Considering cards to hit board of recent past hands????

snklzona

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Just curious to see if others consider recently flopped/turned/rivered
cards in the decision making process of whether to play their current
hand....
 
N

nkrijeka

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I've found that I'm more likely to limp with Ax if there hasn't been an ace on the board in a few hands.
 
dj11

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Because of a (supposedly) random deal, we should not use such info as recent board cards in our decision making process. However, Nature Abhors a vacuum, and Statistics abhors gaps in expected results.

I have to admit that I sometimes let such info in and act unpredictably.:confused:
 
OzExorcist

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Nope, and you shouldn't either. Remember it's unlucky to be superstitious.
 
jesseg

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You have absolutely no reason to do so whatsoever, and it can only lead to playing in sub-optimal ways. The previous deals do not affect the probabilities on the current deal in any way, shape or form.
 
WVHillbilly

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Finding patterns in randomness. The human brain excels at it.
 
dj11

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You have absolutely no reason to do so whatsoever, and it can only lead to playing in sub-optimal ways. The previous deals do not affect the probabilities on the current deal in any way, shape or form.

Peculiar. If we take single individual hands from a vacuum, this is correct. But we all know that over time, things tend to find the true pattern of that randomness, and in that sense the randomness really is not so random. And since we play sessions of multiple hands, usually hundreds of hands and sometimes thousands of hands, we will get a feel for how the cards are running according to the expected patterns.

In a perfect world, this would explain run bad or run good. How we interpret what we perceive is happening in the randomness of the numbers.
 
Kahntrutahn

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You have absolutely no reason to do so whatsoever, and it can only lead to playing in sub-optimal ways. The previous deals do not affect the probabilities on the current deal in any way, shape or form.

Finding patterns in randomness. The human brain excels at it.

The aforementioned +1. Below.... nope :(

Peculiar. If we take single individual hands from a vacuum, this is correct. But we all know that over time, things tend to find the true pattern of that randomness, and in that sense the randomness really is not so random. And since we play sessions of multiple hands, usually hundreds of hands and sometimes thousands of hands, we will get a feel for how the cards are running according to the expected patterns.

In a perfect world, this would explain run bad or run good. How we interpret what we perceive is happening in the randomness of the numbers.


There is a guy I learned a lot from when I started playing poker a decade ago. He posted a lot at 2+2 in the High Stakes LHE forum where I was also an active member of the community. His name was Nate Silver.

Nate Silver has since gone on from crushing poker to developing statistical models for baseball. He also predicted 49 of 50 states in last years election. He wrote a book called "The Signal and The Noise" <-- I highly recommend reading said book. It may help you better understand the fallacy of what you have perceived.
 
Kenzie 96

Kenzie 96

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I try not to waste too much time looking for excuses to make -ev plays.
 
snklzona

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It would never be much weight of my decision to fold or call at most maybe
5% and I really have only used it when considering calling with small pairs...
Thank you all for the responses...gl on the felt every1 !
 
Rappyness

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Live I really dont but online sometime I am superticious! I sometimes just call with rags because of what the board in the previous games were. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesnt. I like to take that chance sometimes though so its all up to you.
 
fletchdad

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If you want to give past cards credit for influencing cards still to come, then you want to give past coins flips credit for influencing whether or not a heads or tails will come now.

To clarify, the past does not exist in this situation. What was, was, and is not now. What will come, will come, and is not in anyway interested in what was.


FWIW, I walk under ladders, do what I want on Friday the 13th, cross over the path of a black cat, dont throw salt over my shoulder if I spill it, and a whole bunch of other shit, and I have a great life.


"Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesnt" Yes, and that is the reason to NOT make a decision based on previous action as far as cards you have seen go..... Most everything in poker will work "sometimes" but that is no reason to use that thinking as a form of "strategy"
 
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