This is a discussion on Count Your Outs!! within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; Hello, most good poker players obviously know how to figure out their pot odds to help decide weather to call or fold. i just wanted 


#1




Count Your Outs!!
Hello, most good poker players obviously know how to figure out their pot odds to help decide weather to call or fold. i just wanted to help out anyone that doesn't know how to find out the percentage of improving your hand to hopefully win the hand in progress.
To simply put it. after the flop, you multiply your outs by 4 to calculate your percentage of improving your hand by the river. after the turn, you multiply your outs by 2 to calculate your new percentage. Example: Hero: 7d8c Villain: AsKd Board: 5c 6s Ad Right now we have an open ended straight draw. leaving us with 8 outs. (Four 4's and Four 9's) 8x4 = 32% Say we miss the turn.. now we multiply our 8 outs by 2 leaving us with a 16% chance to improve by river. MAKE SURE YOU ARE GETTING THE CORRECT POT ODDS TO MAKE THE CALL!! (unless you have implied odds, i'll make a thread on that later) 
#4




The 42 is a very simple concept to follow, providing you are happy with your chances of winning being expressed in percentage terms. Being an old horse betting man I am used to dealing with straight odds, so eight outs convert to 39/8 or 5/1, or as near as makes no difference.

#5




Quote:
When it comes to the rule of 2 and 4, you will rarely ever multiply by 4. The only times you would multiply by 4 are: When there is no more betting to done after the flop and you're guaranteed to see the turn and river. For example, your opponent is all in on the flop and can no longer bet after. Stacks are very deep and you're getting good implied odds. Otherwise, if there is the possibility of future bets, you would multiply by 2 for each street. So, lets say you had 8 outs for an OESD, you would: Multiply 8 x 2 for the floptoturn. Multiply 8 x 2 for the turntoriver. TL;DR Version: Multiply by 2 for each street if there is the possibility of future bets. Multiply by 4 if there are no more bets to be made and you are guaranteed to see the turn and river. 
#6




re: Poker & Count Your Outs!!
Quote:

#7




Quote:
You have 8 outs and call a flopbet...now if you don't hit the turn you maybe still have 8 outs but might be forced to fold to a turnbet. As we actually don't know what our opponent has, our number of outs might decrease on the turn. 
#8




Quote:

#9




Just been reading and reading lol honestly feel the knowledge of outs and pot odds plus implied odds is crucial in upping my game. At the same time I kinda feel now like I haven't even actually played poker lol. On average how long would you say it took for you to fully understand and be quick at working out your outs and odds? As I haven't done it before I don't feel I'm fast but is something I'm going to be doing and studying.

#10




There is a lot of questions to answer that I'll get to later on if no one else replies to them.
The importance of counting your outs to get your hand odds (or the odds of your out hitting to improve your hand) is relative to the pot odds you are getting. Basically, if the pot odds are greater than your hand odds, it's a profitable call. And if the pot odds are worse than the hand odds, you'll lose money in the long run if you call and it's better to fold. So, if pot odds are giving you 5:1 on the floptoturn and your hand odds are 4:1, call. If the pot odds are 2.5:1 on the floptoturn and your hand odds are 4:1, fold. As for your outs, you always count your clean outs. Since you don't know what your opponents have, you don't care about that. So, if you're on a nut flush draw, you always count 9 outs unless you know otherwise. For example, one of your flush cards was exposed. 
#11




Mathematics is a key fundamental in Poker I understand 'outs' and 'pot odds' and I probably use them more sub consciously than consciously... That means I don't really pay too much attention to precise detail and calculations but sub consciously I probably am making decisions on 'odds' or 'outs' without really thinking too much about it...
If Poker was pure maths then Poker Bots would have destroyed online poker... Thankfully, Bots are no better at reading bluffs than most of us and will gracefully fold if the pot odds are not good I do agree with your post tho It is a nice easy formula that is an essential for any poker player to understand and use... 
#12




re: Poker & Count Your Outs!!
Yeah for sure there is no read and do this and you'll win money. There is more to poker than life lol. I've really fallen in love with the game and how complex it is has a lot to do with that. I'm going to study more so I'm fast at working my outs and pot odds. I have like you been doing it but not as exact to have a %. For example ill try work out my players range and question what they'll have depending on the flop and action they'll take. Now I'd like to figure out my out odds and pot odds as well as imagine theirs with hands ill put them on. I just find it interesting to use the same math when like I said if your on a 9 player table with people folding and the flop gives you a flush draw, you can guess it's probably a lower % as someone's bound to have had cards of that suit. I think though I'm probably thinking too much and just need to get to grips with the basics such as working out my outs and pot odds and knowing what action to take. That with information such as players range and position I think will least be steps in the right direction for improving my game.
I find it interesting though and will enjoy studying about the game and hopefully will improve. 
#13




Quote:

#14




Quote:
Do you think a lot of people just use programs to do the information for them? if so would you say being fast with this knowledge would give a better age more so with live games? Have only been casino once I'm ashamed to say lol but will be returning for sure as it was a wicked day out. 
#15




I like players who will use %’s the 4 and 2 rule instead of the 47 unseen cards on flop and 46 unseen cards on the turn the only information that is empirical are the two cards we hold and the three on the flop, then the turn, and the river. When a player uses %’s instead of odds of hitting their hand they are not using the true odds of hitting a hand against the game. For example, 9 flush draw outs on the flop, 9 into 47 is over 51 odds of hitting the flush on the turn and 9 into 46 on the turn to hit the flush on the river, and the odds again are over 51. Over 10,000 hands this draw will only hit roughly 20% of the time or lose 8,000 times over the long run if the %’s run true for 10,000 hands.
So, chasing the flush with the thought of hitting roughly 36% chance is only correct because of the % of any hand pre flop of completing by the river, a hand hitting a straight or flush in the game, but playing the draw in a vacuum the player chases incorrectly because of what the %’s tell them instead of the true odds of hitting tell them over the long run. The % is used because of how easy it is to figure out the % quickly in the moment but I personally adhere to odds to figure my chances of hitting my hand, when being card dependent of hitting my hand; instead of the %’s this helps with chasing incorrectly. 
#16




Quote:

#17




When you are talking odds over 10,000 situations of drawing to the flush. 51 is the true odds not the %'s, because of the % that a flush can happen in each hand but unless you play your hand in a vacuum the odds are the odds over the long run depends on how you want to play your hands and what you observe. The flush could come 20 times in a row but miss the next 300 times as an example the % can be skewed but not the odds. So, playing a negative situation until the flush hits over time at 36% could cost more money in the short term and simulate gambling more than the reality of 51 over the long run and observing the odds and picking the best spots on experience of situations. Just my personal preference. Glad to meet you and hoping that your game has success.

#18




re: Poker & Count Your Outs!!
Quote:
When using your method, you need to subract by 1. So, 479=5.22. 5.221=4.22. This converts to 4.22:1. This is the true ratio. With that said, there is nothing wrong with using percentage or ratio format to calculate your outs. Online, I use ratios because I have an odds chart I can refer to if needed. Live, I use the rule of 2 and 4 to get the percent chances of my card hitting in relation to what percent the pot is giving me to call. So, if I have a flush draw, my rough chance of hitting on the turn is 18%. So, if my opponent bets $15 into a pot of $30, making the pot $45. We need to call $15 to win a pot of $60 ($45+$15). $15 is 25% of $60. Since the % chance of my hand hitting is worse than what the pot odds % is giving me, it's a fold. 
#19




The game of poker is full of successes, bad beats, and flat out stupid plays. In some sort of contorted and twisted justification, many poker players will call bets while on huge draws and go all in with no less than top pair, many times with a mediocre kicker. Poker players that play using this style of “hyperaggression” generally do not have any idea of expected value, much less what it means in terms of being a winning player or losing player.
For those of you that are unfamiliar with expected value or EV for short, it is a positive or negative outcome of a play or strategy if used consistently over the long haul. Since poker is a lifelong session, this is a very important concept to understand and use while you are playing poker. For example, when I am facing a bet of $125.00 and the pot contains $375.00, the pot is offering my hand 31 to make the call. When I know the odds I need are 5:2:1 am I making the correct call? Should you make the call here? Disregarding any read you may have on the player, let’s decide solely on the math alone. First, you need to figure out your outs. You have two clubs in your hand and there are 2 on the flop. So when you figure out your “outs,” you know that only 4 are missing out of a possible 13. So, you have 9 cards out of a 47 unseen cards that can still help you. This would give you odds of 47:9 or when simplified, 5.2:1. This tells you that approximately every 6 times you try the exact same hand you will lose a little over 5 times and win once. This is where expected value comes in. Sometimes you can make this call and in the long run, it is profitable while other times it will not be. How do you decide? Well, you know that your odds to complete your hand are 5.2:1. To call the bet it will cost you $125 with a return of $375 should you win. When put into odds it will look like $375:$125 or when simplified, 3:1. Now knowing your odds and pot odds, you can now compare them to see if calling here is profitable over time. What you will want to do is compare your odds: 5.2:1 vs. 3:1, and take the amount of times that you will lose (5.2 times) and multiply that by how much it costs to call. Example: Your equation would look like this: 5.2 * $125 = $650. Now, you will want to compare that with the amount that is in the pot for the one time that you will win: $650 vs. $375. For every $650 that you lose, you will win $375. Or shown as expected value, you will have a net loss of $275 which makes this call wrong and gives you negative expected value or EV. Example: When the pot offers us 41 the math looks like this: when you make a bet of $125.00 into a pot of $500.00 and you win 1 time of $500.00 and lose 5 times of one single bet of $125.00 that cost you $650.00 over the other 5 times that lose, of this situation, the expected value is a net loss of $150.00 over the long haul. What would make this call correct? Well, to make things super easy so you do not have to bring out a pen and pad every time you are faced with this decision it is easier to remember that you want the odds to hit your hand better than the pot odds that you are receiving. So for example, this play would be profitable if your pot odds were 6:1 instead of 3:1 or 4:1. Assume that there is $725 in the pot and you only need to call $125 to win it. So if you take the 5.2 times that you will lose and multiple it by the $125 that it will take to call, you will lose $650. However, the one time that you will win, you will win $725 which gives you a positive expected value of $75 ($725$650 = $75). Now, expected value is only one of a few things to keep in mind when making a decision regarding your play. You will want to consider other factors such as reads on your opponents and where you may be in the tournament to make a more educated decision. It is also important to note that in the example of a positive expected value (+EV), that if you make the call there it is still possible to miss the flush and lose. Just remember that over time, the odds are in your favor of winning which is why it is expected value, and not guaranteed value. I do not need a rough estimation because I know for sure what the odds are in every situation, and correcting my math and using what you call the true odds of 4.22:1. This ratio is still a losing formula in the long run by manipulating the math makes my case for me of why I play with other people’s money. Your manipulation of the math is just a justification to play against the odds and call without following the true odds of the game. That is why I laugh at the 2 and 4 rule or any other manipulation of math to skew the numbers against the true odds that will not be profitable over the long run. You can put kittens in the oven but that does not make them muffins. 
#21




Quote:
I see where you're making the error in your hand odds. For a flush draw, you're taking 47remaining cards/9outs, giving you 5.22. For simplicity, lets round it down to 5. Now, you're taking this 5 and making it to the ratio of 5:1, which is incorrect. The ratio is 4:1 or out of 5 attempts = 4 (miss) + 1(hits). For further proof, if we take 9(outs)/47(remaining cards) we get 19% or 20% for simplicity. 100/20 = 5. This then converts to 4:1 for the reasons given above. However, a simpler and much quicker way would be to use the rule of 2 + 1. So, with a flush draw your calculation would be: 9 (outs) x 2 + 1 = 19%. IIRC, the 2x +1 rule is for all outs 8+. So, if you have 10 outs, you have 21% chance of hitting on the floptoturn. With all this said, your method isn't 100% wrong, your conversion to ratio is just a bit off. All you have to do is 1 from the [remaining cards/outs] to get the ratio. So, 47 remaining/15 outs = 3.13  1 = 2.13:1 