Calling cheap even though you are sure your gonna lose?

Hi I have just been in a hand and the pot was at 400+ chips and I had missed my straight but hit top pair and villian needs Q 10 to hit their straight and bets 85 chips, I have to call this right? Even if I know im beat and i was 95% sure?

Sorry if this is a simple question but Im trying to actually learn the game a new instead of playing TP and folding to much.

85=18% of 485 the 400 in the pot plus the 85 bet, if you know that you will win 20% of the time this is a break even call, less than 20% it is a loser more than than 20% it is a winner. Sounds like you made a bad call if you were 95% sure you were behind.

FYI - I would have probably called.

How did you derive the 95%. Was it a gut instict call or did you actually calculate his ranges and come up with that #.

In a tourney i find it tough to calculate people's ranges (especially cause i multi table 4-6 tourneys) so probably would go with my gut (also based on tendencies of oppt - if you know them) and the impact to my stack as well as my perception of what he thinks I would do.

Not knowing that much about your situation I would probably have folded if i put this player as a tight player incapable of any tricky moves or someone who would bet with anything that you would have beat.

There is so much to think about in these cases. i guess that is what makes poker such a great game (except when someone sucks out on u:smile: )

Well it was the 15/30 blind level and he was content to check the bets until he raised the last street.

The fact he raise 85 chips made me think he was just getting what little value he could out of the pot, he was giving me good odds right?

There was only two sets of cards that could have beat me, the reason for asking is that i had to call just 85 chips and there was a small chance I got it wrong. I guess just trust my instincts more but in the long run should I always fold or pay him of cheap on the off chance I win?

If there were only 2 sets of cards that could beat you, you have to be ahead WAY more than 5% of the time (in fact with the 3rd nuts a raise was likely in order). Are you sure you weren't just fearing the worst and then when you actually saw it you said something like "I knew it". That happens alot. People are actually too quick to put people on the top of their range or that one specific hand that beats them. Usually what happens here is that you call the bet, win the hand, and think wow I'm glad he didn't have x. Don't allow your fears to get in the way of your hand reading abilities.

Mr McCluskey said:

Well it was the 15/30 blind level and he was content to check the bets until he raised the last street.

The fact he raise 85 chips made me think he was just getting what little value he could out of the pot, he was giving me good odds right?

There was only two sets of cards that could have beat me, the reason for asking is that i had to call just 85 chips and there was a small chance I got it wrong. I guess just trust my instincts more but in the long run should I always fold or pay him of cheap on the off chance I win?

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Only two sets of cards that beat you and your questionning a call?? 95% to lose????

To be more general: If you are "sure" you're going to lose, you should never call. The thing is, most of the time you think you're sure, you aren't actually sure.

Van and Steveg have nailed it, pretty much.

This is a math problem You're being asked to call for 18% of the pot - if your opponent would bluff this at least 18% of the time, it's break even or better to call.

So in this case, if you're certain that you're beat 95% of the time, you're not getting the right odds and you have to fold. Question is though, are you really beat 95% of the time?

Thanks for the reply all, in response I had a pair of jacks from the flop and he needed a Q 10 or a 7 10 to win (of course he could have Pockets but I knew he would have bet more). Thinking back its my own fault for letting get that far although at the levels I play people chase till the death. Usally I would fold but I am just learning some poker concepts such as pot odds and implied odds and wanted to clarify things on calling when you think or are pretty sure you are beat but have to pay out a little of your stack to call.

Baically I am trying to overhaul my game, I have been playing for money for around 10 months and have moderate sucsess but want to take my game to the next level. So Ill prob be posting some strange questions next few weeks.

Sounds like your're a bit gutted at letting him draw out too cheaply...but top pair can sometimes be enough!. I'm rarely 95% sure of anything(poker or otherwise)so I would call. I know how ya feel at the micro stakes with guys chasing stupid draws cause the pot values are too low to hurt. If you really think he's drawing & he gets it...stay calm, fold it down..it's ok plenty more hands out there. Most of the time just make those chasers chase. In the long run you'll come out ahead.