EV Question

I was in a hand on the BB with T5 diamonds and UTG raised to all in (about 2800 chips) right of the bat. I thought about folding as soon as I heard the chips fall, but one player in MP called with around 1200, and then the small blind called. I had about 18k in chips and SB had around 9k. I seen that the pot was big so I took a stab at it with my suits. The flop came out with only one diamond and no pr for my hand. I thought I was in trouble til SB checks it to me. I checked. The turn come another diamond and SB checks it again. Well, I know that I played the EV all wrong, but I was pot committed and made a pot sized bet. This would've put SB almost all in and he folded. Luckily, for me, the river came a diamond and I caught a really nice pot and evicted two from the game.

Did I make a bad call here? I hadn't been at the table long enough to get reads on anyone. I was basically using my chipstack as a shield trying to pick off a big pot. And if I did make a bad call, can you explain what I might have done different?

First of all EV stands for Expectation Value so I don't think you are using it correctly in this case but could be wrong.

As for the hand fold. When UTG shoved and gets callers someone is getting elliminated, you have no reason to get involved as you can't get people who are all in to fold. If they can't fold you have to win a show down and 10/5 even if it is sooooteeed is not the hand to call with.

I thought about that after the hand was over. It came out in the best possible way for me, but I can see what you're saying.

I really need to spend more time on EV and get that one figured out.

EV is your expectation of results. For instance is your expected value (EV) higher or lower by calling, rasing, or folding in any particular situation. This is actually calculateable by the way but I haven't done it in a while. By doing the calculations you can see which of your possible action nets the highest results. Though this is something that is done later away from the tables.

I think eV means "Expected Value," not "Expectation Value," but I may be wrong.

I think you leave out some important information. How much were the blinds at the time and how much more was there to call? Were you short-stacked a la ATC situation (compared to folders)? If so, it's perfectly reasonable to make your stand when you have a big pot odds situation. Or was it mid-tourney and you had a big M? If that's the case, why play such a speculative hand? If you could play it cheaply, yeah sure. But if you're putting a big dent (SB was at half your stack) in a healthy stack just to call out of position with a rotten hand - why do that - even with good pre-flop pot odds? That's a dangerous play because of exactly what happened. You're out of position and the flop and turn are just good enough to suck you in.

Also, you say you were pot committed. I think that's an over-used and misunderstood phrase. If you were truly pot-committed, then why didn't you commit with an all-in? Would you have folded to the SB's all-in? Then you weren't pot-committed. But if you WERE pot committed, use your fold equity, go all in as soon as you are pot committed (if you in fact are) and stop giving free cards.

The pot was $6800 plus whatever your blind was. If your blind was $100 and you were making a $6800 call with your cards - probably a bad play. I think you're asking for somebody to work out the math. I'd like to see that too.

But if your blind was $6000 and you were making an $800 call into a $12,800 - you have position on the SB who has only $3000 chips left - so probably a good play then. See how all the little details matter?

Your new picture throws me? Where's the face of that friendly Ozarks tile-setter we all grew to know and love?

Gary

dg1267 said:

I was in a hand on the BB with T5 diamonds and UTG raised to all in (about 2800 chips) right of the bat. I thought about folding as soon as I heard the chips fall, but one player in MP called with around 1200, and then the small blind called. I had about 18k in chips and SB had around 9k. I seen that the pot was big so I took a stab at it with my suits. The flop came out with only one diamond and no pr for my hand. I thought I was in trouble til SB checks it to me. I checked. The turn come another diamond and SB checks it again. Well, I know that I played the EV all wrong, but I was pot committed and made a pot sized bet. This would've put SB almost all in and he folded. Luckily, for me, the river came a diamond and I caught a really nice pot and evicted two from the game.

Did I make a bad call here? I hadn't been at the table long enough to get reads on anyone. I was basically using my chipstack as a shield trying to pick off a big pot. And if I did make a bad call, can you explain what I might have done different?

Click to expand...

If you assume that the initial raiser and two callers are playing reasonable hands then I think you made a bad call. By reasonable I mean: any pair, any two broadway, and any suited ace. You are only 17% to win against those ranges. That's not enough of a chance to only be getting 2.5/1 (not sure what the blinds were).

And another thing . . .

Since you're calling, you have no leverage (no fold equity) against the first two players. You're stuck with the draw - at least against them. And the small blind may yet come along and put pressure on you that even knocks you out of the draw. So you HAVE to win a draw against at least two players with your hand being 5T. Does this sound like a good position to put yourself in?

If you don't want that pressure from the small blind, then if you are pot committed . . . as you say . . . then you have to put HIM all in. Now you have to win a draw against THREE players. The fact that you lucked out and did this doesn't negate the reality that you put yourself in a lousy lousy situation here. You're obviously smart enough to see that a lucky result like yours still doesn't justify the play.

Luck is good. I'll take it. Did anybody call you a donk? If you ARE lucky enough to suck out like this, be gracious enough to accept it and don't be one of those guys who struts his superiority - unless you use THAT tool to tilt the other players. But of course, those that you just sucked out on are gone. So all you have left are the other players at the table who just saw what a juicy morsel you are.

Gary

Anyway, gl, I was totally wrong about EV. In the end, it all worked out for me. But after looking over some googled items on EV I can see where I made my mistake.

If any of you have anything else that you know about that I could read on EV, it would be appreciated. I've got the concept but would really like to read more about it.

Here is a CC link:

Expected Value (EV) Explained, Poker Probabilities.

Nobody called me a donk, and I didn't strut anything (thank goodness). And after I took out the two all-inners the table broke, so my luck just kept on rolling.

I actually ended up in 10th place in this tourney out of 2800. This was just a mistake I made that I didn't realize till after the fact. I wanted to put it on here, more or less, to get a beating for a job poorly done.

Steveg1976 said:

Here is a CC link:

Expected Value (EV) Explained, Poker Probabilities.

Click to expand...

Ahhh, thanks! I searched it but came up with nothing under titles.

dg1267 said:

I wanted to put it on here, more or less, to get a beating for a job poorly done.

Click to expand...

Well Hell, why didn't you say so? And here we were trying to be helpful.

OK. Here goes:

DONK! Fishy fishy fishy. Donkey. Loser!! You sad-assed moron.

. . . How was that?

dg1267 said:

Ahhh, thanks! I searched it but came up with nothing under titles.

Click to expand...

hmm. I just clicked it and came up fine.

Expected Value (EV) Explained, Poker Probabilities.

I think he was saying he had tried searching previously and was unsuccesful....

bwaaahahahaaaa! That is exactly what I was looking for, gl!