This is a discussion on EV Calculationcheck within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; Hi, I want to calculate my EV in this particular spot, not that it's such a tough spot but I just wanted practice EVcalculation. Poker Stars 


#1




EV Calculationcheck
Hi,
I want to calculate my EV in this particular spot, not that it's such a tough spot but I just wanted practice EVcalculation. Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em  6 players  View hand 2620598 DeucesCracked Poker Videos (http://www.deucescracked.com/?referrer=converter_dc) Hand History Converter (http://www.handconverter.com) BTN: $11.18  VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 1,8, Hands: 389 Hero (SB): $29.27 BB: $11.93  VPIP: 22, PFR: 21, 3B: 14, AF: 1,2, Hands: 164 UTG: $20.27  VPIP: 18, PFR: 9, 3B: 2, AF: 1,8, Hands: 119 MP: $12.16  VPIP: 25, PFR: 20, 3B: 7, AF: 2,7, Hands: 156 CO: $5.40  VPIP: 50, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 4 Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with K ♥ K ♠ 3 folds, BTN raises to $0.28, Hero raises to $0.90, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.62 Flop: ($1.90) 6 ♣ 3 ♥ T ♥ (2 players) Hero bets $1.50, BTN raises to $5.10 I expect the guy to be raising; AhQh(1)/TT(3)/66(3)/AA(1*)/KK(1*)/QQ(6) *because more often 4bet PF Obviously the guy is not folding so his raise is actually 5.10+5.181.50=$8.68 And then the Pot will be 8.68+1.50+1.50+1.90=$13.68 Our equity against Villains raising range will be ~50% 13.68/2 =$6.84 =Our EV of shoving AI on the flop Correct? Any sort of flaws in thought process may well be mentioned. 
#3




from the very beginning ill assume that this guy is OKih after looking at his stats, thus ill also asume that he is positional aware so his opening from BTN will probably be wider than 18/14 probably something like 30% of a hands
22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo since he decided not to 4bet ill asume that he dont have QQ+ AK, arguably maybe decide to flat AK IP but ill keep it this way... his flat range could be something like JJ22, AQsATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo, KQo 9% of a hands I intentionally left all pair in there because there are a lot of players at our level that will setmine incorrectly against 3bet Now the tricky part imo is will he stackoff every hand he raise here with, does he have a bluff raise range that he will fold if we stackoff etc, to make this simpliest possible ill asume that he will raise all nut flush draw all overpairs (JJ only) all sets and maybe TPTK JJ,TdTs,TdTc,TsTc,6d6h,6d6s,6h6s,3d3s,3d3c,3s3c,Ah Qh,AhJh so its http://www.pokerstrategy.com Board: Th3h6c Equity Win Tie BU 54.21% 54.21% 0.00% { JJ, TdTs, TdTc, TsTc, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 3d3s, 3d3c, 3s3c, AhQh, AhJh } SB 45.79% 45.79% 0.00% { KhKs } since in this scenario you went for stacks and youre slightly underdogg youre ev is (youre_equity x total_pot)efective_stack so .45x22.3611.18 so youre EV is bit in a red $1.19 in a moree likely scenario youll have some fold equity if he decided to raise weaker top pair or two overs you youre final ev will look different with percentage of hands that he folds to your 3bet allin mulitiplied with the pot that youll take unprotected after he folds, add to that the calculation above and youll have real EV of this hand which is IMO fine to gii with... Now after rereading your post, were you considered flatting the raise OOP and calculating the EV of that decision???? 
#7




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#8




Well i might be wrong here, but if you pushed after his raise and he called the total pot is effective stack x 2 + dead money which in this case is 1bb from BB who folded pre so the total pot here is $22.36 and your equity in this hand is pretty much 4550% so you averagely winning $10$11 but investing 11+ so your ev cant be 6,84 its gotta be slightly negative or break even at best so somewhere between $1 and 0
i might be wrong here, im not 100% sure 
#9




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#13




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EV =(0.45 x 13.68) + (0.55 x 8.68) EV =(6.156) + (4.774) EV = 1.382 
#15




re: Poker & EV Calculationcheck
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I googled it and found http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/expectedvalue/calculate/ 
#16




i havent read the article before, now when i read it, the same calculation was used in try's book poker blueprint...
BTW i found the flaw in my calculation, i supposed to subtract the total pot x equity with his remaining stack not with his total stack because when we lose a hand we are not losing is whole stack with this call, only the remaining stack after our bet (it is easier to assume and calculate that he just jammed the whole stack and we call, right???) Quote:
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11.18  .90  1.5 = 8.78 (you got 8.68 i still dont know where im missing the .10 anyway its not that important) 45% of a time we will win whole pot which is 22.36 minus the call .45 x 22.36  8.78 = 10.068  8.78 = EV$1,28 (the one BB difference that one of us missing somewhere) Now, see where i went wrong?? Quote:
Now can you please break me up how you got 13.68 it just doesn't getting into my head and also can you do the same with 8.68 (im really curios where i lost that 1BB ) 
#17




Quote:
"Obviously the guy is not folding so his raise is actually 5.10+5.181.50=$8.68 And then the Pot will be 8.68+1.50+1.50+1.90=$13.68" although his first part is wrong 5.10+5.181.50=$8.68 (actually 8.78) ** this is where the missing 10c went the most we can lose is 8.78 and we win pot on flop is 1.90 and he had 10.28 left +1.50 we bet so pot to win is 1.90 +10.28+1.50 =13.68 we can win 13.68 so now becomes EV =(0.45 x 13.68) + (0.55 x 8.78) EV =(6.16) + (4.83) EV = 1.33 
#18




Yes!!! now i got it 13****in68, how i didnt seen it
anyway it's too late for the coffee here, may i offer you a and one more addition to my calculation, because again we have 1BB difference but this time in EV, i wrongly calculated the whole pot as double of his stack but actually there's 1BB more in a pot that BB folded .45 x 22.46  8.78 = 10.107  8.78 = EV$1,327(1,33) Finally we get the same result!!!! my formula works!!! 
#20




re: Poker & EV Calculationcheck
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