Any poker math guys that can help?

Hi guys

I've been spending the weekend trying to get on top of my poker math, but there's one issue I'm having which is quantifying how often villain needs to fold to a semi-bluff non all in raise or bet, accounting for existing pot equity?

I understand the equation in a semi bluff all-in situation as all of the equity against villains range will be realized and he can't be re-raised

For example, Hero is facing a c-bet with a mid flush draw, he has approx 19% equity from flop to turn. Villain is c-betting too often and Hero raises pot as a semi-bluff. Given the texture, villains opening range and tendencies he predicts that villain will fold 40% of the time. Can anyone tell me how to calculate if this would be + or - EV?

My first thought is that facing a PSB villain needs to defend 50% (MDF), but can hero subtract his 19% single street equity to arrive at a lower figure? I understand this could likely be very incorrect

Hope that makes sense!

im not based about this deep math....from what i understand villian is auto cbet.... if i was tired of that i instantly double bet str8 back to him or next player.... if he just calls is probably weakness.... if he checks i do low bet match last bet.... not half pot bet i do quarter bet.... usually will drop depending on stack... if he stays in bets on river you can slam all in at that point if you have the chips..... is a lot more to this equation but hope that helps a bit


p.s. spending so much time on hud details and player details? might not be best way to play.... instinct play enough hands to trust your instinct.... i win with huds or without i do not use a lot more about me while playing looking at a few things I want to see.... i get more just watching players moves timing of bets etc.... any changes they make stats dont always show you the changes