@ bw: just some comments
can't really remember any of the early
hands, but some comments for the kq hand @ ~39mins. 443 really is not a good flop to c-bet here. the loose fish doesn't matter, but the 16/13 guy has a very polarised pf range, which is almost completely small pps, so something like 44-TT. you aren't ever going to fold out small pps on a 443 flop and firing 2 barrels is risky, unless your image is such that you can represent an overpair. i'd check behind on the flop and c/f that hand almost always. another thing to add is about the river reraise. i actually like the river reraise. villain's range is just so polarised here to 55-TT that we are almost never behind on this board. the only thing really beating us here, is a turned set, and the
odds of that is so remote it doesn't matter. a set will shove the river anyways, and you'll get away after losing $7 more, so villain only has to call very occasionally for this to be a +ev play. 99 really is the only hand that beats us. anyways, since typically hero wouldnt' raise that thinly, villain is probably more likely to call a river reraise as it really does look like a
bluff. it isn't "typical" of a K to play the hand that way, and so if villain thinks hero is capable of a river bluff, then i can understand the call (although granted this would be an idiotic line for a bluff...but plenty of players can talk themselves into a call they shouldn't make).
then @ 41mins with the 22 in the sb.
Honestly i'd pitch this basically always. 3 betting 22 is just complete spew imo, since your hand has absolutely zero sd value for all intensive purposes. You are oop, you have to c-bet the flop if called on the river so you might as well do it with 27o, since your pair of 2s really don't matter. overs are always going to come and you are always going to have no idea where you stand on the flop. so you are better off 3 betting wiht s/cs and such, rather than trying to get cute with 22. your hand is almost always going to turn into a bluff if the flop drops.
calling and set mining is horrid as well. a co steal is hardly ever going to pay you off enough to make this + ev since villain's range is quite wide.
22 is an easy fold from sb imo.
