re: Poker & Concepts I have learned from CC.
Originally Posted by Sharesol
...Why: Because I know that my only true out is a 10. I'm not going to do the math (lazy) but it's about a 10% chance?
I have something that will help you approximate the odds
when OTB (over the board). You need a 10, which is 4 outs, to win. If you only have one card to come, that is close 4 outs divided by 50 cards, or 8%, which equals 4 outs times 2. If you have two cards to come, multiply by 2 again, which gives you about 16% to make your straight. IOW, multiply your number of outs times two times the number of cards to come (maximum of 2). Most times this will get you within 2% of the real number.
I did a quick calculation and, if I did my math right (and that's a mighty big IF), your actual chances of making the straight (with no information about the your opp's cards) were 1 - (43C2)/(47C2) = 16.5% (very close to the approximation).
I'm curious why you didn't count A and K as outs? I would have given you 10 outs (A, K, and T) and approx. 40%.