Basic percentages for C-betting (with varied number of callers)....

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RickAversion

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Let's say you're on the button.


You raise about 7BB's to get only 1 caller. Head's up.
If villain does not have pocket pair, but just 2 overcards,
The odds of V hitting the flop is 1/3 = 33%
The odds of V missing the flop is 2/3 = 67%
So, most of the time, V has missed and you want to C-bet to take the pot.

What if you get 2 callers to your PF raise?
Odds of BOTH MISSING the flop is 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9 = 45%
Odds of ONE of them hitting the flop is (1/3 * 2/3) + (2/3 * 1/3) = 2/9 + 2/9 = 4/9 = 45%
Odds of BOTH of them HITTING the flop is 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 = 10%
So, with 2 callers, odds are that someone has paired the board.
Basically, coin flip is someone hit the board.
C-bet will not be as effective, unless you have TP, etc.

Is this good so far?
 
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RickAversion

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Next let's talk about C-bet size.

V's odds of hitting TP after the missed flop are 6 outs for 12% pot equity in the next card.. You want to bet enough that villain overpaid to see the next card, if he calls.

If I bet 25% of pot, he is getting 5:1 or 17% pot odds.
If I bet 50% of pot, he is getting 3:1 or 25% pot odds.
If I bet 100% of pot, he is getting 2:1 or 33% pot odds.

So, I only really need to C-bet 25% to 50% of the pot for V to either fold, or make a bad call.

If we are short stacked, and he might go all in, then I will consider the next TWO cards. This gives V 24% pot equity. In this case, only betting 50% of pot makes it a coin flip. So, I want to bet more than 50%, maybe more like 75% to 100% of pot, s V is overpaying.

Is this good so far?
 
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