Originally Posted by lukeellul92
Micro Tournies are full of people who play any 2 cards because the prize is appealing and the entry fee is small. Best way to win is play super tight and play your very best. IF you do that, you'll have an edge. Just don't be surprised when the trash hand wins, because sometimes it does and it hurts.
Also with Pokerstars, the variance is so high that I doubt its just "good luck", I think you're doing the right thing.!
The variance on PokerStars is the same as live play and every other online game. I've also lost live to 2 and 3 outs several times, it's just that online you play more hands.
I do agree with your first point. Micros (.02 and .11 tourneys) are very luck-dependant. Your job is to put all chips in the middle as a favourite. You will get called by all draws and by all overcards, and they will hit. These tournaments have more to it than just playing tight, you need to avoid being unlucky. I usually bust out quickly as a 70% favourite when someone calls a 7T2 with AQ versus my AA and gets KJ on the next streets. Sometimes my chance to win looks like this: 65%-> 95.5% -> 3% -> 100%. Very strange, but you get used to it. So yea, my experience says that finishing ITM in these tournaments is 60% luck or more.
The only micro tournaments that I think employ more skill than luck are the daily freerolls
in stars, where only 108 or 48 players out of 2000+ win a ticket. These freerolls are luck-only tournaments (skill only comes into play when there are 1000 left) but if you get the ticket you enter a tourney that is mostly skilled. Other than that I find that good tournaments come from $.25 (55% luck 45% skill) and over.
Just my opinion though.