calculating odds

#1 May 20th, 2020, 3:15 PM

Hello
I would like to know why my calculations are different than any cheat sheets.
Example;
I need to make trips with jacks with 1 on the board and another in my hand
There is also is a possible straight with a Q needed.
So there should be 6 outs (could be wrong) and I used the cheat sheat.
The sheat said 24.1% and I had the odds to call but after when I calculated myself I divided my 6 outs by the cards left, 4 on the board and 2 in my hand leaves 46.
So 6/46 = 13% and not the 24.1% showen on a few cheat sheets.
What am I not understanding?

#2 May 20th, 2020, 4:57 PM

On the flop you multiply your outs by 4 and then on the turn you multiply your outs for 2 to realize your odds to hit the outs. Hope this helps!!

#3 May 20th, 2020, 7:09 PM

Originally Posted by Ofarah

On the flop you multiply your outs by 4 and then on the turn you multiply your outs for 2 to realize your odds to hit the outs. Hope this helps!!

Yes thanks for that, but maybe i should have had more detail.
All that was left to see was the river, one chance for 6 outs.
Am I wrong by deviding my outs by all unknowen cards?
Are the odds on cheat sheet only for the turn and river combined ?

#4 May 20th, 2020, 7:13 PM

Sorry I am very new to these and could be missing something basic that most would assume that I would know.
Please bare that in mind, thanks

#5 May 20th, 2020, 7:22 PM

Originally Posted by Allyte

Sorry I am very new to these and could be missing something basic that most would assume that I would know.
Please bare that in mind, thanks

It is hard to say without you providing the villains hands and more info. My guess is that you had more outs than you thought due to split pot possibilities.

#6 May 20th, 2020, 7:26 PM

on your odds chart sheet, you were looking at the odds of hitting 6 outs by the turn or river, which is ~25%. the odds of hitting on the turn only, after the flop, is ~13%. the same for hitting on the river, from the turn.

#7 May 20th, 2020, 7:30 PM

you have to put the exact data in relation to the tournament you want to analyze from the number of players, awards the icm and if necessary the boutis if so warranted so if you will have the exact data to analyze your hands and detect where you made a mistake

#8 May 20th, 2020, 8:24 PM

Originally Posted by Ofarah

It is hard to say without you providing the villains hands and more info. My guess is that you had more outs than you thought due to split pot possibilities.

I�m only trying to calculate the odds of any of the 6 cards coming on the turn.
I see where you�re coming from, you mean the odds of winning but that�s not what I mean.
Thanks anyway my friend

#9 May 20th, 2020, 8:27 PM

Originally Posted by ohshootmybad

on your odds chart sheet, you were looking at the odds of hitting 6 outs by the turn or river, which is ~25%. the odds of hitting on the turn only, after the flop, is ~13%. the same for hitting on the river, from the turn.

Cool thank you.
This 13% you say tied in with my calculations and it looks like this is how I misused the sheet.
Your font is hard to look at after a few drinks 😁

#10 May 20th, 2020, 8:30 PM

Originally Posted by diego farfan

you have to put the exact data in relation to the tournament you want to analyze from the number of players, awards the icm and if necessary the boutis if so warranted so if you will have the exact data to analyze your hands and detect where you made a mistake

Thanks for the reply but I know now where I was going wrong.
I wasn�t looking for my % chance of winning, only the % chance of one of my six cards appearing on the turn.
I should have explained better.
Sorry about that

#11 May 20th, 2020, 11:53 PM

Originally Posted by Allyte

Cool thank you.
This 13% you say tied in with my calculations and it looks like this is how I misused the sheet.
Your font is hard to look at after a few drinks 😁

haha. whoops, my bad. i hope i didn't strain your eyeballs too much.

#12 May 21st, 2020, 9:40 AM

Originally Posted by ohshootmybad

haha. whoops, my bad. i hope i didn't strain your eyeballs too much.

Ha ha.
I�m glad I didn�t see that last night.
What font is that, or is it many?

#13 May 21st, 2020, 1:32 PM

Originally Posted by Allyte

Hello
I would like to know why my calculations are different than any cheat sheets.
Example;
I need to make trips with jacks with 1 on the board and another in my hand
There is also is a possible straight with a Q needed.
So there should be 6 outs (could be wrong) and I used the cheat sheat.
The sheat said 24.1% and I had the odds to call but after when I calculated myself I divided my 6 outs by the cards left, 4 on the board and 2 in my hand leaves 46.
So 6/46 = 13% and not the 24.1% showen on a few cheat sheets.
What am I not understanding?

I use this formula for pot odds: If the action is on flop and you did not see Trun card yet then: Outs*4
If you saw Turn card : Outs*2

#14 May 21st, 2020, 4:49 PM

Originally Posted by mt2lhd

I use this formula for pot odds: If the action is on flop and you did not see Trun card yet then: Outs*4
If you saw Turn card : Outs*2

sorry, but this is incorrect.

you only use the outs * 4 formula if you're guaranteed to see the river. this is only possible if it's guaranteed there will be no more betting after the flop. otherwise, you need to do outs * 2 for the flop-to-turn and outs * 2 for the turn-to-river.

the reason is the chance of future betting after the flop and after the turn. you need to calculate the odds of hitting on those specific streets independently, otherwise you will be giving yourself too high of odds to hit and will calling with incorrect odds or in -ev situations.

general rule:

outs * 2 if river isn't guaranteed from flop (ie: you have chance to fold to a bet on a future street)
outs * 4 if river is guaranteed from flop (ie: a player is all-in and there is no chance of betting on future streets)
you will use outs * 2 more often, outs * 4 is rare

#15 May 21st, 2020, 4:50 PM

Originally Posted by Allyte

Ha ha.
I�m glad I didn�t see that last night.
What font is that, or is it many?

many.

#16 May 21st, 2020, 7:33 PM

You read the wrong column on your chart. 6 outs on the turn is 13%. 6 outs on both the turn and the river is 24.1%. In other words after the flop your chance of getting one of your outs by the river was 24.1% but only 13% by the turn.

#17 May 22nd, 2020, 1:28 PM

Originally Posted by ohshootmybad

sorry, but this is incorrect.

you only use the outs * 4 formula if you're guaranteed to see the river. this is only possible if it's guaranteed there will be no more betting after the flop. otherwise, you need to do outs * 2 for the flop-to-turn and outs * 2 for the turn-to-river.

the reason is the chance of future betting after the flop and after the turn. you need to calculate the odds of hitting on those specific streets independently, otherwise you will be giving yourself too high of odds to hit and will calling with incorrect odds or in -ev situations.

general rule:

outs * 2 if river isn't guaranteed from flop (ie: you have chance to fold to a bet on a future street)
outs * 4 if river is guaranteed from flop (ie: a player is all-in and there is no chance of betting on future streets)
you will use outs * 2 more often, outs * 4 is rare

Thank you, but i mentioned outs * 2 for turn-to-river in my last sentence, I think you missed it calculating odds

, You explained the rule nice and complete

#18 May 22nd, 2020, 3:58 PM

Originally Posted by mt2lhd

Thank you, but i mentioned outs * 2 for turn-to-river in my last sentence, I think you missed it calculating odds

, You explained the rule nice and complete

Thanks for the information.
I think I will just use my calculator to work out the odds at each step as I feel its easier for me to understand.
Thanks for the input

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