Equity calculation

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Rudy parmanum

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My hand : AsJs
Opponent : 5c5d

Flop:
5hTs4s

By using the 4/2 I got 32 % equity but with an equity calculator it's around 25 %

Can't understand why there is a big difference in these values
 
BuzzKillington

BuzzKillington

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What does "4/2" mean here? According to the equity calculator I use, it should be around 26%. This is probably because the only way for you to win here is to hit a flush, which is around 33%. But your opponent also has the possibility to hit a quad (very small probability) or a full house (somewhat more likely).
 
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ph_il

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My hand : AsJs
Opponent : 5c5d

Flop:
5hTs4s

By using the 4/2 I got 32 % equity but with an equity calculator it's around 25 %

Can't understand why there is a big difference in these values
You can't used the rule of 4/2 to get 32%. It's either, but not both.

If you're calculating to hit on the turn from the flop, it's [outs x 2]
If you're calculating to hit on the river from the turn, it's [outs x 2]
If you're calculating to hit on either the turn or river from the flop, its [outs x 4]

In your hand, you calculated for 9 outs, but the 5s would give your opponent a 4-of-a-kind to beat your flush.
 
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Rudy parmanum

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Thank you buddy for clearing my misunderstanding
 
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Rudy parmanum

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What does "4/2" mean here? According to the equity calculator I use, it should be around 26%. This is probably because the only way for you to win here is to hit a flush, which is around 33%. But your opponent also has the possibility to hit a quad (very small probability) or a full house (somewhat more likely).

So the chance that my opponents got a quad or full house is responsible for that 7 % decrease.
U have any quick way to estimate equity taking into account the quad or fullhouse possibility?
 
BuzzKillington

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So the chance that my opponents got a quad or full house is responsible for that 7 % decrease.
U have any quick way to estimate equity taking into account the quad or fullhouse possibility?
Well, I think the quad is only responsible for a 1% drop in equity.

Another T or 4 could hit the board. There are 6 of those cards in the deck, which should have 45 cards remaining. Therefore, the probability of one of those cards hitting on the turn is 6/45 is roughly 13%. One of those cards hitting on either the turn or the river is (6/45)*(39/44)+(39/45)*(6/44)+(6/45)*(5/44) is roughly 25%.

So multiply your equity without the full house with 75% (100%-75%) and you get a number around 25%. This seems to be close to the answer I got from the equity calculator.

Anyway, you're already an underdog in this scenario. A flush draw is nice, but chasing the flush is only acceptable if you are confident that you can get your opponent to fold *or* your opponent gives you good pot odds. I believe that if your opponent bets 1/4 of the pot (or less than that), then it is profitable to chase the flush. Of course, if I were them, I would be betting at least 1/2 of the pot to punish flush chasers, as well as value-betting my set.
 
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Rudy parmanum

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Well
That's a very detailed answer.
Really appreciate it
Perhaps a quick way to calculate this is to count his number of outs to the fullhouse and quad
And then to substract this number from the chance we catch our flush
Equity = 36 -( 1 +6 )
 
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