TheMuffier
Rock Star
Silver Level
My thoughts:
I appreciate the relevance of outs (to an extent) when (semi)bluffing but to say I have an X% chance of winning due to my X outs is beyond inaccurate and inconsistent.
Poker is a game of imperfect information. Counting outs assumes perfect information.
Deducting two in case you're double counting is questionable because double counting itself is another fallacy so you're essentially strengthening the reasoning for your fallacy based on principals of another fallacy.
My reasoning for this being a fallacy is strengthened by the fact that all decisions (in an mtt/mtsng) are influenced by either ICM/$EV/CEV/FUTURE CEV so regardless of the number of outs you have if the decision is not favoured by the above considerations then the play is incorrect.
Allow me to demonstrate.
We are 7 handed at a final table.
7th place is guaranteed 300, first place is guaranteed 2900.
Stacks are as follows.
1. 800,000 -Villain
2. 680,000 - You
3. 240,000
4. 200,000
5. 150,000
6. 145,000
7. 120,000
Blinds are 5K/10K
You have KsTs villain has 22 on a QsJs4h board. 80K in the pot. Villain ships it and shows you his cards face.
What do you do? Why?
What are your thoughts on the topic? Why?
For those of you that will troll this question, please take time to consider it in your own time after you are done trolling and hopefully come back and express your thoughts.
Thank you
I appreciate the relevance of outs (to an extent) when (semi)bluffing but to say I have an X% chance of winning due to my X outs is beyond inaccurate and inconsistent.
Poker is a game of imperfect information. Counting outs assumes perfect information.
Deducting two in case you're double counting is questionable because double counting itself is another fallacy so you're essentially strengthening the reasoning for your fallacy based on principals of another fallacy.
My reasoning for this being a fallacy is strengthened by the fact that all decisions (in an mtt/mtsng) are influenced by either ICM/$EV/CEV/FUTURE CEV so regardless of the number of outs you have if the decision is not favoured by the above considerations then the play is incorrect.
Allow me to demonstrate.
We are 7 handed at a final table.
7th place is guaranteed 300, first place is guaranteed 2900.
Stacks are as follows.
1. 800,000 -Villain
2. 680,000 - You
3. 240,000
4. 200,000
5. 150,000
6. 145,000
7. 120,000
Blinds are 5K/10K
You have KsTs villain has 22 on a QsJs4h board. 80K in the pot. Villain ships it and shows you his cards face.
What do you do? Why?
What are your thoughts on the topic? Why?
For those of you that will troll this question, please take time to consider it in your own time after you are done trolling and hopefully come back and express your thoughts.
Thank you