Originally Posted by ChuckTs
Just watching this again...
ATs hand at ~20 min or so on left table.
Thoughts about check-raising the river and turning our hand into a bluff?
You know, that's not a terrible idea. At first, I was entirely against it because I thought there was just no chance that it could be profitable, but...
There are 24 combos of aces that beat us: AK, AQ and AJ. And we split with AT (4 combos). All other hands are inconsequential because he either has us crushed (and will never fold) or he has a bluff (and we would have beaten him anyway).
If he always folds AT and AJ, never folds AK and folds AQ half the time, he calls 12 times and folds 14 times. EV depends on raise size, but he bets $34 into a $47 pot, and let's say that we make it $90. Then we're risking $90 to win $81, and we need to be successful 52% of the time, and his fold% will be just below 54%.
Edit: Scratch that. In this particular spot, the odds
are actually against us, because in 4 of those times, we're not risking $90 to win $81, but risking $90 to win $40 (the times he has AT). Still - close! /edit.
So yeah, it's super thin. It depends sooo much on how likely he is to fold AJ, but... Let me put it this way, if we had A8s instead of ATs, and he's as likely to bet A9s on this river as he is AK, then check/raising the river is definitely EV (assuming he CAN fold top pair to a river check/raise).
Solid thinking, Taylor. I think too many people completely overlook these spots (and we were both guilty of it in the video).