New Hand!
Hi to all of my faithful followers. This is a hand from the Generations game:
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/224PXcfrH. This is a hand in which you will find yourself in fairly often. No matter which side you are on, you should learn to play this spot correctly.
Action begins with a LAG type player opening big to 4.7 BBs from UTG+1. This should indicate a pretty strong raise for most players, especially this one because he is a loose-passive player with a VPIP of 42 but PFR of 18. Which means he is in 40% of pots but raises less than half of them. That coupled with the size of the raise, are great indicators that he probably has a hand like TT+, AT+ or KQ. His range could be a little wider including KTs and QTs (these hands tend to be overplayed), but from that position with that bet size, I am always erring on the side of giving my opponent credit for a tight range.
I am on the button with T9s. You may be saying, with that type of range, why the heck are you calling with THAT hand. But, there are 7.3 BBs in the pot meaning I would need to call 4.7 to win almost 13. That is pretty close to 3:1
odds meaning I only need to win this pot about 1 out of 4 times. T9s will win against that range about 33.5% of the time. These kind of suited connectors play extremely well in pots against a lot of overpairs and broadway type hands. I like medium suited connectors in these spots because they are so easy to play postflop, especially in position. So, I make the call.
The flop comes 8s 5d Ts giving me top pair and some backdoor straights. Quite unexpectedly, villain checks when he had been c-betting 100% of the time. This was a horrible board for his range with some connectors and a flush draw and lots of tens, eights and fives in my calling range (TT, 88, 55, AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, maybe T8s, A5s, A8s, ect) but he did still have the nut advantage with his overpairs, so when he checks here, I am pretty sure he missed the flop. So I lead out with a third size pot bet to give his missed broadways a chance to call and draw. His whole range at this point has about 44%
equity against my range, so he can make this call profitably with most of his range. His exact hand though only had 23% equity and should have folded. BUT.....
Villain decides to raise-jam his 17.6 BBs. This is quite a spot for me because I am getting 4:1 on my money and only have to win 20% of the time, which my hand will win 23% of the time against AA or KK and 21% against QQ and even a little less against JJ, AT, KT, QT and JT. I am drawing really thin against TT but I have 99 beat and a blocker to his set. Against the rest of his range, he is still looking at either runner runner or hitting an overcard. So, I felt this was a profitable call and made the call.
You can see that it turned out to be the right call as he was only winning 23% of the time. He was fortunate to catch an ace on the river but this hand illustrates a couple of things. First, villain overplayed this hand badly. People will overvalue AK and this hand is a clear example of it. AK is a drawing hand. It can be incredibly powerful, but it can also get you stacked. In this hand, villain managed to draw out but slightly more than 3 out of 4 times, he loses this hand. So, how would I have played it differently? He had more than 20 BBs to start, so this is not really an open jam spot unless everyone else at the table is deep stacked. I would open 100% of the time with this hand but to a more reasonable amount so that my opponents don't know what I have. Opening should be according to effective stack size and position and NOT based on hand strength. This makes you too easy for other people to read, and when your opponents can read you, then they will play against you very well. If you disguise your range by opening the same amount with your entire playable range. Then your opponents don't know if you have say AA, QT, T9 or any other hand in your range for the position that you are in. The flop, I would sometimes be making a cbet on this board depending on the exact villain I am against and their potential ranges. This flop fits really well with a button calling range, so MOST of the time, I am also checking, again, depending on my read of the villain in the hand, I am either folding or calling a flop bet. No way I am shoving this knowing that I may be against sets or flush and straight draws and I am giving them the right price to call. IN a lot of spots, I am folding to a bet because I know I can get it in in a better spot.
So, even though I lost this hand, I feel like I played it perfectly. It would be great if Stars would let me win a hand every now and then but that's a whole different rant. LOL
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