I start questioning the AA pair, because today I have three consecutive tournaments where I lose with this hand, will it be bad luck? What do you think???
So...Anderson, this is sort of a fragment of information. Are you raising preflop? How much? 2X 2.5X 10X?
So...a person who "limps with AA or plays it very soft is going to cracked more often because they are encouraging callers...more callers means more chances of losing. If you are playing big
hands like AA strong, you are improving the
odds of your hand holding up because you are narrowing the number of opponents.
Also... really good players are able to fold AA. NEVER PRE_FLOP. It's not something you want to do, but example- I played in a live tournament earlier this week. I raised UTG and got 3 callers, including the Big Blind. The BB could be playing a wode variety of hands here because the other 2 callers added value to the pot, giving him the correct odds to call with small pairs and stuff like suited connectors or a suited Ace.
The flop comes 689, w 2 clubs. BB checks, I bet. The other 2 guys fold and the BB raises half his stack. If I call, I am putting my tournament on the line. I can't call and then fold the turn or river. I need to make a decision to take the hand all the way or fold now. It is highly probable that this guy Has something like 66. Given his stack size and his play in the tourney to this point, a
bluff would be stupid. I doubt he is playing something like top pair this strong, also dumb in this particular case. About the worst hand I can put him on is something like an open ender with a pair... something like 89 or 78, or possibly a gut shot with 2 clubs.
I put this guy on 66, but there are a lotta hands where I am in bad shape.
Let's say he has 67, 78 or 79... I'm still ahead, but it's about 55-45. I don't want to stake my tourney on a coin flip unless I am a weaker player and that's my best shot. If he has a pair w/ flush draw, the odds are worse for me.
So it's probability, not bad luck.
Insane story- in 2007 I was playing full time, and a lot of that was live. I lost THIRTEEN (or 14) STRAIGHT hands where I had KK. The probability of that happening is miniscule...but it happened even though I was (increasing in paranoia, and thus) betting them even more aggressively prefop.
One hand I had KK in the BB. This kid had a big stack and was raising every hand. He raised, I called. The flop was J 4 2, rainbow. I check, knowing this kid can't help himself and he snap-shoves. I call. He has 10 6...yes 10 6... no draw, no hand. he hits a 10 on the turn and another 10 on the river and I get knocked out.
KK is like...97% there... but that means you lose 1 outta 33 times. Those awful beats stay with you, but ya know what?
Give me AA every time. If I can't have AA, gimme Kings.
Don't be afraid of those hands, pray for them and bet them hard when you get them. And for the love of gawd, it has nothing to do with whether you won or lost the previous hand, or the other has won or lost this hand or that hand... discard that kind of analysis immediately... it's simple probability, and when you have AA, YOU have probability on your side, right where you want it.