Accuracy of Rule of 2 and 4

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rigor mortis

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This post will cause a great deal of controversey, and a lot of defending of the Rule, So exactly how accurate is it, compared to the ratio odds, the other nethod of calculatimg if you will win or not. It has always been explained that it is only a rough calculation to calculate whether or not your chances of winning and rough it is.
The ratio odds are calculated as (47-X)/X for thr turn and (46-X)//X for the river. They have been calculated and converted to percentages for a fair comparison.
The figures it the table says and need no explanation.

Outs Rule of 2 (%) Ratio Odds (%) Difference % Difference 2 4 4.44 0.44 9.90 4 8 9.30 1.30 14.00 8 16 20.51 4.51 22.00 12 24 34.25 10.25 29.92 16 32 51.55 19.55 37.92 20 40 74.07 34.07 46.00
 
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rigor mortis

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Table turned out badly, will try and sort

Outs Rule of 2 % Ratio Odds % Difference %Differenc
2 4 4.44 0.44 9.9
4 8 9.30 1.30 14.00
8 16 20.51 4.51 22.00
12 24 34.25 10.25 29.92
16 32 51.55 19.55 37.92
20 40 74.07 34.07 46.00

The figures are for the flop, waiting for the turn. The figures for the river are the same for Rule of 2 and slightly better for the ratio odds on the riverThe differences betwee the two are not significant, but the percentages are
 
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rigor mortis

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Third time lucky!

Outs...Rule of 2 (%)..... Ratio Odds (%)....Difference,,,,,,,% Difference
2.........4.........................4.44.........................0.44...................9.90
4.........8.........................9.30.........................1.30..................14.00
8........16.......................20.51........................4.51..................22.00
12.......24.......................34.25.......................10.25.................29.92
16.......32.......................51.55.......................19.55.................37.92
20.......40.......................74.04.......................34.07.................46.00

Hope this works. It's not pretty, but it's legible.. There is a difference between the rule of 2 and the Ratio odds, which becomes nore apparent when the percentage differences are calculated.
I know which one I will base my calculations on, Anyone still playing for the Rule of 2?
 
smknginmaine

smknginmaine

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ur making it way to hard man....it's meant to be a simle way to calculate chance of hitting if behind so can compare vs pot odds.
You can't bust out the charts and spreadsheets mid hand. The more you play the more it will become second nature.
But basically...... your outs, assume all live, x4 +4 =ROUGH% on the flop of hitting by river.
On the turn it's outs x2+2=%
It's all a guideline.
Outs with 4 and 2 rule= % vs pot odds.
Forget the rest. As the PERFECT equation you may be trying to formulate gets picked up on by someone playing exploitative- it's out the window.
Or you are, if you can't adapt.
 
smknginmaine

smknginmaine

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Love the screenname. But loosen up. You're not dead yet. And even if you die now.... You've still got a couple hours anyway, before that sets in :)
 
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rigor mortis

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You're missing the point here. Agreed it's a simple way of calculating your chances of success, but it's a totallt inaccurate one.between Rule of 2 and Ratio Odds The fewer the number of out the lower the difference between them comes. But even at 2 outs there is a failure rate of 9.9% and 46% at 20 outs. Not the odds I'd play under.
 
smknginmaine

smknginmaine

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You're missing the point here. Agreed it's a simple way of calculating your chances of success, but it's a totallt inaccurate one.between Rule of 2 and Ratio Odds The fewer the number of out the lower the difference between them comes. But even at 2 outs there is a failure rate of 9.9% and 46% at 20 outs. Not the odds I'd play under.


I wouldn't exactly say I'm missing it... lol. I do understand what you're saying. It's not exact. And there are times where it's even less exact. That's true. So to answer your question of does anyone use it. Yes, to a degree. It's a basic understanding - even if in principle instead of the actual calculation. But making game decisions on the fly- with lots of available information - is crucial. As is, IMO, an understanding of the "rule."
To break it down away from the table with numbers, like you have, for an even deeper understanding and awareness of the flaws in the "rule" great. Even better.
So now apply it in your game.
 
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