Am I +EV?

6

6bet me

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In the past month, I've done 8 live casino trips, playing a mixture of 80NL ($1/$2), 200NL ($1/$3) and $50 MTT's. My average time spent per trip was about 3 hours (so roughly 150 hands) and I recorded my profit/loss each trip as follows:
1) +$65
2) +$65
3) +$100
4) +$130
5) -$300
6) +$190
7) -$55
8) +$435
Total: +$630 after about 24 hours of play (6 winning sessions, 2 losing sessions)

My question is: is this a large enough sample size to determine whether or not I'm +EV? I feel like I'm better than most of the players on my table, but it's really hard to tell sometimes because I know that there is a lot of variance involved in poker and I might just be on an upswing.

EDIT: The game which I played most is 80NL, so this is equivalent of being 8 stacks up after 24 hours of play.
 
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BigBloom

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Not enough of a sample honestly

Deff heading in the right direction so keep at it hopefully then next few session you will put in more hands

Try to keep track of hands see where youre at when you hit 5 and 10k hands

I would say youre playing +ev and if you can keep at it after 5k you would be boos
 
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WiZZiM

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24 hours of play is literally nothing. if we compare that with the online world in regards to variance.....

24 hours @ 20 hands per hour = 480 hands total

24 hours @ 100 hands per hour online = 2400 hands total

a decent sample to find out if you are overcoming variance is like 20k hands i would think (correct me if i'm wrong cash game players!!!)


Having said all that, i think you are definitely on the right track and the thing is you are much more likely to not have downswings in live games, bc the level of competition is so much worse, and your winrate should be alot higher than online. So basically forget all the info above and just keep playing away and you will get more of an idea with more exp....
 
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joe777

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Some opinions said the minimum sample size is 20k,but they were others opinion saying it is 200k.:eek: :eek: :eek:
 
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WiZZiM

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ya i would think around 100k but for live maybe 20k since that is a hell of a lot of time to be playing...
 
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6bet me

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There's a huge difference between being able to calculate your exact win rate versus just asking whether you're +EV or not.

20k hands might be necessary to know your exact win rate in BB/100, but if all I want to know is whether I'm +EV or not, surely a sample size that large is unnecessary, right?
 
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Saperion

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In the past month, I've done 8 live casino trips, playing a mixture of 80NL ($1/$2), 200NL ($1/$3) and $50 MTT's. My average time spent per trip was about 3 hours (so roughly 150 hands) and I recorded my profit/loss each trip as follows:
1) +$65
2) +$65
3) +$100
4) +$130
5) -$300
6) +$190
7) -$55
8) +$435
Total: +$630 after about 24 hours of play (6 winning sessions, 2 losing sessions)

My question is: is this a large enough sample size to determine whether or not I'm +EV? I feel like I'm better than most of the players on my table, but it's really hard to tell sometimes because I know that there is a lot of variance involved in poker and I might just be on an upswing.

EDIT: The game which I played most is 80NL, so this is equivalent of being 8 stacks up after 24 hours of play.

Im not sure, but u need to study at least 100k hands in order to determinate your EV.

You are running and playing well! ;)
 
6

6bet me

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Im not sure, but u need to study at least 100k hands in order to determinate your EV.

You are running and playing well! ;)

Thanks, but like I said before, I'm not trying to determine my exact EV. All I want to know is whether my EV is greater than zero. It's a much more general question, so the sample size required should be much lower.
 
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Akwind

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EV is counted per hand not trough session result
expected value - you go all in with AK vs AJ and lose for example - but it is +EV
if you play online - the best way is to have poker tracke or holdem manager
offline - idk... they only way i see is to right down all hands that you play (or biggest pots) that seems impossible to me though
 
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WiZZiM

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Thanks, but like I said before, I'm not trying to determine my exact EV. All I want to know is whether my EV is greater than zero. It's a much more general question, so the sample size required should be much lower.

my post was designed as a rough idea to weather you are +ev or not. But you should have a rougher idea at like 5k hands.. that is if you want to look at hard data, you can also just ask yourself if you are +ev and if you have made money, and if so how much. so just count the number of hours you play, and how much you have made so you can work out very rough BB/100 winrates, if your winrate is really high, then you are likely on a massive heater or you are a winning player. You can go lower if you like, but the results will be more and more skewed depending on how your hands are holding up at the time. 1-2 bad beats could skew it drastically.

Just don't get down if you start losing a ton, it's likely just variance coming back to bite you in the ass. The thing most good players who turn themselves into bad players do is react too much when they are losing, and they start adjusting in bad ways to counter it. Just keep playing the same way as when you were winning, and let time decide if you need to make changes.
 
Mase31683

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Brain derailed with limit definitions. $1/$2 is 200nl. Are you saying $80 cuz that's what you buy in for?

If so, you should be buying in for more. When you have an edge on your opponents you want stacks deeper because they are more likely to make big mistakes than you, so when they spew you make sure you're maxing your win.

That being said, no 24 hours isn't close to enough, that's. Play 500 and you'll get a better idea. You'll probably know before then if you're a winning player, but 500 will start to give you an idea of what your hourly is, though I'd really want 1-2k hours for better winrate estimation.

Fwiw, my general inclination is that you probably are a winning player at these limits. The fact that you're on here asking about whether you're really a winner vs variance, that you are somewhat tracking hours and win/loss is indicative you likely are putting more effort into your game then the average player at that level.
 
Aces2w1n

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I'd say it's most likely a heater.

I was playing 200NL at crown and i turned 200 into a couple thousand and i wasn't a winning player then :)

that was over a course of a couple months.


At the end of the day if your winning and consistent. Then your a winning player but don't fool yourself and go climb up too fast take the money while it's coming in and do things like u have.
Build your roll huge and be over nitty with it *best advice i could give*

Once you hit say 10k or 20k then go to 200NL live. I know it's rather defensive but swings can be huge buddy and your bankroll you need to protect.

Main worries would be if your use to winning non stop, what will happen if you have a few losing sessions. Then what? how do you handle things then. If your deep in your bankroll it'll give you time to fix it.
 
Mase31683

Mase31683

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10k is excessive in my opinion for 200nl, but I knew plenty of folks who liked having 50-100 buyins.

Especially given the fact that there is no lower game. Just get in there and play. If you're not a winner, having $10k doesn't matter. But if you're in the game playing, learning, and adapting you can improve your game in the meantime


Here's a wall of text I posted on bankroll management.
 
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