Counting Outs

M

meowCC

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Situation:
Pre Flop:
(pot: 1.75 BB) Hero has A A

Flop: (10.52 BB, 2 players) 9 4 A

Turn: (10.52 BB, 2 players) 8

River: (10.52 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero shows A A (Full House, Aces full of Nines)
(Pre 86%, Flop 72%, Turn 23%)
BTN shows Q K (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 14%, Flop 28%, Turn 77%)
Hero wins 10.52 BB


Turn:

999,444,888,A = 10 Outs = 21% (?)

What am i missing?

Edit: exact % =
Odds of You Winning 22.53%
Opponent 77.47%
 
Last edited:
F

FailX21

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That's weird. CC odds calculator gives 22.24%, while 10 outs should give 21.74% ... I'm curious too ^^

Edit : Just noticed the odds of winning changes in fonction of the position and the number of players on the table ... (on the CC odds calculator at least). I wonder why ...
 
kratos

kratos

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I think that here you have 10 outs.The flop is in favor of your cards.
 
cskwin

cskwin

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Interesting flop and good that you win with AA. most cases for me its a loose round with me holding AA. Lucky with River.
in most cases it is confusing with odd calculation. when we follow the book we end up loosing and when we follow out gut we win,. it is funny.
 
M

meowCC

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Look at the Attachment; it's the cc calculator

22.63 %



I see 10 outs with 44 cards whose identity is unknown which gets me 22.73%, not 22.53%. I checked it here.
Thanks, that was the answer i was looking for.
 

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F

fastjob

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the probability is evaluated as BTN already has on the Q ♦ K ♠ (Flush, Ace High) turn and although you have 10 outs - a large part of your outs may be in the offhand and not happen.
 
mtl mile end

mtl mile end

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I see 10 outs with 44 cards whose identity is unknown which gets me 22.73%, not 22.53%. I checked it here. https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem

This is obviously, mathematically correct to four significant figures.

Look at the Attachment; it's the cc calculator

22.63 %



Thanks, that was the answer i was looking for.

In this case, the CC calculator is wrong (again, as it often is) by .10 %.


What is the OP about? The OP shows 23% equity which is also correct because it appears that the calculator used has rounded to the nearest full percentage point. It is supported by all calculations (correct or not) of 22.53%, 22.63%, and 22.73%.


21% and 21.7% are simply incorrectly calculated and do not round to a lesser accurate, correct number.


.1000.
 
Last edited:
F

fastjob

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Situation:
Pre Flop:
(pot: 1.75 BB) Hero has A A

Flop: (10.52 BB, 2 players) 9 4 A

Turn: (10.52 BB, 2 players) 8

River: (10.52 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero shows A A (Full House, Aces full of Nines)
(Pre 86%, Flop 72%, Turn 23%)
BTN shows Q K (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 14%, Flop 28%, Turn 77%)
Hero wins 10.52 BB


Turn:

999,444,888,A = 10 Outs = 21% (?)

What am i missing?

Edit: exact % =
Odds of You Winning 22.53%
Opponent 77.47%
who would drop a flush hand in this situation still on the turn?
 
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