Evaluating Your FreeRoll Results

#1 December 19th, 2020, 6:52 AM

I know they are just FreeRolls, I get that, so more serious players may not be interested in this, but for recreational players like myself, do you ever try to evaluate your results?

For example: If you play in a $100 FreeRoll and there are 100 players, if you are average, you should expect to win $1 on average per game (over let�s just say 100 games).

Being new to PokerChat, and as 2021 is approaching, I am thinking about trying to grade my FreeRoll results. I am thinking if I win my fair share of $'s on average for FreeRolls entered, weighted average of (Prize Pool / # of entries) that I should be considered Average and get a C Grade.

I am struggling with what a B Grade should be... should it be 125% of fair share? or %150, or 200%?

Same questions for what would % equate to an A Grade?

I would be interested to hear from some of the FreeRoll regulars, as to what they think the grading benchmarks should be.

Thank You for Your Thoughts, and Best of Luck at The Tables All,

CheezeWiz

#2 December 19th, 2020, 8:52 PM

I generally dont look at this way. I look at it on a much more simplified level of trying to play my best every time I play which we all know is impossible but it is a goal. I dont try to quantify results too much for myself but more look at it as did I play my best, did I make the best decisions I could, etc. The thing about freerolls are they have more variance than you think since there will always be at least some if not a lot of players who are basically bingo players. You need to call these players when you have a strong hand but also know your AK suited will lose to their 96 off 35 ish % of the time. Therefore, your results can be really skewed during times you are running well and look terrible in times you are running badly. If you are going to go for a grade scale as you mentioned then I would not use a time frame any shorter than 3 months because of the variance. Secondly, I would get a baseline of where I am at now using your method of am I winning my fair share of the prize pool and then try to improve upon that for the next time period.

The last thing I would want you to think is that "oh I suck cause Im not even winning my fair share at freerolls" which is just not true. Freerolls can be tough not because the competition is as tough but because I feel it is more luck based then your typical buy in game. The bingo players will help you over time of course but they are always a possibility to knock you out on any given hand.

Getting to your grading scale I dont think a C would be just getting your fair share. I am not sure on how results would deem out for myself in this but I would feel like if you are getting "your fair share" in freerolls then it is probably more like A- or B+. I think without having the results in front of me that it is harder to get your fair share than you think. The reason for this is freerolls usually have large fields with the bigger payouts top 5 only so to be way ahead of your fair share you will need to bink these freerolls on a somewhat consistent basis. Thats not easy given their larger variance due to opponents playing styles.

#3 December 19th, 2020, 8:53 PM

Originally Posted by CheezeWiz

I know they are just FreeRolls, I get that, so more serious players may not be interested in this, but for recreational players like myself, do you ever try to evaluate your results?

For example: If you play in a $100 FreeRoll and there are 100 players, if you are average, you should expect to win $1 on average per game (over let�s just say 100 games).

Being new to PokerChat, and as 2021 is approaching, I am thinking about trying to grade my FreeRoll results. I am thinking if I win my fair share of $'s on average for FreeRolls entered, weighted average of (Prize Pool / # of entries) that I should be considered Average and get a C Grade.

I am struggling with what a B Grade should be... should it be 125% of fair share? or %150, or 200%?

Same questions for what would % equate to an A Grade?

I would be interested to hear from some of the FreeRoll regulars, as to what they think the grading benchmarks should be.

Thank You for Your Thoughts, and Best of Luck at The Tables All,

CheezeWiz

Thank U 4 Posting

A top tournie pro has say a 50% ROI so with your estimates that would be $1.50. So you could use that as an A grade based on your assumptions.

Now of course that ROI is based on thousands not hundreds of tournies but it should be a good bench mark for you.

The issue is as always in freerolls Villains under fold, so your ROI could be greater than or much less than your skill level at 100 tournaments played.
In fact studies done looking at folding frequencies in low stakes versus mid stakes games suggest that weaker players fold 50% less often than stronger players with a pair. That stops us from bluffing which is a skill based action. Therefore by necessity we can not use ROI as a direct indicator of our skill level when looking at results from freerolls.

Hope this helps
Evaluating Your FreeRoll Results

#4 December 19th, 2020, 8:57 PM

Valuable insights.

#5 December 19th, 2020, 9:16 PM

Freerolls have the most variance with people playing in ways that are both confusing and negative EV with almost every hand. You are not going to be guaranteed a chance at winning with valid consistency in them. You can make deep runs with good plays, but so many people make wild plays that reading opponents is like understanding Trelawney in Harry Potter at the moment she makes a prediction. Do not have many expectations except that most are just wanting to be active and have no patience.

#6 December 21st, 2020, 12:19 AM

You can't agree to the way of thinking.

It's because in-money setting depends on each free roll.

#7 December 21st, 2020, 1:23 AM

Evaluating your play as well as results is always a positive thing in poker.
Good luck at the Freerolls and best of luck charting your progress throughout the games.

#8 December 21st, 2020, 2:25 AM

Originally Posted by 300HPGOD

I generally dont look at this way. I look at it on a much more simplified level of trying to play my best every time I play which we all know is impossible but it is a goal. I dont try to quantify results too much for myself but more look at it as did I play my best, did I make the best decisions I could, etc. The thing about freerolls are they have more variance than you think since there will always be at least some if not a lot of players who are basically bingo players. You need to call these players when you have a strong hand but also know your AK suited will lose to their 96 off 35 ish % of the time. Therefore, your results can be really skewed during times you are running well and look terrible in times you are running badly. If you are going to go for a grade scale as you mentioned then I would not use a time frame any shorter than 3 months because of the variance. Secondly, I would get a baseline of where I am at now using your method of am I winning my fair share of the prize pool and then try to improve upon that for the next time period.

The last thing I would want you to think is that "oh I suck cause Im not even winning my fair share at freerolls" which is just not true. Freerolls can be tough not because the competition is as tough but because I feel it is more luck based then your typical buy in game. The bingo players will help you over time of course but they are always a possibility to knock you out on any given hand.

Getting to your grading scale I dont think a C would be just getting your fair share. I am not sure on how results would deem out for myself in this but I would feel like if you are getting "your fair share" in freerolls then it is probably more like A- or B+. I think without having the results in front of me that it is harder to get your fair share than you think. The reason for this is freerolls usually have large fields with the bigger payouts top 5 only so to be way ahead of your fair share you will need to bink these freerolls on a somewhat consistent basis. Thats not easy given their larger variance due to opponents playing styles.

You make a lot of excellent points in your response and I thoroughly enjoyed reading it. I agree with most of it, and very much appreciate the response! I will respond to few points I see slightly differently.

While I think it is honorable to play your best, every game you play, I like to layer on to that, being aware of the game I am playing, and at what point of that game I am in. While my natural tendency is to play my best poker, it sometimes gets a little tiring to fold to ALL INS in FreeRolls when my cards are good, but really not quite good enough to justify calling the bet size of the opponent. This can just tend to grind your chipstack down early on in the game. So, as long as I understand that I am making a Gamble, I live with the result, and when I catch a Bingo Player, I end up with more chips than I would otherwise have, and then I can resume good play. I tend to think to achieve optimal long run results you have to make one or two of these type of calls.

I still think, winning my "fair share" (as previously defined) should equate to a C Grade or average. If I am not winning my fair share of FreeRoll $'s awarded, my game must not be average, and I must do something different to improve my results. I am new to CardsChat in the last couple months, but I think most of their FreeRolls I am familiar with, pay the top 10-15%, so over 100 games, you should have a pretty good feel for your results.

Thanks Again, 300HPGOD, For the Thoughtful Response, and Best of Luck To You and All at The Tables!

CheezeWiz

#9 December 21st, 2020, 3:27 PM

In my opinion, you should not think only about money. You better think about how to be patient, disciplined and how to make the right decisions.

#10 December 27th, 2020, 10:42 PM

For me, freerolls are a great test for tilt resistance and practice in playing with maniacs. It is not worth giving a serious mathematical basis for this, it is better to analyze errors in the game.

#11 December 28th, 2020, 12:59 AM

It is very much appreciated!

Based upon my initial thinking, and incorporating the feedback that resonates with me the most, I have settled on my grading scale for 2021:

A = 150% of Fair Share of Freeroll Pot
B = 125% of Fair Share of Freeroll Pot
C = 100% of Fair Share of Freeroll Pot
D = 75% of Fair Share of Freeroll Pot
F = 50% of Fair Share of Freeroll Pot

I will track results in 2021 (at least that is my "resolution"...) and we shall see how it goes. I will say, I am a bean counter by nature and trade, so if I commit to it, I can track it.. lol!

Given that I am a recreational player with a full-time and fairly demanding day job, the number of freerolls I can/do play is limited to one, maybe two per day. I currently play at ACR, SB and Intertops. Freerolls will likely be mostly, but not exclusively be CC Freerolls. Just as an additional FYI, I will include any "bonus" type winnings, such as those offered by CardsChat, JackpotFreeRolls, etc. since these are winnings associated with playing for FREE.

I joined CardsChat 2 months ago, and 2-3 weeks later became a Silver Member, and in the last couple weeks became a Platinum Member. While I have not been tracking this specifically, I will say over the last two months I believe I am in the A/B category given my "memorable winnings" and estimated # of games played and "general fair share". On the other hand, I do not believe I have won my fair share, perhaps not even close (C-F range) in silver and platinum games, so far, so that could be a real challenge in 2021, since these will become a bigger portion of my games played.

Oh well, it is a Goal / Self-Challenge... and as Roller wisely said (in my opinion), "Evaluating your play as well as results is always a positive thing in poker."

Thanks Again All for Your Responses, And Best Of Luck at The Tables to All of Us in 2021!

CheezeWiz

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Evaluating Your FreeRoll Results

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