EV 3 (Semibluffing)

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ivanbbb

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Hello my friends! Continuing his thought about the EV!https://www.boomplayer.com/22364790_D028C593B9
Now we try to relate the material of my articles about the EV into one! we have 13 outs is 26% and we think that 50% of the fold! pot=19.5bb and we put 54.5bb!
We solve the problem!
look at a few options:
1.Opponent fold
2. I shove and win
3. I'm all-in and lose

Calculate the probability that the event will occur 3!
opponent does call in 50% of cases, and that his hand will be the best (100-26 = 74%) 74%
0.5% 0.74% * = 0.37 = 37%

The probability of the event is the outcome №2:
0.5%*0.26%=0.13=13%

option 1:
1-0.37-0.13=0.5=50%

Now recall the basic formula EV:
EV = (P (win) x Potential winnings) - (P (loss) x Potential loss)
in this case:

(P (win 1) x potential win 1) + (P (win 2) x potential win 2) - (P (loss 3) x 3 The potential loss) = EV.

EV= (0,5*19.5bb)+(0,13*74bb)-(0.37*54.5bb)=9,5+9,62-20.165=-1,045

1BB = 40 chips!

EV=40*1,045=41,8=42 chips

It turns out in the long run we lose 42 chips!

It can be concluded! If my bet pre-flop and on the flop would have been bigger! I would get a positive result! I stress once again:

1. Openreyz should be larger with deep stacks.

2. continuation bet should be larger with deep stacks.

Remember my dear friends! What if the stacks = more 60bb, rates should be more! Otherwise, your game will be negative in the long run!

Therefore stack size plays a key role in drawing hands!

successful game at the tables you my dear friends!
 
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ivanbbb

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My friends, I suggest you for a better understanding of this topic!
 
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Steve_StudAA

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Good advice.

This is where I can leak due to being gun shy.

I might have AK and open for a Raise. Board is Q high with draws, C-bet after Check, called, turn nothing.

Fire off another bet after check, called.

River completes some draws, but not mine, I have squat. I suspect the other guy has the TP/TK, I cannot beat that TP. He cannot beat the draw board that I might have.

This is where things get tricky for me. I have raised pre, flop, turn and missed.

My stack is now almost gone, but enough to throw a nice dent into opponent if I had hit.

OK, so often, in that precise situation, I throw my whole stack. Sometimes I get the fold, Often I missed read the opponent and he has TP and shit kicker and I still lose.

Can't blame my opponent really, they seem to be able to put me on the right hand.

TP is just never folded it would also seem unless I am holding the nuts.

Its a struggle I deal with daily.
 
ubo

ubo

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here I agree that with deep stacks raise and combet needs to be larger...
 
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ivanbbb

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here I agree that with deep stacks raise and combet needs to be larger...

))) Soon we will start each other very well understood! thank you friend!
 
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