Bluff/Value Ratios

NWPatriot · Mar 19, 2019

First off, let me say that I think that I personally do not bluff enough.

In studying various bluffing strategies, I have seen a proposed bluff:value betting ratio of: flop 2:1, turn, 1:1, river 1:2. Of course there are many things that go into a bluff, but these ratios seem very high to me.

The proper definition of a bluff is really needed to understand this as well. Do you consider a c-bet a bluff? Do you consider having 14 outs a bluff? Is a bluff only if you have less than 49% equity (if so AK against a pair is a bluff?)

Considering c-bets a bluff would bring my ratios up quite a bit, but i guess i never really thought of these as bluffs.

What do you guys/gals think?

Nathan Smith · Mar 19, 2019

Yes I don't bluff as balanced as I should - because the players I play against don't fold enough - so this is a way of exploiting their tendencies.

Those ratios you talk about are part of a GTO strategy - so should only be used against good thinking players. Remember don't try to bluff someone who isn't paying attention.

Cody5991 · Mar 19, 2019

Definitely depends on what and who you are playing but in general I am like you and don’t bluff near as much as I probably could or should for that matter but I like to bluff in situations that make a lot of sense but could also be risky. For instance nobody raises pre flop and the flop is A7A and I am holding QQ and nobody raises again I will definitely bluff that flop even thought yes I technically have a decent hand but when I bet everyone now generally thinks I have an ace and some other card. This is a pretty straightforward example and is kind of more of a semi bluff than an actual bluff but I think a lot of people try to bluff when it’s obvious they are bluffing.

NWPatriot · Mar 20, 2019

Cody5991 said:
.... This is a pretty straightforward example and is kind of more of a semi bluff than an actual bluff but I think a lot of people try to bluff when it’s obvious they are bluffing.

Thanks.

Anyone else have any good examples of trying define a bluff vs. a semi-bluff vs. just picking a good spot?

Tylor Mendez · Mar 20, 2019

I think what you are talking about is floating on a draw heavy board and then betting when the draw hits. That is the main sort of "bluff" you may be thinking of or referring to. Yes, try this against tight players. First observe who folds the most tho.

pokerpie · Mar 21, 2019

I find it more difficult in the micro/low stakes to be able to bluff people off hands just because people are callstations for the most part at those buyins. Even if I do end up trying to bluff, if I go two streets with it 90% of the time they got me beat by the river with some donk hand that makes it. Because of that I tend to try and keep to "tight aggressive" style when I do pick up hands.

liuouhgkres · Mar 21, 2019

Bluff is when you bet with no showdown value, trying to make villain fold stronger than your betting hand. If you bet with 9 high it's a bluff, doesn't matter how many outs you have.

How many bluffs you should have depends on several factors, like relative strength of your ranges, bet size and card run outs. On the river though it depends only on your bet size. On the river if you bet pot you should have 33% bluff. Which means one third of your betting range, so value to bluff ratio is 2/1. If you bet half bet you should have 25% bluffs, value to bluff ratio is 3/1.

tauri103 · Mar 21, 2019

it depends mainly on the type of player present on the table. Some people tend to fold more often than others but on top of the image you benefit from. If you play tight the plupard of the temp your opponents will throw their hands if they do not. have nothing to do with your raise. the position increases your chances of bluffing some spot.i still prefer to reduce the frequency of my bluff when the level of players is high.

This Fish Chums · Mar 21, 2019

A true bluff is when you have absolutely nothing and you play it like you got the nuts.

But a bluff is also any time you think you're behind, but bet to push the other person off their hand. If you've got a pair of Aces with 4 to a flush on the board and you don't have the 5th card, then throwing out a bet as though you had the flush is also a bluff, especially when you think someone else does have a low flush.

A semi-bluff can be one of two things. Either you have an OK hand, but not a good hand (like mid-pair) or you have a monster drawing hand, but haven't made it yet (like 14 outs).

A c-bet is a type of bluff if you missed the flop. If you hit the flop then it's not really a "continuation bet" where you're betting just to continue your pre-flop aggression even though you don't have anything.

And a donkey bluff is when you call to showdown without ever actually throwing out a bet.

Hope that helps.

NWPatriot · Mar 21, 2019

This Fish Chums said:
A true bluff is when you have absolutely nothing and you play it like you got the nuts.

But a bluff is also any time you think you're behind, but bet to push the other person off their hand. If you've got a pair of Aces with 4 to a flush on the board and you don't have the 5th card, then throwing out a bet as though you had the flush is also a bluff, especially when you think someone else does have a low flush.

A semi-bluff can be one of two things. Either you have an OK hand, but not a good hand (like mid-pair) or you have a monster drawing hand, but haven't made it yet (like 14 outs).

A c-bet is a type of bluff if you missed the flop. If you hit the flop then it's not really a "continuation bet" where you're betting just to continue your pre-flop aggression even though you don't have anything.

And a donkey bluff is when you call to showdown without ever actually throwing out a bet.

Hope that helps.

Nice, That's a good description.

Where would you put "probe bets" in the scheme of bluff vs. value? Harrington liked "to find out where he was". Maybe that is not a cool thing to do anymore.

I guess i am struggling with the overly simplistic bluff:value ratios that I mentioned at the beginning, as they don't account for all the nuances associated with betting with a wide variety of hands. With enough outs, we can actually have more equity than someone with a small pair, but yet we lump this into a bluff rather than a value hand.

This Fish Chums · Mar 22, 2019

NWPatriot said:
Where would you put "probe bets" in the scheme of bluff vs. value? Harrington liked "to find out where he was". Maybe that is not a cool thing to do anymore.

Well, with a probe bet you're throwing out a small bet, not to get the player to fold but to determine what they have based on their reaction. I think probe bets and pot control bets (betting low in an attempt to get the opponent to trap you so you can make your hand on later streets) are in a class of their own. I wouldn't call them bluffs because they aren't intended to induce a fold (although the fold is nice if it happens). Don't know what to call em. Strategic Stack Reduction?

As for the math, can't help you there. I don't like math, but I love poker, so I don't ruin something I love with something I don't like.

liuouhgkres · Mar 22, 2019

This Fish Chums said:
As for the math, can't help you there. I don't like math, but I love poker, so I don't ruin something I love with something I don't like.

That's why you will never be a good player.

sedlacekj · Mar 22, 2019

Tylor Mendez said:
I think what you are talking about is floating on a draw heavy board and then betting when the draw hits. That is the main sort of "bluff" you may be thinking of or referring to. Yes, try this against tight players. First observe who folds the most tho.

This does not sound like a bluff if the hero is waiting until the draw hits, before betting. A bluff is when you don't have hit yet, but it could, and you bet there. Now the villain has to guess which is really true for you. If you call this a bluff, and villain sees what play, he will decide you are only raising if you have something. This predictability is not good, and real bluffing makes you unpredictable.

This Fish Chums · Mar 22, 2019

liuouhgkres said:
That's why you will never be a good player.

Hey now.

ganbat · Mar 26, 2019

Isn't the semi-bluff like when you bluff with flush or straight draw?

kraemer · Mar 26, 2019

I am often surprised how easy it is to make people throw away their hands, especially when you have created a tight table image...

Especially in tournaments a working bluffing strategy is good as it helps you to survive the times in which you arent dealt good starting hands. Stealing a pot here and there will help to defend your stack against the blinds.

In my experience bluffing works pretty well against players that tend to play too many hands very aggressive... If someone bets 3 - 5 BB in every third hand you can often win the pot instantly with a reraise.

You can also show your cards after a successful bluff to increase your chances of getting a caller for your next monster hand. Especially against weaker players this works well. They rather go broke than to let you steal a pot

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Bluff/Value Ratios

NWPatriot

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Nathan Smith

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Cody5991

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NWPatriot

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Tylor Mendez

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pokerpie

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liuouhgkres

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tauri103

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This Fish Chums

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NWPatriot

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This Fish Chums

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liuouhgkres

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sedlacekj

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This Fish Chums

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ganbat

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kraemer

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