all in or call and push any flop?

C

cracksniper

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 3, 2009
Total posts
170
Chips
0
Hello all, I have not posted on here for a while but I wanted to ask you all what you thought about this situation.
I was playing live last night and made the final table of a 75 player competition buy in was £40 there was 8 players left my stack was 105000 I'm in the big blind bb 10000 sb 5000. I pick up 88 there is an ep raiser who has 150000 it gets folded round to me. My choice is ai (ten bbs) or maybe flat call and if the flop comes low push. Or even push if there is no ace or king on the flop hoping she has missed.
There was one more thing to consider in that there was two players at the table with only 3bbs each so potentially my money could go up when they are knocked out. Hope I've explained it all well enough, by the way 8th place got £150 the winner got £1250. Thanks the sniper
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
a LOT of information missing

was the preflop raiser tight or loose? would she fold to a shove without a top 4 hand (QQ+/AK)? How tight was the rest of the table? What are the payout jumps like?

Probably a fold, a stop and go vs. a late-position raiser would work.
 
R

RamdeeBen

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 9, 2010
Total posts
7,745
Chips
0
As baubid1 states, it depends on the villian really.

He only has 15 blinds himself you have ten, has he made these min bet/folds before? If not and has been quite tight then you're most likely flipping at best and he raised small trying to induce a shove.

I think most times (again depends on villian) I'm shoving this here but if I had a feeling he has a monster then I'd fold.

The problem is, you might not pick up another hand within a few more orbits and by this point has zero fold equity.

You do need to take a flip at some point but hmf, need more stack sizes of others, payout structures etc to decide on the best option.

EDIT: I've just noticed you are in the money already, I think I'm shoving this now more times than not. You have "some" fold equity especially if he is a donkey who will open/fold PF with 15 blinds.
 
C

cracksniper

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 3, 2009
Total posts
170
Chips
0
Thanks for the replies lads the payout structure was basically if the other two short stacks went out before me if I would have come 6th then I would have got around the £220-250 mark. There may have also been the possibility of a multiway chop at this point.
I put her on a big hand obviously but AQ or AK and with that amount of chips I was obvioulsy playing this hand as one of you said you have to win races at some point. I shoved and she took ages to call and showed AQ she hit her Q on the turn and I went out.
All I can say is that i got my money in in front and if i would have held up would have been chip leader. The only other question is the call and push if no big cards come out. She's not calling if she doesn't hit but the ai gives her 5 chances to hit, but it's still a big call from her she must have know she was behind as I'm not shoving with AJ!! Also she would have been virtually out of the tourney with little more than 4-5 bbs left. I think it's a bad call on her behalf and she got lucky.
My opinion anyway guys you have to win races but I would rather be the one that shoves first as they can always fold.
Lastly, you have all the info you need I can't give you a book on it....
 
R

RamdeeBen

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 9, 2010
Total posts
7,745
Chips
0
Thanks for the replies lads the payout structure was basically if the other two short stacks went out before me if I would have come 6th then I would have got around the £220-250 mark. There may have also been the possibility of a multiway chop at this point.
I put her on a big hand obviously but AQ or AK and with that amount of chips I was obvioulsy playing this hand as one of you said you have to win races at some point. I shoved and she took ages to call and showed AQ she hit her Q on the turn and I went out.
All I can say is that i got my money in in front and if i would have held up would have been chip leader. The only other question is the call and push if no big cards come out. She's not calling if she doesn't hit but the ai gives her 5 chances to hit, but it's still a big call from her she must have know she was behind as I'm not shoving with AJ!! Also she would have been virtually out of the tourney with little more than 4-5 bbs left. I think it's a bad call on her behalf and she got lucky.
My opinion anyway guys you have to win races but I would rather be the one that shoves first as they can always fold.
Lastly, you have all the info you need I can't give you a book on it....

I think I'm just shoving if I'm her, not just min betting to then tank over to call or not, not sure why she took so long to call it off? Anyway, irrelvent,

You definitely can't call here unless you are being tricky and playing Aces/Kings at this point, I don't think calling is an option as you're basically hoping to hit your set or shove if no over cards come, which chances are won't happen. Besides which, with only 10 blinds left, this is a huge error to just call with a small pair.

By the way, you say she must think she is behind, but I really am snap calling this if I'm her IF I'm shoved on myself, more times than not you're are ahead in these situations with A,Q. It's a monster when you're 10-15blinds. Sure you should/could be shoving A,J here, hell there is argument to shove A,10+//K,Js+ to a min raise here..I would be.

She can't expect to really be behind most of the time here, she is only ever behind to A,K,Queens+ and peoples ranges with 10blinds left are much wider, she HAS to call of after open min raising she can't fold. Secondly, if (which was the case) she was a coin flip pretty much with you, again another spot where a coin flip and race is needed, you or her can't really be picking and choosing to folding hands here. Both hands are good enough to be put in the middle and taking the flip.

I think she shoudl be shoving to start with and you should be snap calling with 6'6s everytime as a couple of hands later, you're going to be 8blinds deep. I think the only error here was her min raising (maybe not even an error if she expects to get someone shove wider with like A,7+ K,J+.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
I don't like stacking off in this spot to be honest, and I'm for flipping as much as possible.

You know how people like to say "AK is a flip at best"? That's really the case here as she rarely has worse pairs. 88 is 40% vs. 77+/AQ-AK, while AK is 50%

The main factor is the two shortstacks, especially if they are coming into the blinds pretty soon. We can fold a few hands and double our payday, I can't see how shoving with worse than TT/AK is going to be good here.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 8, 2005
Total posts
3,167
Chips
0
It seems that there are two ranges to be considered here, namely the opener's opening range and her calling range if you 3-bet shove. I think the majority of opponents will open and fold often enough for the shove to be +EV, but it's hard to gauge how positive at the table. And there's still the question of the table situation / the extent to which you're content to wait and move up one or two places on the pay scale.
 
C

cracksniper

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 3, 2009
Total posts
170
Chips
0
sorry I should have said her raise was 35000 3 1/2 times the bb of 10000 thought I had said that but anyway that was her raise utg
 
naruto_miu

naruto_miu

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 31, 2007
Total posts
12,123
Awards
5
Chips
1
The thing for me to consider is the players playing style and another factor how important is the money for me and for her.

What I mean is for 1 is she loose, tight, does she call always with Ax thinking she's ahead, does she fold AJ often thinking she'd be dominated. More or less what she's playing like

The other thing about it for me would be how important is the money for me and for her. So if the money is no problem for me to lose a flip for the tourney at this stage then I'm getting it in (Not because 88 is a monster but for the simple reasoning that 88 is ahead of her range+it also puts max pressure back on her)...Yet If the money is important to me and not her then I'm folding 88 here in this case because from my standpoint A) I need the money and B) Because she really doesn't care and would call without hesitation for majority of her stack with AQ.

I recall in Ottawa like 2 years ago there was this bar tourney (Long story short it got shut down due to the bar not having a license to gamble RATS)...Buy in was $20 3 times a week and $600 for 1st place top 5 got paid and usually about 80 players showed up...I ended up winning it like 3 times but the 1st time I won I was playing very tight because I really wanted to win the $600, and the next 2 times I didn't give a damn because I had already won so the other wins were just a bonus to I (Hope this explains it somewhat)..
 
C

cracksniper

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 3, 2009
Total posts
170
Chips
0
another thing 88s are 55% heads up against AQo I'd take that anyday with 10bbs
 
naruto_miu

naruto_miu

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 31, 2007
Total posts
12,123
Awards
5
Chips
1
another thing 88s are 55% heads up against AQo I'd take that anyday with 10bbs


The only point I was trying to make you understand was from the money perspective how important was it to you and her, not that it wasn't ahead when the money got all in pre...Yet you also stated that she'd raised 3.5xBB pre, she's not folding once she puts 35K in the middle, and it's only another 65k more with all the dead money+antes in the middle never
 
C

cracksniper

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 3, 2009
Total posts
170
Chips
0
i think she was 50-50 whether to fold or not as it was not a snap call she made, she didn't want to go out of the tourney on a flip but made a call and got lucky she still had 11-12 bbs if she had of folded.
 
naruto_miu

naruto_miu

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 31, 2007
Total posts
12,123
Awards
5
Chips
1
i think she was 50-50 whether to fold or not as it was not a snap call she made, she didn't want to go out of the tourney on a flip but made a call and got lucky she still had 11-12 bbs if she had of folded.

Now I'm really confused because you stated you had 100K to start off with and she had 150K, so if she calls the shove and lost she'd only be left with 5bb's unless I'm reading something wrong
 
C

cracksniper

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 3, 2009
Total posts
170
Chips
0
yes and if she had folded to my ai she would still have been left with 11-12bbs and still in the comp'.
 
Top