2-7 single draw odds

toots babos

toots babos

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would anyone here play this game or have a good understanding of this game?

just wondered if there was a way of calculating odds for hitting your 1 draw hands such as 2345x 2357x 2358x etc etc and even possibly having a way of calculating odds for hitting 2 draw hands?
 
10058765

10058765

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Hi, I do play tho just the 2 dollar tournaments on Stars.
Played a few thousand of them so far (profitable) and I do have a calculator but I'm not home right now and it's on my desktop.
If I don't forget I'll come back to this when i'm back home.
 
toots babos

toots babos

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nice one, cant wait to hear about it.

i've played quite a few of those 2 dollar ones on stars, when im playing well i seem to do quite well in them, won a few of them, shame there are only 2 of those $2 ones each day cos they are quite fun
 
BluffMeAllIn

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4/47 = ~8.5% chance to catch your 1 card

4/47 * 4/46 = ~0.75% chance to catch your 2 cards

Always have to remember though the cards your seeking could be in anothers hand or thrown away already so although the above are the probability of drawing 1 card and geting the card you want its quite slim when looking at it for a specific catch of the nut hand.

Think i gots the math right, basically your looking at a 4 outer and 47 cards you havn't seen that could be your card. When looking at 2 cards you multiply the probably of drawing one and then drawing the other.
 
toots babos

toots babos

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ok i think i get you......

so if i have 2358x, personally i'd be happy hitting any 4, 6 or 7 so by that method you've shown my odds would roughly be 12/47 = 25.5% of hitting the 8 low and lets say you're up against someone who stands on J lows quite often you could add in 9's,T's also so that would be 20/47=44.4% chance of hitting a 10 low or better?
 
BluffMeAllIn

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ok i think i get you......

so if i have 2358x, personally i'd be happy hitting any 4, 6 or 7 so by that method you've shown my odds would roughly be 12/47 = 25.5% of hitting the 8 low and lets say you're up against someone who stands on J lows quite often you could add in 9's,T's also so that would be 20/47=44.4% chance of hitting a 10 low or better?

yup that would be the case to my knowledge atm lol
 
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hffjd2000

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Math is correct but then again you might not getting the correct outs.

Other outs might already folded or being held by you opponents.
 
10058765

10058765

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4/47 * 4/46 = ~0.75% chance to catch your 2 cards
Guess this should be 8/47 * 4/46 because for the first card it doesn't matter which of them you catch.
ok i think i get you......

so if i have 2358x, personally i'd be happy hitting any 4, 6 or 7 so by that method you've shown my odds would roughly be 12/47 = 25.5% of hitting the 8 low and lets say you're up against someone who stands on J lows quite often you could add in 9's,T's also so that would be 20/47=44.4% chance of hitting a 10 low or better?
Yeah, but we don't care about very detailed odds so while playing and guessing our equity on the fly just keep it simple...12 outs is 25 %....16 outs is 33 % etc
Math is correct but then again you might not getting the correct outs.

Other outs might already folded or being held by you opponents.
while this is true, personally I don't think that way because there's also a lot of broadway cards in those folded hands.
Even more we might assume people still in the hand and drawing 1 , 2 or even 3 cards, most of the time throw away broadways.
Exception here is ofc people getting dealt for example low pairs like 66, trowing away a 6 which could be one of your outs.
But again, I keep it pretty simple...if I can use 3 values, so 12 cards to make a 9-low I keep it at at least 25 %.
Besides that I always keep in mind, against people also drawing, my chances are much better because chances are they draw a pair or a bad broadway card.
Now, as I said I play this regularly, but only the $2,2 tournaments at stars.
Because the player pool is small you see the same players again and again.
Therefor, besides some simple equity calculations, it's very important to make player notes.
I'm shooting myself in my feet here I guess, but I recommend the following:

Always, Always if a hand goes to showdown and one or more people muck, look back at the hand to find out what they mucked.
It'll give you an idea what hands people are playing, raising with, calling with, checking with etc....
Soon you'll find out which players raise and often draw 2 when called....you'll find out who will Always call your raises and drawing 2....you'll find out which players will Always raise when strong and just check or call when having mediocre hands.
Some players just check or minraise with a 10-low and raise really big with very strong hands.

Identifying these players and their behaviour and making notes about this, can make or save you a lot of chips.

Find out who's capable of snowing ...there's not many, but surprise,surprise....I do it sometimes.

Slowplaying predraw monsters often works surprisingly well, while playing them hard predraw often scares everyone away.

Take special care of players you've never seen before....pretty often new players have no clue at all, thinking their boat or flush is the nuts, so they're basically giving you free chips.

Keep in mind flushes and straights count, so for example , drawing to a 7 or8-lo while having 2345 of 1 suit is less profitable than drawing with 2346 with different suits.

Now, this is just some general stuff, which might or might not help, but with a little common sense you should be able to play these tournaments profitable.

Most important imo is taking detailed notes of the regulars....
Most of them most Always play their hands the same way, so if you recognize their behaviour you really gain an edge.

About calculators....here's some links....(hope it's allowed)

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/deuce-to-seven

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=l27&b=&d=&h=2d+4d+6s+8h+/+Qh 3s+5s+6h+9h+Ts
 
toots babos

toots babos

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thank you very much for your follow up.

i have a good grasp on the game itself however never tried to go deeply into the maths side of the game which i think now i should since im taking a backseat into playing for $$$ at the minute for a few reasons i wont go into.

i would mainly have played this game in cash games and whilst mostly i'd play a full ring game of 7 which seemed to be an easy strategy of play monster draws or 3 bet pats in position with the intent of checking it down, I often played a few games HU/3 handed higher up in stakes so thats where i feel knowing equity for your hand/draws will come in handy for making borderline plays.

i quite like the look of the 2nd link you posted with the equity calculator, i must put some more examples into it but from my quick fiddle around with it i notice the hand sample size is quite small for the calculations although im sure that the %'s would be near enough bang on or 1% out here and there.

do you have much experience from playing a short handed version of this game?

from what i've read and to back it up from my experiences pat J's and pat Q's tend to be quite profitable in most situations due to a pat J being a favourite vs a 1 draw hand and a pat Q being a favourite vs a 2 draw hand.

you mention something about snowing.... now im not totally sure if im correct with what i believe this to be but is this when you do a "fake pat" ie. stand pat on a pair and play your hand as if it were a premium?

if so then then i find this to be a great strategy more so in a NL 5 card draw game than a 2-7 SD game since in 5 card draw your opponents tend to feel they need something like a flush or higher to call you down and most of the time will fold better hands to you because of this but in 2-7 most of the opponents will still call you with hands as bad as a bad 10 without even thinking but i still tend to do this once every 50hands or so in a tourney if i need to make something happen due to not getting any hands and when used right in combination with your image being tight it seems to work more often.

will you be playing the micro millions event 2-7 SD draw game?

if i have the time and the funds available i will give it a crack and if you do maybe we'll meet....... on the final table :)
 
10058765

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i would mainly have played this game in cash games and whilst mostly i'd play a full ring game of 7 which seemed to be an easy strategy of play monster draws or 3 bet pats in position with the intent of checking it down, I often played a few games HU/3 handed higher up in stakes so thats where i feel knowing equity for your hand/draws will come in handy for making borderline plays.

Well, where in those tournaments I know and have detailed notes on most players which I think is more important than doing exact equity calculations, I agree in cashgames these calculations are way more important.
Basically, in a tournament I just try most of the time to avoid borderline situations, in a cashgame you should take every opportunity you're slightly ahead because in the long run it'll make you money.
So yeah, I think in a cashgame your calculations should be more detailed.

i quite like the look of the 2nd link you posted with the equity calculator, i must put some more examples into it but from my quick fiddle around with it i notice the hand sample size is quite small for the calculations although im sure that the %'s would be near enough bang on or 1% out here and there.

Glad it's of use.

do you have much experience from playing a short handed version of this game?
Cash, not at all, tournaments yeah, because I made so many deep runs, final tables and first and second place finishes so I automatically got to play shorthanded, as well being shortstacked as being the big stack.

from what i've read and to back it up from my experiences pat J's and pat Q's tend to be quite profitable in most situations due to a pat J being a favourite vs a 1 draw hand and a pat Q being a favourite vs a 2 draw hand.
True, and also if they draw you'll most of the time get to know if your J or Q is good enough because of their betting patterns.
Tho, being ahead predraw with these hands, it's still borderline, so I tend to try to get to a cheap showdown (pot control whenever possible).


you mention something about snowing.... now im not totally sure if im correct with what i believe this to be but is this when you do a "fake pat" ie. stand pat on a pair and play your hand as if it were a premium?
Correct...basically it's just setting up a coldstone bluff with the intention patting a trashhand to look very strong.
I only do it in position, so if I get callers to my predraw raise I'll get to know how many cards they draw.
Obv, if there's callers also patting, or a lot of callers just drawing 1 I cutoff the snow and switch to damage control :D

if so then then i find this to be a great strategy more so in a NL 5 card draw game than a 2-7 SD game since in 5 card draw your opponents tend to feel they need something like a flush or higher to call you down and most of the time will fold better hands to you because of this but in 2-7 most of the opponents will still call you with hands as bad as a bad 10 without even thinking but i still tend to do this once every 50hands or so in a tourney if i need to make something happen due to not getting any hands and when used right in combination with your image being tight it seems to work more often.

It's a great strategy in drawing games like 2-7 , 5-card draw and Badugi, but as with every strategy, we don't want to overdo it and we really need to take care against which players we do it (hence playernotes come in very handy).

will you be playing the micro millions event 2-7 SD draw game?
I definitely plan on playing if it fits my schedule.
if i have the time and the funds available i will give it a crack and if you do maybe we'll meet....... on the final table :)
Can't do anything about your time, but if it is about the funds I would be more than glad to work out a backing agreement with you if necessary.
 
BluffMeAllIn

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Guess this should be 8/47 * 4/46 because for the first card it doesn't matter which of them you catch.

that would be correct, bit of a duh moment lol. thx
 
toots babos

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thanks for you reply 10058765

i've never really made notes on players in this game as i tend to keep most of the information i need stuck into my brain but if i were to start what would you suggest would be the most valuable bits of information needed to note?

as far as the backing offer i appreciate it but it's not that it's too much to afford it's that i'm very reluctant to deposit any money at that minute due to awful BRM, now i know the concept of BRM and while i try to stick to it i get these moments where i chuck it all out of the window for 1 session and that's all it takes to blow your roll unfortunately. i reckon i'd be able to make some real money online if i could just somehow stick to BRM...... so at the moment im trying to rebuild a roll playing the privilege freerolls which isn't going the best due to a massive cold deck hitting me in the face but i will continue to try

you say you've made a lot of notes on your players in 2-7..... i'd love to hear what you have noted on me if you dont mind sharing? :)
 
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count can be any number but that is really another question but the most important thing is the game opponents all seen on the game you have the chance
 
10058765

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thanks for you reply 10058765

i've never really made notes on players in this game as i tend to keep most of the information i need stuck into my brain but if i were to start what would you suggest would be the most valuable bits of information needed to note?

Notes about betting/calling behaviour.
For example there's a player who always shows the same behaviour after drawing.
A check means bad hand, a minraise means a 9 or 10 and a big raise means a 7 or 8.
I just noted: "big raise is strong" , to me that is enough to know what to do against this player.
Another player always calls raises after drawing, even with an ace.
I just noted : "calls with A".
So if I'm against this player I know I can't bluff him of his hand, but can valuebet big with my strong hands.

Tho, before even making notes, I start with colour tagging players.
Unpredictable very good players I tag green, solid but just good players get yellow, average get orange and plain bad get red.


...... so at the moment im trying to rebuild a roll playing the privilege freerolls which isn't going the best due to a massive cold deck hitting me in the face but i will continue to try
At least wish you the best of rungood while trying to rebuild. Don't know if you're already in the freeroll club, but the CC freerolls are the best you can find and a few deep runs in them could make you a good start.

you say you've made a lot of notes on your players in 2-7..... i'd love to hear what you have noted on me if you dont mind sharing? :)

Haha...have to admit I'm terribly lazy lately.....believe I have no notes on you....not even a colour :eek:

edit...guess you don't have enough posts for the freeroll club yet, tho at the moment you're egligible I strongly advise to join.
 
toots babos

toots babos

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i like your noting system...... i may have to be cheeky and start copying that system :)

tho only colour system i have ever used is red for very good players which not many players out there are coloured red cos i just seem to come up against monkeys that are just clicking random buttons!

no i dont have enough posts yet to join the freeroll club yet but as soon as i have about 90-100 i may apply as im sure many of my posts may be deemed to be not good quality but once i have enough quality i will be joining you and the rest of the sharks in the freeroll club

good luck on the felts
 
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