re: Poker & Betting and Bluffing [long]
Originally Posted by Fknife
That example with AK. Board: Q72r. You cbet. Why?
Value: ??? what worse hands will call you here? AJ/AT/KJ/KT???
Bluff: ??? what better hands will fold? AQ/88+/77/22/KQ ???
This is a super great board to cbet. first youhave to consider their range and the likelyhood of those holdings.
This question is really villain dependant, and maybe outside of the scope of what i was initially discussing. Partly because i now have to start making assumptions about the villain. But for now we can assume that they are a decent TAG.
If we do that we can rule out some hands. specifically AQ, in position they shoukd have 3bet that. so we arent dealing with AQ most of the time, which leaves KQ as a hand we are behind and will not get them to fold with a Cbet.
so the other hands are pairs worse than a Q and connector cards.
Pairs less than a Q have a strong chance of folding. fortunately when they do call we stillmay hit our over cards to improve and beatthem.
A sticky bit about betting for value is that part of value means letting people make mistakes. if we simply check we give worse hands we are beating the opportunity to improve for free. we cant do that, so value betting here also potects our hand from potential draws.
worse A's (AT and AJ are the most likely against this opponent) very well may call.
What is important to remember is that when you cbet it does not have to work all the time to be profitable. And it doesthe other thing that bluffing helps with, which is getting calls from worse hands later. If your opponent with a weaker but winning hand (33, 66, 88, etc.) does call when ahead here they will also do it when you hit the board allowing you to exrract value. the Q shoukd be in enough of yoyr betting range that your opponent has a reason to fold. if you make the bet for 1/2 the pot you only need to get them to fold 1/3 of the time for that to be break even and then you shoukd get paid off nicely whe they call you when your ahead.