$2 STT - Ace King - Wrong play?

cjatud2012 said:

not to be a pain, but can you convert this? The missing stack sizes, pot size, etc. makes this a lot harder to analyze.

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atlantafalcons0 said:

The stack sizes are in the photo.

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cjatud2012 said:

I understand that, but it's still a pain to figure the relevant stack sizes on each street... Whatever. Analysis:

The call of the 3-bet pre-flop is fine, kinda sucks that we're out of position, but it's better than jamming 60bb's pre-flop. I dunno what kinda reads you have on this guy, because that would influence what his 3-bet range is... Let's say it's like 88+, AQ+. Let's work with that going forward. I guess that leaves us with about t2700 on the flop with apx. t700 in the pot, we check the flop with tptk and a gutshot, then he fires t300 at us. We have about 60% equity according to pokerstove against the previous range, but part of the problem is that if we play too aggressively we'll fold out the stuff we beat. A check-raise is kind of excessive here anyway, he'd be calling t2400 to win t2400+t1300, so like 1.5-to-1 odds... Eh, maybe that wouldn't be so bad. But still, I think a call is best at this point.

Then on the turn, a relative brick hits, we check again and he c-bets again, this time t500 into about t1300, which is really small, so I'd be inclined to call again. A check-raise may be better on this street based on the stack sizes, it'd be calling t1600 to win t1600+t1800 (I think), basically better than 2-to-1. The thing is your range on the turn is a lot stronger than it is on the flop if you check-raise, which would reduce the number of hands that you can get value from if you check-raise. The same can be said of your shove on the turn-- if you shove, is JJ or KK ever gonna call? What about AJ? Basically, shoving on the river is really pointless imo. I guess we could check-call again, especially since his bet sizing has been really small to this point, I might check-fold the river just because I doubt he's three barreling with anything worse than what we have (or even check-fold the turn, if villain doesn't double barrel often).

This hand would be much easier to play if we were in position, which sort makes me want to play more aggressively pre-flop. Like, if we 4-bet to like t1000, then call a 5-bet (we're never folding after we choose to 4-bet) or shove any flop, our decision making becomes easier, we don't have to worry as much about reverse implied odds, etc. that are commonly associated with playing out of position.

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