equity - beginner question - confused.

hey guys, a bit confused with something. Would appreciate if any of the math inclined among you could explain it to me. I've been playing NLHE well over a year now and I used to take quick shortcuts to determine equity or rather my chance of hitting a card on turn or river. I used the rule of 4 and 2 where I multiply outs by 4 to get my chances of hitting the card by the river or 2 to determine chance of hitting it on the next card to come. According to Salomons rule or whatever its called I believe if you have over 9 Outs you multiply by 4 and subtract the number of outs exceeding 9 from it.

So if I have an open ended straight/flush draw (15) outs.. my chance of hitting my flush/straight by the river approx. be 15x4 minus 6 (around 54% ?)..15 outs is supposed to be even money no? I was going over two recent beats I received holding an open ended straight/flush draw..once from a dummy straight and once from a set. I was messing about with an application on my phone just now similar to pokerstove and when I gave my opponent a set on the flop and myself an open ended straight draw, I was a bit confused to see I wasnt a favourite at 46%.. Its muddled up my way of calculating that percentage.. this 46% i'm guessing comes from the fact that out of the 47 cards remaining once the flop is open, 15 cards are my outs and 32 are not? 15/32x100 ? .. or should I be going about it as 15/47x100 in which case its an even lower percentage in 30's ? Have I been going about this all wrong trying to get my money in with these hands if i'm not a favourite? and why am I not a favourite against a set? I still have 15 outs? while he could improve to a fullhouse with very few outs?

would appreciate if anybody could explain this to me..

Flop comes out. You are OE and have FD.

47 cards left in deck. You have 15 outs.

15 goes into 47 roughly 3 times. 1 in 3 to hit your card, or 33% to hit. 1 card out of every 3 in the deck could make your hand.

If you are going to call the flop, you will face another decision if you miss the turn. The 46% you referred to is considering you are absolutely seeing hand through to river.

You are not a favorite to win this on the flop. You are flipping almost, but a little behind. This may be due to the fact that not all 15 outs are clean (certain flush cards make a boat).

I hope that helps.

Um with an OESFD you have 17 outs don't you? 9 suited cards for the flush and 8 cards for the straight (4 at each end). Then you have an approx 60% chance of making your hand (17 x 4 - 8).

You were only 48% to win against the set because some of your outs would not have been clean outs as BFK said. Plus, if the turn card pairs with the river card you would lose to a boat, and some of these cards will not even be outs for you, so that needs to be factored in as well.

micromachine said:

Um with an OESFD you have 17 outs don't you? 9 suited cards for the flush and 8 cards for the straight (4 at each end).

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15. 2 of your str8 cards would make a flush, you can't count them twice.




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thanks! that helped immensely! i'm an idiot, didnt discount one of the cards pairing up and didnt remove that specific card from my flush draw either. Makes sense! Would it make sense for all in moves if you're not playing deep stack with OESFD in a 6 handed game if you dont put anyone on a set? THAT should be even money then no? against someone with a lower straight draw or two pair etc?

using my own hand as an example, I was dealt KQd , villain JJ , flop was Jd-10d-5c . Somebody else raised and this guy shoved and I apparently miscalculated. I counted 15 outs, 15x4 - 6 as above 50% equity. But if I were to go about it again , after putting him on that set, the only Out i would have to discount from my 15 outs would be the 5 of diamonds? that would still leave me with 14 outs? 14x4 - 5, still 51%? villain on the other hand for a fullhouse draw would need the 5 to pair, 3 outs? Am i missing something here or should I scrap using this 4 and 2 shortcut altogether

I would ship the flop in that spot for sure. We can't know for sure villain has a set.

OESD and FD is a good spot to be in IMHO.

sir_lagalot said:

thanks! that helped immensely! i'm an idiot, didnt discount one of the cards pairing up and didnt remove that specific card from my flush draw either. Makes sense! Would it make sense for all in moves if you're not playing deep stack with OESFD in a 6 handed game if you dont put anyone on a set? THAT should be even money then no? against someone with a lower straight draw or two pair etc?

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I like playing OESFDs pretty aggressively in cash games and am happy to go all in with them on the flop most of the time, even against sets you're pretty much flipping. Doesn't make much difference being deep stacked or not, doesn't change the equity you have. Obv higher OESFDs are better as you have less risk from higher flushes.

dmorris68 said:

15. 2 of your str8 cards would make a flush, you can't count them twice.

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Of course, ty. I am a tard