correct formula for pot odds.

Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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Just checking that I am correct here.

I have always calculated pot odds as (Size of Pot) / (Cost of Call)

meaning that if the pot is 200 and the call costs 50 you are getting 4:1 pot odds.

however I have read a few artices and seen iti n a few books where its calculated as

(Size of Pot) + (Cost of Call) / (Cost of Call)

which is the same as

1+ {(Size of Pot) / (Cost of Call)}

meaning that if the pot is 200 and the cost of the call is 50 then the pot odds are 5:1 (because once you call the pot gets bigger)

Am I correct in thinking that the first method is the one to use?
 
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islandtime2

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I found I prefer Phil Gorden's definitions best and he says 5:1 is the better way to treat it. The overriding concept is to think that once you bet that $50 it is no longer your money and now belongs to the pot to be won. So the pot to be won = (Size of Pot) + (Cost of Call) which makes the pot odds = 5:1 instead of 4:1.

He then defines Break Even Percentage or the % of time that you need to win a hand, in relation to the money in the pot, to make a call worthwhile and your BEP then = 1/(pot odds + 1) x 100 or for your example 1/(5+1) * 100 = 17%. Then by the rule of 4 and 2 you know you need at least 4 outs on the flop (=16% but close enough)) and and least 8 outs on the turn (16%) to justify a call. I have found using Phil's pot odds/bep/rule of 4&2 in combination easy to use at the table (live or online) to justify calls, and found it seems to be effective in limiting my calls to a reasonable % that work out.
 
ChuckTs

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What's mixing you up is the definition of "the pot".

If there's 200 in the pot, then your opponent bets 50, it means the pot is now 250, and your odds are 250:50, or 5:1. The other definition is including the 50 in that 200, hence it would be 200:50 or 4:1.
 
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cuffslurp

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If you want to work with percentages, like Phil Gordon does, you need to include your bet into the pot. Otherwise, it would be wrong to do so.

% basically means "this was multiplied by 100", e.g.

Code:
8 outs = 8 x 2 = 16% (rule of 2)

       16       1
16% = ----- = ------
       100     6,25

If you want to convert percentages to odds, it would be wrong to say 8 outs means you've got odds of 6,25 to 1. You have to substract 1, e.g.

Code:
6,25 - 1 = 5,25

It is, however, counterproductive to use Gordon's rule of 2 and 4, and convert the percentages to odds. You just want to make sure, in this example, your bet does not exceed 16% of the pot (including your bet).
 
RogueRivered

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In this case, the pot would be $250, but your $50 call is what you have to put up to win $200, so the odds are 4:1. In horseracing 1:1 odds means you risk 1 to win 1, in other words, you double your money if you win.
 
katymaty

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to win 200 and bet/call 50 pot odds are 4/1.
5 outcomes 4 bad 1 good therefore 4/1

To bet on a roll of a dice there are 6 outcomes the odds aren't 6/1 but 5/1 otherwise you bet on every number and win every time if odds are 6/1:eek:
 
dg1267

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however I have read a few artices and seen iti n a few books where its calculated as

(Size of Pot) + (Cost of Call) / (Cost of Call)

which is the same as

1+ {(Size of Pot) / (Cost of Call)}

meaning that if the pot is 200 and the cost of the call is 50 then the pot odds are 5:1 (because once you call the pot gets bigger)

Am I correct in thinking that the first method is the one to use?

I think this one will get you into a little more trouble than it's worth. Even though we want to look for better odds, our best bet is to look at the odds on the worst side of things.

What I mean is if you are getting either 4:1 or 5:1 on the same call and you took it over a 1K hand sample, you are going to be better off taking the 4:1 odds over the 5:1 odds side of the issue.
 
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channing73ny

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interesting

thx for the info i always thought something totaly different so thx for letting me know ill try this in my calculations for futue games instead of just thing of it as geting some 1 po for catching now i canm tell them i had pot odds lol gl to all
 
Poker Orifice

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badass... I'm guessing you're playing in micro buy-ins at pokerstars. Maybe it has something to do with their marketing campaign.

Getting the right odds on the flop to make the call...... Now work in the implied odds.... how much of their stack are you going to grab if you make your hand? Maybe this is why some donks call me with gutters on the flop??? lol
 
dvd-GT

dvd-GT

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To look at this in a different way is intresting and definative, if you bet 50 four times and win 250 one time you are 50 in profit, if you bet 50 five times and win 250 once you break even.
Stu i thought you were the master of stats, are you setting quiz questions and is there a prize?
 
left52side

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Well I use the first method myself.
That is the way I have always understood pot odds.
 
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Robert O

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Pot odds & semantics

Reply to old thread...

Rather than 50 bet and 200 pot let's round:

Pot Bet Odds to-1 a.k.a. break even as pct
100 100 1:1 1-in-2 1/2 .50
400 100 4:1 1-in-5 1/5 .20

You can express odds as "to-1" or as "in-1". Even money is 1-to-1, 1:1, 1-in-2, 1/2, .5 and 50%. Your example 200 pot 50 call equals 4:1. Despite being semantically invalid and mathematically horrifying, it's not surprising so many misuse 5:1.

(Pot+call)/call correctly yields in-1 and, hence, percentage values, but for me an intuitive view is more useful. Play around with Excel if that's your thing; see attachment. In any case, your mileage may vary.

Learn even money and 2:1 first, then the rest will become evident. 1:1 is 1-in-2; 1-in-1 equals 100%, aka The Nuts. Plainly 1:1 is not 100%, so 2:1 is not 50% and 4:1 is not .25.

To make money on a 100 bet to win a 100 pot, you must have a hand with better than a 50% chance to win. By extension... you the hero have 9h8h on a 7h 6h Ac flop: 4 tens, 4 fives and 9 hearts (minus Th and 5h -- don't double-count) = 15 outs*
By the Rule of Four and Two, 15 x 4 yields a roughly 60% chance of hitting your card on the turn or river. If your pot odds are 50:50, take em IF you believe you'll see both the turn and river. If you expect to see just one more card, as is always the case on the turn, multiply by 2 instead of 4. I.e., 15 outs on the turn = 30% chance of hitting your card on the river, or between 2- and 3-to-1.

Quiz: with a 60% chance of making your hand, what's your break even bet if the pot is 100? Start by considering whether the answer is greater or less than 100.

FWIW in some locales blackjack table odds are expressed in-1 rather than to-1; caveat emptor. Glad you asked?

*beware Reverse Implied Odds, a topic for another day

 
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