Do I have the right odds to call?

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TSully99

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Hey guys new to cardschat this is first post. I want to settle an argument with a friend about what the right play is here wont say which side im on.

25nl holdem

Utg $21.00
Utg +1 $28.00
Co $22.00
Btn $32.00
Hero $31.00
BB $4.95

Utg raises to 75c
Co calls
Hero calls
BB goes all in $4.95
Utg calls
Co calls
Hero calls

Flop 9 7 2
Utg goes all in
Cutoff folds
Hero folds

Hero held 33 was he getting the right implied odds to hit a set to make this call? Please respond in detail.

Thanks guys☺
 
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Foldemz

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Hero held 33 was he getting the right implied odds to hit a set to make this call?

Ok, so let's do a basic EV calculation vs a range of hands that UTG could hold.
We're only taking UTG into consideration here for simplification.

Since you said you thought you were drawing to a 3 I'm going to pop a range of hands in Equilab consisting of any pair.
I'm also going to assume it's a rainbow flop.

On this flop vs UTG's range your equity is as follows:

UTG: 91.63%
Hero: 8.37%

The pot preflop was about 19.80
UTG shoves for 16.05

EV= (.0837 x 35.85) -
((.9163) x 16.05)
= 3 - 14.70
The expected value of a call here is:
-11.70

In other words, I wouldn't make this call.
 
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TSully99

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Ok, so let's do a basic EV calculation vs a range of hands that UTG could hold.
We're only taking UTG into consideration here for simplification.

Since you said you thought you were drawing to a 3 I'm going to pop a range of hands in Equilab consisting of any pair.
I'm also going to assume it's a rainbow flop.

On this flop vs UTG's range your equity is as follows:

UTG: 91.63%
Hero: 8.37%

The pot preflop was about 19.80
UTG shoves for 16.05

EV= (.0837 x 35.85) -
((.9163) x 16.05)
= 3 - 14.70
The expected value of a call here is:
-11.70

In other words, I wouldn't make this call.

Thanks for your reply but i meant to say was did he have the right implied odds to call preflop and set mine

Thanks ☺
 
fletchdad

fletchdad

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Thanks for your reply but i meant to say was did he have the right implied odds to call preflop and set mine

Thanks ☺


If I understand the hand correctly, there are no implied odds, as UTG is all in and it would be HU if you call and no more money to be gotten.
 
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TSully99

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If I understand the hand correctly, there are no implied odds, as UTG is all in and it would be HU if you call and no more money to be gotten.

Sorry i didnt explain it great the bb is all in for 4.95 the utg and co call the 4.95 pre flop and the question is does hero have right implied odds to call the 4.95 here and set mine and fold if does not hit set on flop
 
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Sharkslayer473218

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Re: Am I getting the right price to call

Before I begin here are my qualifications to make this assessment. 1. Online and live player for more than 15 years. 2. Consistently winning at games up to $5 $10, $10 $20 3. Cash game player mainly. So you are wondering if your getting the right odds to flop a set. I could do calculations that a player like you probably wouldn't understand so I'll keep this short and simple. You are getting nowhere near the right immediae odds to make this call however if you hit you set most of your opponents don't have nearly enouht chips to get them off they're hand. You are risking essentially $5 to win a projected pot of around $50 giving you about 10-1 on a call when you have about 12% equity. Although this is a pretty loose call and most players would make a mistake folding it in this spot in the long run this is a call that should be made. Hope that helped =D
 
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Foldemz

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Before I begin here are my qualifications to make this assessment. 1. Online and live player for more than 15 years. 2. Consistently winning at games up to $5 $10, $10 $20 3. Cash game player mainly. So you are wondering if your getting the right odds to flop a set. I could do calculations that a player like you probably wouldn't understand so I'll keep this short and simple. You are getting nowhere near the right immediae odds to make this call however if you hit you set most of your opponents don't have nearly enouht chips to get them off they're hand. You are risking essentially $5 to win a projected pot of around $50 giving you about 10-1 on a call when you have about 12% equity. Although this is a pretty loose call and most players would make a mistake folding it in this spot in the long run this is a call that should be made. Hope that helped =D


hmm...

So... are you the friend in question?
 
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Sharkslayer473218

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hmm...

So... are you the friend in question?

No. It's a standard call actually. I respect your opinion but if you don't think you should make that call you are a nit. Especially at that limit players have a very difficult times folding hands in that spot you can get payed off huge if you hit and worse case is you lose 16% of your stack. If you hit you can at least double up. So maybe think a little about the scenario before you comment back at me like that...
 
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Sharkslayer473218

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No. It's a standard call actually. I respect your opinion but if you don't think you should make that call you are a nit. Especially at that limit players have a very difficult times folding hands in that spot you can get payed off huge if you hit and worse case is you lose 16% of your stack. If you hit you can at least double up. So maybe think a little about the scenario before you comment back at me like that...


Hahahaha just kidding yeah I am his friend and am a bit of a donk
 
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Foldemz

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No. It's a standard call actually. I respect your opinion but if you don't think you should make that call you are a nit. Especially at that limit players have a very difficult times folding hands in that spot you can get payed off huge if you hit and worse case is you lose 16% of your stack. If you hit you can at least double up. So maybe think a little about the scenario before you comment back at me like that...

Hahahaha just kidding yeah I am his friend and am a bit of a donk

I don't care either way. I was just busting your chops.

Anyways, he's getting 3:1 on a call to try to flop a set, but he's risking more than 16% of his stack and it's only 7.5:1 odds of doing so.

He definitely has some implied odds, but I still don't think it's a profitable decision.

A simple way to look at it is if he risked the 4.95 cents with his stack 7.5 times (the odds of flopping a set) would he go broke before he hit it? And the answer is more than likely yes. 4.95 x 7.5 = 37.125, which is more than his stack of 31.00.
 
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DunningKruger

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This is a fold, and it's not particularly close imo but it obv depends on preflop calling ranges and stacking ranges post.

Hero held 33 was he getting the right implied odds to hit a set to make this call?

The implied odds are there if both opponents are going to stack off every time you flop a trey. That's too optimistic an assumption at this limit without further information on the players, and in this specific hand CO demonstrates my point by getting out of the way now that he's seen the flop.

Odds of flopping at least one 3 are 144/1225, so you'll need to extract ~$16 every time you hit beyond what's already in the pot not to lose money on your pre flop call. This is incidentally what each of the other two players have behind, but unfortunately your equity in pots where you hit the board isn't 100% (I would approximate the odds of getting stacked at least 10% per opponent since you'll be checking pretty much your entire range otf). So, even if you get on average one other players stack in every single time you flop a set it's going to prove -EV overall.
 
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