EV Calculation-check

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vis

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Hi,
I want to calculate my EV in this particular spot, not that it's such a tough spot but I just wanted practice EV-calculation.

poker stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2620598
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $11.18 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 1,8, Hands: 389
Hero (SB): $29.27
BB: $11.93 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 21, 3B: 14, AF: 1,2, hands: 164
UTG: $20.27 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 9, 3B: 2, AF: 1,8, Hands: 119
MP: $12.16 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 20, 3B: 7, AF: 2,7, Hands: 156
CO: $5.40 - VPIP: 50, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 4

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with K :heart: K :spade:
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.28, Hero raises to $0.90, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.62

Flop: ($1.90) 6 :club: 3 :heart: T :heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BTN raises to $5.10
I expect the guy to be raising; AhQh(1)/TT(3)/66(3)/AA(1*)/KK(1*)/QQ(6)
*because more often 4bet PF

Obviously the guy is not folding so his raise is actually 5.10+5.18-1.50=$8.68
And then the Pot will be 8.68+1.50+1.50+1.90=$13.68
Our equity against Villains raising range will be ~50%
13.68/2
=$6.84
=Our EV of shoving AI on the flop

Correct?

Any sort of flaws in thought process may well be mentioned.
 
DrazaFFT

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Ill try... Ill be back when im done...
 
DrazaFFT

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from the very beginning ill assume that this guy is OKih after looking at his stats, thus ill also asume that he is positional aware so his opening from BTN will probably be wider than 18/14 probably something like 30% of a hands
22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
since he decided not to 4bet ill asume that he dont have QQ+ AK, arguably maybe decide to flat AK IP but ill keep it this way...
his flat range could be something like
JJ-22, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo, KQo 9% of a hands
I intentionally left all pair in there because there are a lot of players at our level that will setmine incorrectly against 3bet

Now the tricky part imo is will he stackoff every hand he raise here with, does he have a bluff raise range that he will fold if we stackoff etc, to make this simpliest possible ill asume that he will raise all nut flush draw all overpairs (JJ only) all sets and maybe TPTK

JJ,TdTs,TdTc,TsTc,6d6h,6d6s,6h6s,3d3s,3d3c,3s3c,AhQh,AhJh

so its
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Th3h6c
Equity Win Tie
BU 54.21% 54.21% 0.00% { JJ, TdTs, TdTc, TsTc, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 3d3s, 3d3c, 3s3c, AhQh, AhJh }
SB 45.79% 45.79% 0.00% { KhKs }

since in this scenario you went for stacks
and youre slightly underdogg

youre ev is (youre_equity x total_pot)-efective_stack so .45x22.36-11.18 so youre EV is bit in a red -$1.19

in a moree likely scenario youll have some fold equity if he decided to raise weaker top pair or two overs you youre final ev will look different with percentage of hands that he folds to your 3bet allin mulitiplied with the pot that youll take unprotected after he folds, add to that the calculation above and youll have real EV of this hand which is IMO fine to gii with...

Now after rereading your post, were you considered flatting the raise OOP and calculating the EV of that decision????
 
DrazaFFT

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I would love If someone can check this calculation and confirm is it right or what needs to be corrected, got bit confused somewhere along the way... :D

Thanks!!!
 
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vis

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I calculated EV for shoving over his raise on the flop, expecting to have 0% FE.
Not sure if that answers your question..
 
DrazaFFT

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Good, that's what i calculated...
im unsure of the range i gave to him, might have add some more draws and more tens... its a pretty much a flip anyway so your EV cant be big there +/-1ish bucks
 
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Good, that's what i calculated...
im unsure of the range i gave to him, might have add some more draws and more tens... its a pretty much a flip anyway so your EV cant be big there +/-1ish bucks
I didnt really care about the range i gave to him. It's more about if the way i calculated it was the correct way. ;) My range was prob way too tight.
 
DrazaFFT

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Well i might be wrong here, but if you pushed after his raise and he called the total pot is effective stack x 2 + dead money which in this case is 1bb from BB who folded pre so the total pot here is $22.36 and your equity in this hand is pretty much 45-50% so you averagely winning $10-$11 but investing 11+ so your ev cant be 6,84 its gotta be slightly negative or break even at best so somewhere between -$1 and 0

i might be wrong here, im not 100% sure
 
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Well i might be wrong here, but if you pushed after his raise and he called the total pot is effective stack x 2 + dead money which in this case is 1bb from BB who folded pre so the total pot here is $22.36 and your equity in this hand is pretty much 45-50% so you averagely winning $10-$11 but investing 11+ so your ev cant be 6,84 its gotta be slightly negative or break even at best so somewhere between -$1 and 0

i might be wrong here, im not 100% sure
I think the part we have to hypothetically call (cause villain is not folding his raise is considered to be all-in) is not part of the pot. So isnt 8.68 our actual investment in the 13.68 pot?
 
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If Opponent had AhQh(1)/TT(3)/66(3)/AA(1*)/KK(1*)/QQ(6)

then
 

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DrazaFFT

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Havent i came up with the same numbers? :D
Thou i ranged him a bit diferent...
We were stuck with EV calculation :D
 
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Havent i came up with the same numbers? :D
Thou i ranged him a bit diferent...
We were stuck with EV calculation :D

based on 45 % and 55% i got it to +$1.38

EV =(0.45 x 13.68) + (0.55 x -8.68) EV =(6.156) + (-4.774) EV = 1.382
 
DrazaFFT

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But if we dont have fold equity, and we go for stacks how does the post still is 13 shouldnt it be 22?
 
DrazaFFT

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i havent read the article before, now when i read it, the same calculation was used in try's book poker blueprint...
BTW i found the flaw in my calculation, i supposed to subtract the total pot x equity with his remaining stack not with his total stack because when we lose a hand we are not losing is whole stack with this call, only the remaining stack after our bet (it is easier to assume and calculate that he just jammed the whole stack and we call, right???)

BTN: $11.18 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 1,8, Hands: 389
Hero (SB): $29.27
BB: $11.93 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 21, 3B: 14, AF: 1,2, Hands: 164
UTG: $20.27 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 9, 3B: 2, AF: 1,8, Hands: 119
MP: $12.16 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 20, 3B: 7, AF: 2,7, Hands: 156
CO: $5.40 - VPIP: 50, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 4

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with K ♥ K ♠
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.28, Hero raises to $0.90, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.62

Flop: ($1.90) 6 ♣ 3 ♥ T ♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50
based on 45 % and 55% i got it to +$1.38

EV =(0.45 x 13.68) + (0.55 x -8.68) EV =(6.156) + (-4.774) EV = 1.382

after our raise on flop his remaining stack is 11.18 - (preflop call) - (our flop bet) so
11.18 - .90 - 1.5 = 8.78 (you got 8.68 i still dont know where im missing the .10 :confused: anyway its not that important)

45% of a time we will win whole pot which is 22.36 minus the call
.45 x 22.36 - 8.78 = 10.068 - 8.78 = EV$1,28 (the one BB difference that one of us missing somewhere)

Now, see where i went wrong??
youre ev is (youre_equity x total_pot)-efective_stack so .45x22.36-11.18 so youre EV is bit in a red -$1.19

i used his whole stack, not just remaining stack, this have to be right, we got same result, i dont have the online source to back this calculation up, i have learned this from a CC member...

Now can you please break me up how you got 13.68 it just doesn't getting into my head :eek: and also can you do the same with 8.68 (im really curios where i lost that 1BB :D )
 
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i havent read the article before, now when i read it, the same calculation was used in try's book poker blueprint...
BTW i found the flaw in my calculation, i supposed to subtract the total pot x equity with his remaining stack not with his total stack because when we lose a hand we are not losing is whole stack with this call, only the remaining stack after our bet (it is easier to assume and calculate that he just jammed the whole stack and we call, right???)




after our raise on flop his remaining stack is 11.18 - (preflop call) - (our flop bet) so
11.18 - .90 - 1.5 = 8.78 (you got 8.68 i still dont know where im missing the .10 :confused: anyway its not that important)

45% of a time we will win whole pot which is 22.36 minus the call
.45 x 22.36 - 8.78 = 10.068 - 8.78 = EV$1,28 (the one BB difference that one of us missing somewhere)

Now, see where i went wrong??


i used his whole stack, not just remaining stack, this have to be right, we got same result, i dont have the online source to back this calculation up, i have learned this from a CC member...

Now can you please break me up how you got 13.68 it just doesn't getting into my head :eek: and also can you do the same with 8.68 (im really curios where i lost that 1BB :D )

maybe i got it wrong i took it from original poster

"Obviously the guy is not folding so his raise is actually 5.10+5.18-1.50=$8.68
And then the Pot will be 8.68+1.50+1.50+1.90=$13.68"

although his first part is wrong 5.10+5.18-1.50=$8.68 (actually 8.78) ** this is where the missing 10c went :)

the most we can lose is 8.78 and we win

pot on flop is 1.90 and he had 10.28 left +1.50 we bet so pot to win is
1.90 +10.28+1.50 =13.68
we can win 13.68 so now becomes

EV =(0.45 x 13.68) + (0.55 x -8.78)
EV =(6.16) + (-4.83)
EV = 1.33
:coffee:
 
DrazaFFT

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Yes!!! now i got it 13****in68, how i didnt seen it :D
anyway it's too late for the coffee here, may i offer you a :beer:
:D

and one more addition to my calculation, because again we have 1BB difference but this time in EV, i wrongly calculated the whole pot as double of his stack but actually there's 1BB more in a pot that BB folded

.45 x 22.46 - 8.78 = 10.107 - 8.78 = EV$1,327(1,33)

Finally we get the same result!!!! :D

my formula works!!!

:party:
 
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darn my windows calculater for that!! :cool:
 
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rhombus

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Yes!!! now i got it 13****in68, how i didnt seen it :D
anyway it's too late for the coffee here, may i offer you a :beer:
:D

and one more addition to my calculation, because again we have 1BB difference but this time in EV, i wrongly calculated the whole pot as double of his stack but actually there's 1BB more in a pot that BB folded

.45 x 22.46 - 8.78 = 10.107 - 8.78 = EV$1,327(1,33)

Finally we get the same result!!!! :D

my formula works!!!

:party:

Glad mine worked as well, guess we both learned something new as i had an idea how EV calculations worked but never put them into practice.
 
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