EV? Ranges?

I have been trying to grasp the whole EV thing. Then there's this whole algebraic formula that you are supposed to solve while right in the middle of a hand with the clock running. Ok, so part of the formula is plugging in "a percentage of how often you think the opponent or opponents will fold"? Am I missing something here? Is there a separate way to develop ESP? How in the #### am I supposed to guess this because some folks never fold and when they do I don't see how you can use some formula to "guess: how often they are going to do it. I've tried to practice with some poker training Apps that if I had followed the "plus EV", some small number like 11.2 (which it indicated was good and the proper move for that river card) I would have gotten crushed when the villians hand was shown at the end. Like one App said my A-x with a board of A-J-J was good to push all in with according to the EV but when the villans hand was revealed he had pocket Aces which made him a full house. In a MTT I would get crushed and knocked out. Hey but it was a "positive EV move". But I'm supposed to play like this because, well its a positive EV move? I feel better just using pot odds, 3 bets, check raises etc based on table observation than try all this stuff. Pick my spots. Unless you have some software that does all these calculations for you ( which I'm sure some do) then trying to solves these formulas over and over during a 4-5 hour MTT would drive me completely nuts. Also the other thing is "ranges" I'm supposed to put people on. As I mentioned during a MTT folks are coming and going and I'm supposed to use a chart to figure out probably what range these players are on? Some of these players open utg with 7-2 off. Anyway I guess this whole GTO math based poker these days seems to be more trouble than its worth. I know a good HUD and intuition based on observation to me seems better than trying to do equations all night long. And I know,,,,the more you practice the better you get at just guessing but when you are playing for money theres only so much time a person has.

Hi, to respond to the part where you think you have to do this real time, that is not the case. You study your hands/plays off the table with solvers and analysis software and you'll get an intuitive understanding of situations where you have good EV edges. I haven't done much of this myself so perhaps someone else can weigh in with specifics.

Regarding +EV moves in tournaments. Even if something is EV positive, if there are few outs to a draw, you will require many attempts to finally hit those outs which will drain your stack gradually. And there is some chance that you will never hit that draw and your stack will hit 0 . So even if something is EV positive, if it's very marginal and if you have few outs and you aren't deep stacked, I wouldn't go chasing it. ie: don't set mine with a short stack. In tournaments the chips you lose are worth more than the chips you win.

If you're going to do this, it's better/easier to use the 4 and 2 rules in my opinion.

Rule of 2's and 4's is a good shortcut but only if you have a big enough EV edge (since the rule is an estimate you can end up making -EV decicions in close spots)

For me it's easier to memorize how many outs you need for each bet size (as % of pot). Here are the common ones, I calculated these in Excel.

25% pot.
Both Flop->Turn and Turn->River you need 8 outs minimum.
If 25% is a flop shove you only need 5 outs minimum.

33% Pot
Both Flop->Turn and Turn->River you need 8 outs.
If 33% is a flop shove you also only need 5 outs but now the EV edge is quite marginal vs 25% pot

50% Pot
12 outs needed for both turn or river
7 needed for flop shove

66% Pot
14 outs needed for both turn or river
8 outs needed vs shove

75% Pot
15 for turn, 14 for river, 8 for flop shove (EV edge marginal)

90% Pot
16 turn, 15 river, 9 for flop shove

100% Pot
16 turn, 16 river, 9 for flop shove (with a marginal EV edge again)

200% pot size flop shove needs 11 outs.

5x pot shove on flop needs 13 outs

This isn't the whole story because with certain hands and boards you will also have implied odds and expect to win extra on later streets over what pot odds dictate.

In tournaments you probably need extra outs than the minimums I've listed here because you dont want to risk your chips in marginal EV spots.

Opponent ranges will also impact how many true outs you have.

Also. I just noticed the bit where you mentioned plugging in fold percentages. There is a table out there you can memorize for bet size vs. breakeven fold frequency, or alternatively vs minimum defense frequency. You can memorize that instead of doing calculations. For example, if you can make an opponent fold more than 33% of the time with a half pot bet then it will be a profitable bluff in the long run.

I also find that trying to determine the percentage of time your opponent will fold can be difficult, but HUDs definitely help with that determination. If you are consistently making +EV plays then you will be profitable, obviously we're talking thousands of hands. You do have to realize that it is 'expected' value, not guaranteed, so a lot of times you will make the correct play and not make your hand.