Clarification on Pre-flop strategy article

The1AceJack

The1AceJack

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Hey guys,

I've been playing online poker pretty actively this past week. Been placing in freerolls on wsop and BetOnline, while also playing low stakes on Bovada.

Love the articles on cards chat. Reading the one on pre-flop concepts and I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around one concept:

In reference to raising AA ~ "Look here: 3 times out of 10, you will win 20 bets (the big blind + your raise), and 7 times out of 10, you will lose 2 bets (your raise). A win of 60 bets, and a loss of 14. That's a net win of 46 bets! That's HUGE!"

( Full article here: https://www.cardschat.com/preflop-concepts.php )

Now, I understand the logic of raising AA, as it has aprox 30% chance of being a winning hand every time you get it (1-in-3 odds) So 3 out of 10 and 7 out of 10 makes sense...

... what I don't understand is how on the 3/10ths of the time you win, you win 20 bets and on the 7 of 10, you only lose 2.

Does this have something to do with position? Seeing as he references the big blind...

Or does this have something to do with a "long-term" picture -- estimating that a good player will have so many "rounds" on the button, so many chances to play the AA, etc.

I'm really not sure. So, any clarification on the total win/lose of these bets would be very helpful. Thanks!
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Nah the article is mangled and makes no sense. The point is not too hard, idea being that you raise your equity advantage while you have it.
 
The1AceJack

The1AceJack

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OK.... I understand the idea of raising pre-flop while you have good equity -- but, are you saying there's no sense to be made out of the "net win" of your bets? I don't get it...
 
C

cotta777

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Imo
the best way to measure your win rate - +EV however you look at it.

hand equity + fold equity + card quantity.

if your win rate was 30% x 2/3 opponents and 74% against one. Then the hands you win would be getting 2/3x the value but losing more frequently v's 2 villains. Value against one opponent would be less but winning frequency would be higher.

I know Im going slightly off, but conversely I would say the complex math is not too important behind it as long as you are isolating your hands when you need too and knowing when to disguise Aces, gain value when you should be, you will be making the right amount +EV from your hand
 
The1AceJack

The1AceJack

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Yikes... I used to fancy myself intelligent, and then I started studying poker.

So, firstly, the author in the original article was talking about win-rate... that makes sense... the idea of how you make more money when you lose more bets, however, still eludes me...

I think I understand you 3rd paragraph, Cotta -- basically, it seems, I have better odds of beating 1 person (winning) - but will gain less value($) against him; and vice-versa in the 2 person scenario.

Like, when I have a good pocket hand, like QQ, I know my best bet is to raise pre-flop, and drop more opponents... so that when an A comes up on the flop, the dude holding A4o hopefully already folded when I raised pre-flop.

And, yeah, the articles on this site reference a lot of hard to follow mathematical equations; and I'm pretty math nerdy... but, I guess, I'm happy to know that I'm not the only one confused by / disregarding them.
 
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