Bubble play equity question

swingro · Jul 17, 2010

I recently read the Collin Moshman "Sit and go strategy" book and i have a question about buble play equity.

Suppose i am one of the average stacks in the bubble and i have QQ on the BB with 10-15 BB. Some other stack comeparing to mine (a LAG player)goes all in from midle position. Moshman strongly recommend to fold because of the equity.

1. For expert players. (Will you fold in a SNG bubble play?)
2. During the bubble play in a tournament if you know the player's profile is LAG will you fold.

This are 2 different questions because one of them is for the long run concept and the other one is happening rarely.

Mr.Clutch04 · Jul 25, 2010

I am not sure what he means....I would call without a doubt here....he is shortstacked from what you said (10-15bb) and only two hands would be ahead of you preflop(kings and aces) so it is most likely that preflop you will have alot of equity here and thus you should be trying to get as much value out of them as possible thus you should call. Given he is a LAG player, he could be playing a wide range of hands here considering how short his stack. Also, you are shortstacked (less than 20 bb) so you should be looking to go all in with any pckt pair or any type of good drawing hand

swingro · Jul 26, 2010

Mr.Clutch04 said:
I am not sure what he means....I would call without a doubt here....he is shortstacked from what you said (10-15bb) and only two hands would be ahead of you preflop(kings and aces) so it is most likely that preflop you will have alot of equity here and thus you should be trying to get as much value out of them as possible thus you should call. Given he is a LAG player, he could be playing a wide range of hands here considering how short his stack. Also, you are shortstacked (less than 20 bb) so you should be looking to go all in with any pckt pair or any type of good drawing hand

He says that calling and losing is a disaster because my equity goes to 0. If i call and win i do not gain equit but the 2 shorter stacks that fold(SB and Button) . I am a favourite 74 percent of the time. He puts there a fancy equation(using ICM to aproximate equities) and i understood it.

And he is right . If you or your opponent are eliminated everyone else is automatically in the money so their equity grow.Bubble play at 9 players Sng means that there are 4 players remaining. One out and the others are in the money making profit.

He says that you need kings or aces for a positive equity call.

Knowing this will you throw queens in the bubble when a stack equal to yours goes all in?

only_bridge · Jul 26, 2010

What I dont understand is the point of this post. You ask a question, then answer it yourself.
Most of the time you will call with QQ, but in the specific case that Moshman mentions in his book, you have the right price to call with KK or AA, but not with QQ.
I guess you should have placed this thread in the 'brags' category instead, with the title: 'Brag-I understand this concept'

swingro · Jul 26, 2010

Than i will put the question again.
For Exp players. Will you fold in the Sng Bubble with an average stack when the outcome could be your elimination 1/3 of the time?
Same for the MTT.

atlantafalcons0 · Jul 26, 2010

I'm not folding queens on the bubble of a 9 man sng ever.

swingro · Jul 26, 2010

atlantafalcons0 said:
I'm not folding queens on the bubble of a 9 man sng ever.

Thx.

StormRaven · Jul 26, 2010

I am not folding this either. And I will tell you why. When I play sng's, my goal is always the same, to take first. Anytime I am a huge favorite to win and accumulate more chips, I am taking it. I am not playing to just barely get in to the money. Going out on the bubble is frustrating for sure, but I will do it every time in that situation.

lektrikguy · Jul 26, 2010

I agree with Storm...You are shortstacked, waiting for a hand for who knows how long. Then you get a monster against a shove and fold it? Because you might lose? Or not get enough money?? Say you fold. Then the other short stack gets the blinds. He gains chips on you. You go card dead and he hits a big pot. You eventually end up with 2 or 3 BB and are forced to push with a crap hand and bubble out. It just doesn't make sense.

TPC · Jul 26, 2010

swingro said:
Than i will put the question again.
For Exp players. Will you fold in the Sng Bubble with an average stack when the outcome could be your elimination 1/3 of the time?
Same for the MTT.

You can't compare MTT's to one table SNG's. The way we approach them is different.

atlantafalcons0 said:
I'm not folding queens on the bubble of a 9 man sng ever.

This is very short sided and you need to listen to situations such as these to improve your game.

StormRaven said:
I am not folding this either. And I will tell you why. When I play sng's, my goal is always the same, to take first. Anytime I am a huge favorite to win and accumulate more chips, I am taking it. I am not playing to just barely get in to the money. Going out on the bubble is frustrating for sure, but I will do it every time in that situation.

Your goal when you play SNG's shouldn't be to take first. It's not an MTT. True the bulk of the money is still at first place, but the pay outs in relation to the buyin doesn't even compare to MTT's.

One table SNG's are all about equity. If you are serious about SNG's you should really get "Sit N go Strategy" by Collin Moshman. Basically, the reason we are going to think differently in a SNG is because only three places make money. Because of this chips decline in value. The more chips you have, the less each chip is worth. However, the less chips you have the more each chip is worth.

If you are playing a $10 SNG, you get 1,500 chips to start. $10/1500= .006, so the worth of each chip is .006 cents. If you win the SNG, you win $45 for collecting all 13,500 chips. $45/13,500= .003. If the tournament were winner take all then each chip would be worth .006, but because second and third make money when they are eliminated, this causes the difference in chip value from the start of the tournament to the end.

So to modify the OP a little bit. Lets say you have QQ and a player shoves that has the exact same size stack as you. If we ignore the chance of a split pot, three things will happen. We fold, and the guy that shoved wins the blinds and gains a small amount of equity, while the blinds lose some. We call and we win the AIPF, everyone at the table increases equity at the table due to a player being eliminated and the bubble breaking. And third we call and we lose and everyone at the table increases in equity, except us, our equity falls to zero and we are done.

Your goal in a one table SNG should be to survive first, make the money, then play for first.

atlantafalcons0 · Jul 26, 2010

Originally Posted by atlantafalcons0
I'm not folding queens on the bubble of a 9 man sng ever.

This is very short sided and you need to listen to situations such as these to improve your game.

There aren't any situations where I can see myself folding queens in the BB on the bubble of a nine player sng.

Sorry.

TPC · Jul 26, 2010

atlantafalcons0 said:
Originally Posted by atlantafalcons0
I'm not folding queens on the bubble of a 9 man sng ever.

There aren't any situations where I can see myself folding queens in the BB on the bubble of a nine player sng.

Sorry.

This is the situation where you would fold QQ. If you had like 1,500 or 2k behind you after calling the shove, then you would make the call. But due to the stacks being the exact same size it's a fold due to ICM.

You are just looking at it as I have QQ call. You are ignoring the stack sizes and equity associated with them. SNG's are all about equity.

atlantafalcons0 · Jul 26, 2010

TPC said:
This is the situation where you would fold QQ. If you had like 1,500 or 2k behind you after calling the shove, then you would make the call. But due to the stacks being the exact same size it's a fold due to ICM.

You are just looking at it as I have QQ call. You are ignoring the stack sizes and equity associated with them. SNG's are all about equity.

You assume I am ignoring those things. I'm not.

Even with stack sizes considered, this hand is far too strong, 4 handed, to fold.

TPC · Jul 26, 2010

atlantafalcons0 said:
You assume I am ignoring those things. I'm not.

Even with stack sizes considered, this hand is far too strong, 4 handed, to fold.

You are ignoring those things, other wise you would be saying it's a fold.

tomines · Jul 26, 2010

I'll shove all in.. either I get the blinds.. or I double up and get a big chance on the 1st place.. or I lose.. but it's okay.. that's a pro mentality.
considering your chips .. you should shove...

TPC · Jul 26, 2010

tomines said:
I'll shove all in.. either I get the blinds.. or I double up and get a big chance on the 1st place.. or I lose.. but it's okay.. that's a pro mentality.
considering your chips .. you should shove...

That's not the pro mentality. The pro would realize this is a one table SNG and tournament equity is what we use to make our decisions. Again, if we had at least 1,500 in chips left behind after calling the all in, we would make the call in a heart beat.

atlantafalcons0 · Jul 26, 2010

TPC said:
You are ignoring those things, other wise you would be saying it's a fold.

What am i ignoring that makes this an insta fold?

Stack sizes? What about them?

What if this player shoving from MP has shoved the previous 3 hands as well?

What if this player shoving from MP is a terrible player?

I don't see why some of you think that ICM calculations do all the work for you.

Depending on the other players at the table is my answer.

Unless the dude shoving is ultra tight or something I'm shoving.

atlantafalcons0 · Jul 26, 2010

TPC said:
That's not the pro mentality. The pro would realize this is a one table SNG and tournament equity is what we use to make our decisions. Again, if we had at least 1,500 in chips left behind after calling the all in, we would make the call in a heart beat.

So you only use equity to make your decisions? No reads?

LMAO dude. You're so funny.

TPC · Jul 26, 2010

atlantafalcons0 said:
What am i ignoring that makes this an insta fold?
Stack sizes? What about them?
What if this player shoving from MP has shoved the previous 3 hands as well?
What if this player shoving from MP is a terrible player?
I don't see why some of you think that ICM calculations do all the work for you.
Depending on the other players at the table is my answer.
Unless the dude shoving is ultra tight or something I'm shoving.

Now you are creating parameters outside of the OP. The only read we have on the player from the OP is that he is a LAG player. LAG doesn't mean donkey and a true LAG, a LAG that knows what he is doing isn't shoving from MP, which is UTG four handed, lightly.

atlantafalcons0 said:
So you only use equity to make your decisions? No reads?

LMAO dude. You're so funny.

I'll use reads when they are available. From above, the only read we have is he is a LAG player. So we either have to make qualifying statements which will change our parameters of the hand which in turn would change our decision. Yes, if the guy was just shoving every hand, I would probably make the call, but that also depends on the other stacks at the table too.

Is there just one huge stack at the table? How does he play? With that other huge stack at the table, does that mean there is a shorter stack? If you read the OP closely, we have an average stack and so does the guy shoving, which implies there is a stack bigger than ours and one smaller than ours. Which is what I'm basing my decision on. Which you ignored.

The question would be easier to answer if we knew the exact size of the stacks. How small of a stack does the small stack have? How many orbits can he last? If he is supper short, it's an easy fold with QQ. Also what is the short stacks play like? Is he the type to just blind out waiting for a hand? What is the big stack like? Is he smart or would he make an extremely loose call that could double up the SSer? How about the LAG with the stack the same size as ours? Would he make a lose call against the SSer? If he would and does, then we are gold. That is what we want cause we wouldn't care what really happens in that situation, cause the LAG player would now be short if he lost. All these thoughts should be going through your head when you are playing a SNG. So OMG I have QQ, I have to call is a beginners mindset. Again the stacks and equity are what's important, in this situation.

atlantafalcons0 · Jul 26, 2010

TPC said:
Now you are creating parameters outside of the OP. The only read we have on the player from the OP is that he is a LAG player. LAG doesn't mean donkey and a true LAG, a LAG that knows what he is doing isn't shoving from MP, which is UTG four handed, lightly.

I'll use reads when they are available. From above, the only read we have is he is a LAG player. So we either have to make qualifying statements which will change our parameters of the hand which in turn would change our decision. Yes, if the guy was just shoving every hand, I would probably make the call, but that also depends on the other stacks at the table too.

Is there just one huge stack at the table? How does he play? With that other huge stack at the table, does that mean there is a shorter stack. If you read the OP closely, we have an average stack and so does the guy shoving, which implies there is a stack bigger than ours and one smaller than ours. Which is what I'm basing my decision on. Which you ignored.

The question would be easier to answer if we knew the exact size of the stacks. How small of a stack does the small stack have? How many orbits can he last? If he is supper short, it's an easy fold with QQ. Also what is the short stacks play like? Is he the type to just blind out waiting for a hand? What is the big stack like? Is he smart or would he make an extremely loose call that could double up the SSer? How about the LAG with the stack the same size as ours? Would he make a lose call against the SSer? If he would and does, then we are gold. That is what we want cause we wouldn't care what really happens in that situation, cause the LAG player would now be short if he lost. All these thoughts should be going through your head when you are playing a SNG. So OMG I have QQ, I have to call is a beginners mindset. Again the stacks and equity are what's important, in this situation.

Great post! I agree with you to an extent. I just think this question is a little too hard to answer in general. You'd have to know what the players around you are capable of doing. I do think the stacks and equity are what's important but the reads I have on my opponents are more important. And speaking in general terms or what do I do most of the time, I would shove. There are rare cases where I'd fold this hand, but with the info I have, I have to say shove. I don't have enough specific information to make me want to fold.

"The question would be easier to answer if we knew the exact size of the stacks."

KoRnholio · Jul 26, 2010

It all depends on the other two shorter stacks. If the stacks are 8k for the LAG, 3k for you and 1k for the other two stacks, the decision is close. With those stack sizes you have around 29% equity (google ICM poker for a calculator).

For sake of simplicity, let's say the LAG has about a 30% chance of knocking you out if you call (say he has like A4 or K9). 30% of the time you'll have $0 equity. 70% of the time you'll double up, making the stack sizes 6k for you, 5k for LAG, 1k, 1k. With these stack sizes you'd now have 44% equity.

Folding = 29% equity
Calling and losing (30% of the time) = 0% equity
Calling and winning (70% of the time) = 44% equity
Average equity for calling = (.30 * 0) + (.70 * 44) = 30.8%

As you can see, even though your edge in the particular hand is high (70/30), due to the payout structure, it's actually a marginal call.

If we have a hand like AQ and are in this same spot, our edge is smaller, likely about 62%, and a fold is in order:

Folding = 29% equity
Calling and losing (35% of the time) = 0% equity
Calling and winning (62% of the time) = 44% equity
Average equity for calling = (.30 * 0) + (.62 * 44) = 27.3%

TPC · Jul 26, 2010

atlantafalcons0 said:
Great post! I agree with you to an extent. I just think this question is a little too hard to answer in general. You'd have to know what the players around you are capable of doing. I do think the stacks and equity are what's important but the reads I have on my opponents are more important. And speaking in general terms or what do I do most of the time, I would shove. There are rare cases where I'd fold this hand, but with the info I have, I have to say shove. I don't have enough specific information to make me want to fold.

"The question would be easier to answer if we knew the exact size of the stacks."

Ahh, you are getting close. However, when we don't know much about a player. We have to take default lines. More basic lines, with less risk. If we were playing a SNG with players we have never played before, we have no clue what we are up against. Therefore we need to respect everyone's play until they give us reasons not to.

Therefore, we need to base our decisions on what we do know. All we know in this situation is the guy shoving is a LAG player. Well, that's important for post flop play, when a guy shoves, there is no post flop play. Again it's a shove from MP, and we are four handed. Since we are four handed it's an UTG shove. So, everyone still left to act after the open shove by the lag. Again, stack sizes would be nice, but we don't have that. However, since we know the LAG shover and our stack is about the same size and they are "average stacks" this means there is a larger stack and a smaller stack. How small and how large, we don't know. The big stack is left to act behind him as well as a guy that is super short. The LAG knows this, which means as I said before, He not open shoving light in this situation.

So where you said

atlantafalcons0 said:
There are rare cases where I'd fold this hand, but with the info I have, I have to say shove. I don't have enough specific information to make me want to fold.

You should be thinking that you don't have enough info to make the call. Again, it's all about stack sizes and equity. We do know there is another player shorter than us. We are on the bubble. If we call and win, us and everyone at the table, including the short stack gain equity. If we lose, we have 0 equity and everyone else gains equity. Therefore, with the info given, and what we can extract from the info given the best play is to fold.

Let's add data to the situation. We will add chip stacks is all. No other data other than what is in the OP.

swingro said:
Suppose i am one of the average stacks in the bubble and i have QQ on the BB with 10-15 BB. Some other stack comeparing to mine (a LAG player)goes all in from midle position.

What would you do in the above situation with the following stack sizes?

STACK SIZE A
BS = 5k
LAG = 3.5k
Hero = 3.5k
SSER = 1.5k

STACK SIZE B
BS = 6k
LAG = 3.5k
Hero = 3.4k
SSER = 600

STACK SIZE C
BS = 5k
LAG = 3.1k
Hero = 3.2k
SSER = 2.2k

Mr.Clutch04 · Jul 26, 2010

Hey TPC, if this was in an mtt, this would have to be a standard call, right?

atlantafalcons0 · Jul 26, 2010

TPC said:
Ahh, you are getting close. However, when we don't know much about a player. We have to take default lines. More basic lines, with less risk. If we were playing a SNG with players we have never played before, we have no clue what we are up against. Therefore we need to respect everyone's play until they give us reasons not to.

Therefore, we need to base our decisions on what we do know. All we know in this situation is the guy shoving is a LAG player. Well, that's important for post flop play, when a guy shoves, there is no post flop play. Again it's a shove from MP, and we are four handed. Since we are four handed it's an UTG shove. So, everyone still left to act after the open shove by the lag. Again, stack sizes would be nice, but we don't have that. However, since we know the LAG shover and our stack is about the same size and they are "average stacks" this means there is a larger stack and a smaller stack. How small and how large, we don't know. The big stack is left to act behind him as well as a guy that is super short. The LAG knows this, which means as I said before, He not open shoving light in this situation.

So where you said

You should be thinking that you don't have enough info to make the call. Again, it's all about stack sizes and equity. We do know there is another player shorter than us. We are on the bubble. If we call and win, us and everyone at the table, including the short stack gain equity. If we lose, we have 0 equity and everyone else gains equity. Therefore, with the info given, and what we can extract from the info given the best play is to fold.

Let's add data to the situation. We will add chip stacks is all. No other data other than what is in the OP.

What would you do in the above situation with the following stack sizes?

STACK SIZE A
BS = 5k
LAG = 3.5k
Hero = 3.5k
SSER = 1.5k

STACK SIZE B
BS = 6k
LAG = 3.5k
Hero = 3.4k
SSER = 600

STACK SIZE C
BS = 5k
LAG = 3.1k
Hero = 3.2k
SSER = 2.2k

I'm starting to see what you mean here, I'd fold all three.

Especially example B because the short stack is so short the bubble will burst soon.

The addition of stack sizes makes this question much easier to answer.

How would our action change if the chips were more evened out between all players OR if three of the four players had < 1.2k?

TPC · Jul 26, 2010

KoRnholio said:
It all depends on the other two shorter stacks. If the stacks are 8k for the LAG, 3k for you and 1k for the other two stacks, the decision is close. With those stack sizes you have around 29% equity (google ICM poker for a calculator).

Due to what the original post in this thread said the stacks wouldn't be like that for this problem. The stacks would be more like the examples I gave in post 22.

Mr.Clutch04 said:
Hey TPC, if this was in an mtt, this would have to be a standard call, right?

Lol, well that depends. I'm amusing you are meaning we are on the bubble with an average stack size. Well that now depends on what the average stack is in relation to our M ratio. Does our average stack equal an M of 30 or an M of 10? If we have no reads on the villain and an M of 10 it's an easy call. If we have no reads on the villain and an M of 30, I'd probably fold. There is no need to risk our entire stack on one hand AIPF when we have an M that high. We would also need to think what a villain with an M of 30 would be shoving with from MP on the bubble.

atlantafalcons0 said:
I'm starting to see what you mean here, I'd fold all three.

Especially example B because the short stack is so short the bubble will burst soon.

The addition of stack sizes makes this question much easier to answer.

How would our action change if the chips were more evened out between all players OR if three of the four players had < 1.2k?

Well if the stacks were all even, we would all have around 3,375 chips. It would depend on the villain, what the blinds are and what the table is doing. Is everyone just shoving AIPF with the stacks all being the same? You typically don't see this that often. In the rare case you are, I would probably call. If it's just going to be a shove fest, this is our best chance. But I think that scenario is pretty rare. More often than not with the stacks being the same, people would probably still be doing standard raises, In which case I would more than likely three bet shove, but again it depends on the villain.

If three of the four players had 1.2k or less and we are keeping with the OP, where the UTG raiser with 1.2k is shoving, and we are the BB. It would depend on how big the blinds are. If they are like 200 or more, which is probably likely sense we are four handed, I would more than likely call. If we had the big stack, it's an easy call.

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