the depth of downswings
I'm a 4NL player on Party. I play 9-seater regular-speed non-jackpot tables. I avoid short tables and tend to choose tables that have the largest average pots.
So far my VPIP/PFR/AF are about 15/9/4.2 over about 5.5K hands.
Over the first 4K hands I won about eight buyins. Over the next 1.5K hands I lost ELEVEN buyins.
What I need to know is, can this wild swinging be attributed to variance, or should I look for holes in my game?
In general, what kind of variance can a player like me expect? In other words, how much more money can I expect to drop before the downswing ends?
(I am tempted to blame my losses on the fact that I tested my Party Cashier MasterCard
with a small cashout, because it's well-known that poker sites
doomswitch anyone who cashes out in order to force them to reverse the withdrawal, but the cashout was puny compared to my bankroll, so I don't want to be paranoid.)