AlfieAA
Legend
Silver Level
The probability is 1 chance in 24 according to this site:
http://www.expss.com/poker/probab.htm
not very good and betting on a gut shot is bad unless you have a flush draw or a pair with it.
Say for example you want a backdoor diamond FD you would need a diamond on the turn and the river. The card that comes on the river is independant to the card that comes on the turn so we can use the formula P (A and B) = P(A)*P(B)
So say you have Jd5d on a 3d4c8h board to calculate probabilty it is just the chance of a diamond on the turn (10 in the deck of 47 cards) multiplied by chance of diamond on river (9 in deck of 46 cards). So (10/47)*(9/46) = 4.16% or 25/1.
Same can be done for BD straights.
I wouldn't worry too much about thinking about your BDs in real time. Sometimes the extra 4% equity leads me to jam some flops but I play a primarily shortstack game so I'm thinking about my current equitywith jamming so BDs are relevant. When you play a few more street your immediate equity isn't really as relevant (although it is obviously still relevant) since you still have more money behind and you think more about how turn cards change your equity. I can sometimes float some boards with BD draws but at an early level in poker I take it more on a street by street basis and wouldn't really give thought to multi-street plans.
Not sure I'm putting across what I mean as eloquently as I'd like. Not 100% sure my explanations look sound. I'm good at Maths and Science, not things like English that involve good writing skills lol.