Calculating odds in real time, it's it easier said than done?

Z_T

Z_T

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 10, 2014
Total posts
26
Chips
0
I'm taking this thing step by step, I've learned how to not play just any hand even A-K/AA etc and even if I have a top pair (depending on how high it is) now I'm trying to get this pot odd/ outs thing down.

I know it suppose to help determine if it's worth it to play a hand or not but I'm having a hard time doing it in real time (I fear having to do it in turbo:eek: )

So if you all don't mind, tell me how YOU go about doing it in live games againts multiple players.

Thanks.
 
K

kurz

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 24, 2014
Total posts
31
Chips
0
Hello!

I am just remembering the basic odds for flush, straight etc...

And for the beginning cards I have lists I can read during the game.
 
dj11

dj11

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 9, 2006
Total posts
23,189
Awards
9
Chips
0
In the beginning it is mostly a matter of rote learning. Google 'basic poker odds', pick one, print charts and refer to them often during 1 months worth of sessions. You may be a faster learner, but just having it handy AND referring to it often is about all anyone needs to get the basics down. You might do the same thing with more advanced odds. Again, learning it by rote is not a bad thing. It is how we all learn to wipe our butts. Except of course any hoity toity types who grew up using a bidet.

The problem with most players is that they will seldom actually do the simple things to improve their understanding of the game.
 
dealio96

dealio96

The LAG Monkeys
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 3, 2013
Total posts
7,960
Awards
5
Chips
0
I'm taking this thing step by step, I've learned how to not play just any hand even A-K/AA etc and even if I have a top pair (depending on how high it is) now I'm trying to get this pot odd/ outs thing down.

I know it suppose to help determine if it's worth it to play a hand or not but I'm having a hard time doing it in real time (I fear having to do it in turbo:eek: )

So if you all don't mind, tell me how YOU go about doing it in live games againts multiple players.

Thanks.

The more you study pot odds, equity, ranges etc. The more naturally you will utilize these strategies, while in real time.
 
K

kurz

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 24, 2014
Total posts
31
Chips
0
poker odds

Can anyone recommend a good book or good Webpage about poker Odds?
 
Blu2323

Blu2323

Rising Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 23, 2014
Total posts
23
Chips
0
Very true...don't spend the money to get a book for something you can get for free online. Not saying to pirate anything lol but there is a lot of free content out there. Save the moneys for that sit-N-go you wanted to play.
 
JPoling

JPoling

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
May 13, 2014
Total posts
756
Chips
0
On the flop. Count how many outs I have that I think will improve my hand. Multiply that by 4. Roughly that is about the percentage I will hit my cards. On the turn. Take my outs. Multiply it by 2. That is roughly the percentage I will hit on river.
 
Blu2323

Blu2323

Rising Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 23, 2014
Total posts
23
Chips
0
I agree with using the rule of 4 as a quick guide to find out your odds. Its exactly as JPoling put it. You will become faster and faster at this with practice. But remember its a quick reference to your poker odds and its not 100% dead accurate. But its not that far off I think its only off by a few % nothing to shake a stick at. If you want more info on it just Google Hold'em Rule of 4. When I don't have a HUD running i use this all the time.
 
moses59

moses59

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 26, 2014
Total posts
38
Chips
0
this is some really good info thank you all for this
 
B

Ben_Dover

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 4, 2008
Total posts
34
Chips
0
Don't be fooled - in "real-time" it's not so simple. Even if you memorized or can calculate the rule of 2 or 4 at lightening speed that gives you a PERCENTAGE. What are you going to do with a PERCENTAGE?

As the pot-odds-for-dummies spells out, the typical pot-odds technique involves ADDING up all chips in the pot and sprayed around the table and DIVIDE by the bet to give an X-to-1. How does this "X-to-1" relate to the PERCENTAGE from the rule of 2-4?

It doesn't. At least not in any way I've found useful in real-time.

Take an example: post-flop, $85 pot, $20 open bet, $20 raise to $40 in front of me. I've got 9 outs. From purely pot-odds break-even point of view, is this a profitable call?

My outs tell me 18% or 36% chance for rule of 2-4, (or I happen to know 19.1% and 34.97% but big deal). That PERCENTAGE doesn't help me make the call. So what good is the rule of 2-4?

As pot-odds-for-dummies and most pot odds sites explain, I better try the math route. Please calculate below at lightening speed:

$85 + $20 + $40 = $145. Divide $145/$40.

Can you do all of this quickly?

I can't. Not without annoying my pals. Especially after a few beers.

Let's hope you could figure out it's between 3 and 4 to 1 because (3 * 40 is $120), and (4 * 40 is $160) so it's somewhere in there.

Calculator says 3.6-to-1.

Now what?

Too bad you didn't memorize that 9 outs gives 4.22-to-1 for the Turn, and 1.86 with both Turn+River to come.

There are two cards to come, so at 3.6-to-1 winnings and I only need 1.86-to-1 to call right!?

Can I really use the Turn+River outs of 1.86-to-1 to say this is a profitable call *over the two cards*?

Nope.

As pointed out by various literature, the River card likely won't be free. What bet might come on the river? Should I factor that in and somehow add some future bets to make sure it's break even. That sounds impossible. And therein lies the problem with any Turn+River odds (and the rule of '4'). It's a bust unless there are no more bets to come.

Poker pundits say I could play each draw as if it were my last.

Using only the Turn odds now it's not looking so good: WIN 3.6-to-1 with a 4.22-to-1 chance. Answer: not profitable call for TURN only odds.


EXTRA CREDIT: But wait -- the first to act is reaching for his chips, it looks pretty certain he's going to stay in! Should I recalculate the return with his extra twenty bucks? Yes. Do it. Left as exercise for the student.

How much time did that all take me?

I probably wrote this post faster than I can handle that one single situation. I forgot to even think about stack sizes, implied odds, or even look at the board and think about what my opponents might hold. Fail.
 
R

RickAversion

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 2, 2013
Total posts
597
Chips
0
LOL, great post by Ben.

I also struggle(d) with the exact same "odds for one card or two"?
I also struggle(d) with converting % to ratio.

See links above that discusses that.
 
ILIKEFISH31

ILIKEFISH31

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 23, 2013
Total posts
159
Chips
0
Good thread and great links contained within. I subscribed.

Generally, with me, I tend to struggle learning new concepts initially. For whatever reason, that's part of my process. If you had a large classroom setting, there would be many things that I was one of the slower ones to take to initially. Not everything...just the really complicated things. Quickly, things will begin going the other direction, though. Once I get my "foot in the door", so to speak, as far as the basic concepts, my pace of learning typically far, far exceeds my peers.

All of that said: I've found that just implementing some of this simple math into your off the table studying, and then spending a little time on poker math that is way over your head, combined with then trying to apply these concepts over large volume sessions, is the quickest and easiest way to start really grasping them. It's quickly becoming automatic for me at this point and that's just after about 20k hands.

online poker forces you to become both proficient and speedy in these calculations at the table and I think it's setting up a good foundation for us to begin with.
 
btc87

btc87

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 5, 2014
Total posts
35
Chips
0
You have to "feel" what are your odds at any time.
 
REALITYPOKER

REALITYPOKER

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 16, 2009
Total posts
173
Chips
0
Don't be fooled - in "real-time" it's not so simple. Even if you memorized or can calculate the rule of 2 or 4 at lightening speed that gives you a PERCENTAGE. What are you going to do with a PERCENTAGE?

As the pot-odds-for-dummies spells out, the typical pot-odds technique involves ADDING up all chips in the pot and sprayed around the table and DIVIDE by the bet to give an X-to-1. How does this "X-to-1" relate to the PERCENTAGE from the rule of 2-4?

It doesn't. At least not in any way I've found useful in real-time.

Take an example: post-flop, $85 pot, $20 open bet, $20 raise to $40 in front of me. I've got 9 outs. From purely pot-odds break-even point of view, is this a profitable call?

My outs tell me 18% or 36% chance for rule of 2-4, (or I happen to know 19.1% and 34.97% but big deal). That PERCENTAGE doesn't help me make the call. So what good is the rule of 2-4?

As pot-odds-for-dummies and most pot odds sites explain, I better try the math route. Please calculate below at lightening speed:

$85 + $20 + $40 = $145. Divide $145/$40.

Can you do all of this quickly?

I can't. Not without annoying my pals. Especially after a few beers.

Let's hope you could figure out it's between 3 and 4 to 1 because (3 * 40 is $120), and (4 * 40 is $160) so it's somewhere in there.

Calculator says 3.6-to-1.

Now what?

Too bad you didn't memorize that 9 outs gives 4.22-to-1 for the Turn, and 1.86 with both Turn+River to come.

There are two cards to come, so at 3.6-to-1 winnings and I only need 1.86-to-1 to call right!?

Can I really use the Turn+River outs of 1.86-to-1 to say this is a profitable call *over the two cards*?

Nope.

As pointed out by various literature, the River card likely won't be free. What bet might come on the river? Should I factor that in and somehow add some future bets to make sure it's break even. That sounds impossible. And therein lies the problem with any Turn+River odds (and the rule of '4'). It's a bust unless there are no more bets to come.

Poker pundits say I could play each draw as if it were my last.

Using only the Turn odds now it's not looking so good: WIN 3.6-to-1 with a 4.22-to-1 chance. Answer: not profitable call for TURN only odds.


EXTRA CREDIT: But wait -- the first to act is reaching for his chips, it looks pretty certain he's going to stay in! Should I recalculate the return with his extra twenty bucks? Yes. Do it. Left as exercise for the student.

How much time did that all take me?

I probably wrote this post faster than I can handle that one single situation. I forgot to even think about stack sizes, implied odds, or even look at the board and think about what my opponents might hold. Fail.





+1 I love this and gave me a chuckle
 
A

alunelu33

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 10, 2014
Total posts
26
Chips
0
Very difficult to calculate online indeed. Live you got more time, but still takes lot of practice.
 
Mase31683

Mase31683

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 27, 2008
Total posts
1,474
Awards
1
Chips
1
People are making this sound harder than it is. It just takes practice, and yeah some situations come up over and over so you begin to understand your odds when you're on a flush draw, open ended straight draw, etc.

I didn't like getting the % when I first started, I'd always go straight to odds.

Example, flush draw you have 9 outs. After the flop there's 47 unseen cards, 9 good 38 bad which reduces to just over 4:1. Of course you have some implied odds, so that can come down a bit.

After a little practice, it's really not hard at all.
 
S

seventhcereal

Rising Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 1, 2013
Total posts
23
Chips
0
My best analogy to poker is like that prison booty bandit you see on discovery channel. There ain't no shame to his game. Ain't much math involved, just need to be deviously cunning. As doyle brunson says, it's about breaking the guy. When he's ready to get committed and you have a hand that can break him that's whne you make your move. When you get more experienced you'll realize that using an odds calculator is a great way to win small pots and lose huge ones.
 
Poker Odds - Pot & Implied Odds - Odds Calculator
Top