hand that has whiffed the flop, or someone with an overpair who is trying (albeit badly given the flop) to trap. Even if you just include the other AK/AQ hands that's many times more possible individual hands than just AcKc/AcQc, thus making it many times more likely.

It seems to me that getting outdrawn often is leading to you thinking "Oh God he must have a draw" every time you get involved in a hand with someone - even when it's pretty unlikely from a statistical point of view when accounting for villain's range. From the tone of your post I'm guessing villain actually did have XcXc and hit on the river, in which case, eh, it happens sometimes. ~80% of the time after getting it in on the turn you win the pot in this case, ~20% of the time you don't, and unfortunately that 20% will happen about, err, about a fifth of the time. :p

But really the one lesson you should be taking from this is that 86s is an autofold against a UTG raise unless you're very confident in your postflop play (and even then it shouldn't be a 'standard' play).
 
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DeusEx_Machina

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I definitely agree with you and I normally would toss that. I had been card dead for a while and my stats were ungodly nitty so I was trying to loosen up a bit to balance things out. I just happened to catch 2 8’s and the turd drew out on me and hit the flush. So yes, he turned over suited garbage (Jc7c or something facepalm-worthy). You are correct in your analysis that I am “draw-paranoid” now. If two suits hit the table I freak. It’s something I’m working on, but when you lose multiple premium hands (straights, sets, etc) to draws… it gives you like PTSD lol.

So I have been doing a lot of hand reviewing and studying – as well as picked up Harrington on Online Cash Games (good read so far). One concept that has helped me IMMENSLY is this:

Win small pots with small hands and big pots with big hands.

That never resonated with me until recently. From my experience in live, TPTK is usually the good enough against a table of donks, but online… not even close it seems. Plus I underestimated online players at the small stakes. I figured they would be soft like live games, not the case either for the most part.
So I have found that I’m putting too much money in with good hands, not great hands. Betting hard every street with TPTK is an example. I’ve started learning how to control the pot better with hands like this so that I don’t overcommit myself of my opponent unless I have a very strong hand.
Coming back up from my downswing now. I started playing SnG’s as well and cashing most of them so that is helping as well. I find I don’t get nearly as tilted when I get sucked out on in a SnG than in a cash game so it has been good medicine to treat my super tilted status lol.

I actually really like SnG’s and am thinking of trying some bigger online tourney’s.

Thanks again for all the input guys! I’ll keep posting updates of my status and look forward to more input. I’m heading to Biloxi next weekend to play, I feel like my game is sharper now actually playing online so hopefully that proves true!
 
John A

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Well, you have to bet so as not to give the odds to the villian. Lets supose you believe that the other player is after a flush draw, you should bet more than the pot in order for him not having the correct odds to fold (as he has 1/3 chance of hitting his draw once on the flop, so even if you bet the pot, he will still have the odds).

? First off, what kind of draw are you talking about? Most draws people have about 1:5 chance of hitting on the turn, unless you're talking about seeing 2 cards, then they have 1:3. That aside, just potting or over betting the pot isn't good advice. You have to think in terms of whole ranges of hands, and how you're going to be playing them, even at 25nl.
 
John A

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I will look into investing in that. Can you elaborate on what it would do for me exactly? I get the general idea, but how would it show my leaks?

Leak Buster will take all of your hands played and isolate your biggest leaks first and explain how to correct them. But you'll need to invest in some software like Holdem Manager 2, etc... It will definetly be worth it if you plan on seriously playing online.
 
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baudib1

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Ok I'll have to write this one out and you guys tell me what you would do:

UTG +1 (me) 6d8d
UTG raises .75

I call - one other caller

Flop:
5c 7s 8c

UTG checks
I raise pot (thinking he's on a draw)
other person folds
UTG calls

Turn:
8h

UTG checks
I bet 3.30 (still on the draw and now I have top set)
UTG re raises all in


Proceed....

Here's some more food for thought on my recent down swing.

I turn top set Q's J kicker - get called by a K kicker - felted
Flop nut flush - someone goes all in w/ 2 pair - catches full house - felted
I flop nut straight - someone goes all in w/ some suited cards - catches runner runner flush - felted
The problem listed above - he caught a flush on river - felted
Flop 2 pair AK - guy calls me down with pocket 4's and catches a 4 on the river - lost like 2/3 of my stack (the board was completely dry) <- this happens very frequently, actually - I just don't normally lose THIS much to it.

Down over $200 now in less than 48 hrs... I mean wtf. Should I not call all in with nut flushes/straights/top sets??? Some of these weren't suck out's or bad plays on the other guys part, but still just AWFUL luck for me :\

I've had some bad beats before, but never this many in such a short period of time.

The fact that you made a post like this indicates that you are a long way from having the mentality needed to truly improve as a player and find, let alone fix, your leaks.

Not to worry though, because most of us start out this way and look at big pots where we got unlucky and wonder what you can do about it.

The answer is: Nothing, you will lose big pots because you got unlucky for as long as you play poker and if you become the best player in the world, these things will still happen to you.

The good news is that losing big pots on coolers is totally irrelevant to your bottom line. As you improve as a player it is possible to turn these situations to your advantage -- since you will bad beat/cooler opponents as often as they do it to you, it may be possible for you to lose less in these spots and to extract more value when you come out ahead. Still, essentially your EV in coolers is about 0.

For every pot where you lose 100 BBs, I guarantee there are 300 spots where you lose 0.5 BBs you aren't even aware of.
 
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DeusEx_Machina

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Leak Buster will take all of your hands played and isolate your biggest leaks first and explain how to correct them. But you'll need to invest in some software like Holdem Manager 2, etc... It will definetly be worth it if you plan on seriously playing online.

It’s definitely on my list of things to buy now for the future. I appreciate the info!

Sorry for the TLDR post guys :p
SO! I have continued to bleed money playing at the micros (gushing, really) so I looked back at everything to analyze what the deal was. One thing I noticed was that I didn’t really start bleeding money until I dropped from 50nl to 10nl (and some 25nl) – per my notes and memory. I dropped after reading a few books, online content, and watching some videos, everyone’s advice was to start at the micros so I wanted to do things “right” for lack of a better word.

I have been utterly CRUSHED in the micros. None of it makes sense to me, my style of play just doesn’t work and I feel if you’re not playing with enough money for it to matter, the odds of randomness simply outweigh your good play (look below for a little better explanation of my view of this)*. I know many will disagree but that’s just how I feel. So after coming to this realization, I went back to 50nl and am almost back in the green again. I feel much more comfortable at these stakes because I can play “similar” to how I play live.

Maybe it’s just time for me to come out of my downswing and it’s a coincidence, but I honestly feel it isn’t. Has anyone else had any similar experiences?

*I feel like the micros are like sitting at a 1/2 table surrounded by billionaires who will call every hand to the river because it’s not enough money to matter to them. Even if you play your best, their infinite bankrolls will win due to random luck. That’s how I feel in the micros; there are an infinite number of people playing with so little money that it has no effect on them if they lose it. How can that be beat? I know everyone has different opinions on this and some people seem to get pretty heated about it. I want to discuss your views and opinions on micros, but please let’s not flame or get heated; I want to discuss it civilly :)

I’m actually trying to look at that concept objectively and discuss it. Perhaps I’m playing with too little money that it has such little effect on me that it clouds my judgment? I’m interest to see what you all think!

So my journey continues, probably at 50nl for the foreseeable future. I’m off to Biloxi to play 1/3 at the Beau this weekend so I’m definitely looking forward to that and I won a $100 free roll live tourney last night so that was a good confidence booster. I was card dead the whole night, too. The first hand I was dealt was AKs and had to lay it down after someone flopped a boat (2 & 7’s I think), so I started out with the “here we go again” sigh, but really buckled down and said “Hell no! This is mine!” lol

The biggest hand I got was a set of 3’s, everything else I went to showdown with was TPTK or two pair and was the short stack most of the night. I was pretty happy with how I was able to stay patient and get it in at the right times.

Oh! One last cool thing, I ran into a guy I played at Harrah’s Cherokee a few weeks ago in 50nl; wild how that happens even with anonymous names!
 
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